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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I mean someone knows something or something. I hate that things like this only happen after hours. I closed half of my positions this morning and I am debating if I should close the remaining ones for a loss tomorrow as well. The strength of TSLA in the last couple of days makes me nervous.
$224!
Someone stepped on the pedal for some reason. I don’t see any news. It started about 3:52pm. Maybe short squeeze? I wonder if it holds.
Based on option flow and delta hedging as of today right before close MM need 210-215 range for 6/9. They may have to pound it down tomorrow. We’ll see.
Wed/Thu was setting up as bearish:
My poor -C215’s 6/9 if it keeps running
. At least I have the shares to cover it.What happened to the expected “we need a rest day” for the run? As always, nothing normal with TSLA.
IMO (and keep in mind it's not a great opinion)
During the closing cross it looked to be another fund gobbling up shares. Which caused the price spike from $219 --> $221+
During after hours shorts are covering because of the bullish close and now it looks to me that TSLA has broken the down trendline.
Funds and institutions will not buy in after hours, so this would be short sellers or Hedge funds closing short positions or adding in expectation of a continued pop tomorrow.
john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
May regret this but opened 10 -C265's for 7/21. Indicators show the stock is overbought, but who knows it may keep running.
This is the first time I have all my covered call ITM. I thought $217 was going to be a strong resistance. My $217.5 and $215's still have decent rolls but my $210's not so much. I am waiting until Thursday or Friday to see what happens.
I bought 200 shares AH at 224.xx to cover a couple -c220s this week.
I’ve been hoping for a pullback or a breather but right now I’m feeling like the other times my CCs got run over (i.e., when we first broke 500 in 2019 and when we broke 1000 after Hertz)- watching like a deer in headlights wondering how long it can keep going.
My -c195-205s over the next several weeks look pretty gone right now but at least my long position is starting to recover and puts are making money. I could roll the ITM calls up and out to 2025 but I kind of like keeping them as “insurance” for the next dip.
I’ve been hoping for a pullback or a breather but right now I’m feeling like the other times my CCs got run over (i.e., when we first broke 500 in 2019 and when we broke 1000 after Hertz)- watching like a deer in headlights wondering how long it can keep going.
My -c195-205s over the next several weeks look pretty gone right now but at least my long position is starting to recover and puts are making money. I could roll the ITM calls up and out to 2025 but I kind of like keeping them as “insurance” for the next dip.
bballshinobi
Member
Bears capitulated. Smells like the blowoff top. QQQ and SPY and the mega techs seem to be doing it too - just not at the same time.
We often hear “too high too fast can’t last” and yet that’s where we are right now. Will the rule still work? I’ve got to say yes since I’ve seen TSLA reverse when it seemed certain it’d keep going. I’d get scared out of sold short calls at a loss, punishment for not having faith in this rule (and following emotions too much).
IIRC TSLA also doesn’t like exceeding or hugging the top BB for too long (although I haven’t back-tested this to confirm). All this to say there may still be a ray of hope for those of us with 6/9 -C215, we’ll see.
I have the following to nurse:
6/9
-C215 (x7)
-C245 (x18)
6/16
-C225 (x6)
-C230 (x2)
-C243.33 (x14)
6/30
-C215 (x6)
-C220 (x15
)
-C300 (x25)
7/21
-C240 (x15) — Looking to BTC on any retests
-C245 (x4) — Same
9/15
-C240 (x19) — This one is likely most dangerous. Will likely roll or BTC with -P money.
Will be monitoring closely to decide if to roll or let the shares go and immediately buy back for the next open short call contract. Or sell NTM puts and use the $$ to BTC some calls on dips as some advised here. Or maybe buy a bunch of shares on dips now (using margin) as protection, though finally being 100% off margin I’d hate to start again, especially since I have proven to be terrible with stops, not to mention they don’t work in after or pre-market trading.
Another takeaway for me is I will no longer sell short calls more than two weeks out. Too much to deal with and they’re not necessarily profitable. I believe this has been borne out here by others as well.
IIRC TSLA also doesn’t like exceeding or hugging the top BB for too long (although I haven’t back-tested this to confirm). All this to say there may still be a ray of hope for those of us with 6/9 -C215, we’ll see.
I have the following to nurse:
6/9
-C215 (x7)
-C245 (x18)
6/16
-C225 (x6)
-C230 (x2)
-C243.33 (x14)
6/30
-C215 (x6)
-C220 (x15
)-C300 (x25)
7/21
-C240 (x15) — Looking to BTC on any retests
-C245 (x4) — Same
9/15
-C240 (x19) — This one is likely most dangerous. Will likely roll or BTC with -P money.
Will be monitoring closely to decide if to roll or let the shares go and immediately buy back for the next open short call contract. Or sell NTM puts and use the $$ to BTC some calls on dips as some advised here. Or maybe buy a bunch of shares on dips now (using margin) as protection, though finally being 100% off margin I’d hate to start again, especially since I have proven to be terrible with stops, not to mention they don’t work in after or pre-market trading.
Another takeaway for me is I will no longer sell short calls more than two weeks out. Too much to deal with and they’re not necessarily profitable. I believe this has been borne out here by others as well.
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I also have a bunch of -c195 and -c200 expiring over the next couple of weeks that are hemorrhaging pretty badly, but I still feel like we're very oversold at this level and will have to revert at some point.
Current roll of a -c200/Jun16 to a -c200/Jun23 is still offering over a dollar in premium, so as long as you're ok taking the short term realized loss on the roll (understanding that not everyone is), then eventually you'll recoup all the accumulated roll-related losses when the SP finally takes a breather.
I plan on doing this every week until some semblance of normalcy returns. That said, I fear I may be running out of runway as P&D and earnings are right around the corner - and if either announcement is stronger than expected, then we're off to the races again...
SebastienBonny
Member
Good idea, planning to do the same, but with a 220CC. Might combine rolling for premium and slight strike improvement when possibile.
I'm on the train to Amsterdam, so plenty of time to write long post, sorry
The number of times I've bailed at a loss on calls going deeper ITM with every passing day, flipped to puts only for the SP to reverse and wipe me out in the opposite direction, and vice-versa... so yes, this might run up all the way to ATH, or could reverse tomorrow for no apparent reason or some unexpected negative news, macro, etc.
Yeah, I'm still holding the 50x July 21st 1:3 -c200 ratio straddles, but they're underwritten by Dec 2025 -c140 & -c200 LEAPS that are already up more than 50%, so it's a winning trade. Yes, the calls cap the profits after 215, but I'll probably roll the lot, weekly, monthly or quarterly, take the extrinsic, I don't know, will see where we are -> any premiums taken before closing out the lot, including selling the LEAPS, are all profits on top. Other option is to roll up a strike or two, add a few more puts, perhaps...
Mentioned many times, but things get bad for me when I make too many assumptions, and position for that: "this is going to ATH", "markets are about to crash", "P&D will be blowout, stock's going to moon" -> all these have led to large directional bets that ended up in misery. That's why the current straddles win regardless of the share price: I get shares cheap if it crashes, I get 30% return on total portfolio value if the SP stays up above 200, I get 15% return with an ATM close and a juicy roll, hence I sleep at night (for the moment at any case)
In the past, if I was wanting to save all those LEAPS, I would have tried to get out of all the position in one go. Given the the ensuing trauma, if I were to do this now I would probably look roll 80% of the calls out, and recuperate the remaining revenue puts, or whatever %age works
Personally I still do not trust this market. From all I'm reading, this run is being fuelled by seven stocks: Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Tesla -> very narrow market width and seems to be fuelled by the AI hype. Will it continue, will it pause, will is dump, I have no idea, so I make no assumptions
Not advice, never advice, just thoughts
Not to imply that it shouldn't, price seems to be detached from gamma and OI. Is that an indicator that this is a short burst? I have no clue. A good OI increase is seen at C240, C220 remains the highest Call OI. 200 is the highest near the money put OI followed by 210 which is also max pain.
Starting in September, we went from over 300 to under 110 in about 3 months. It was basically relentless, and robbed me of 2/3 of my retirement as I had to sell 2/3 of my shares to pay off BPSs at full loss to avoid Margin calls. I don't know if we are going straight back to 300, but it could happen. We could be there a month from now. A pullback is not required, but this does feel like a short squeeze + FOMO now.
Well.... This aged extremely poorly.... lol
Not concerned as I have a bunch of theta to burn and these are not ITM yet...
I still have July $250's that are well red and the plan was to open some $250P's to straddle these which I am looking to do this morning.
Will wait and see for next week on the $230C's that are 70% red as of now.
Closed the $210P's at 95% this morning
Holding 06/16 -
Bought $205P's
Sold $230C's
07/21 - $250C's
07/21 - $250P's (Just sold at $30 each to match the Calls)
SebastienBonny
Member
To (sort of) keep track of the SP I rolled 220 CC for friday to 225 CC for next week, even got me some dollars credit.
Also rolled 7/21 225 CC to 12/16 270 CC. Those are shares I wouldn't want to lose, if we get a pullback, I can still roll that back in.
If we don't, I can still go further for a higher strike (one I'm willing to let those shares go for)
Also rolled 7/21 225 CC to 12/16 270 CC. Those are shares I wouldn't want to lose, if we get a pullback, I can still roll that back in.
If we don't, I can still go further for a higher strike (one I'm willing to let those shares go for)
I rolled my -C215 6/9 to -C220 6/23 for some credit.
STO -C230 6/9 @ $4.25. Thought process: This means getting $234.25 for the shares vs $215 and change if it went ITM this Friday. If it doesn’t I still have the shares and can BTC the -C220 6/23 on any correction, and earned a bunch of premium along the way to help offset any losses if the -C220 is still ITM on 6/23.
STO -C230 6/9 @ $4.25. Thought process: This means getting $234.25 for the shares vs $215 and change if it went ITM this Friday. If it doesn’t I still have the shares and can BTC the -C220 6/23 on any correction, and earned a bunch of premium along the way to help offset any losses if the -C220 is still ITM on 6/23.
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I'm hesitant to move the strikes of my short puts further up. I'm positive about the future of Tesla, but I feel this rally does not have a fundamental reason, but a technical one (short covering, call buying). Those rallies usally end in tears, as we have seen in the past. The fact that the SP is moving in the opposite direction of the main indexes today is another sign. I wonder what the catalyst for a drop will be.
But I could be completely wrong ofcourse, the past has also shown that these technical factors can carry the SP much higher than we ever thought possible.
But I could be completely wrong ofcourse, the past has also shown that these technical factors can carry the SP much higher than we ever thought possible.
CPI and Quad-Witching next week *may* bring some softness back where we can do some housekeeping on our various positions.
Here’s hoping that those that said it may run to $230 then correct are right.
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