Lots of synthetic long positions created today!!!!!!! The whales know the golden cross is mathematically 100% certain. Not sure how that Aug 18th 4-leg spread works.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Maybe +--+
Estimated returns
As at 23rd Jun 2023 (TSLA $261.30)
Entry cost: $2,110.00 see details
Max risk: $2,110.00 (at TSLA$210.00)
Max return: $2,890.00 (at TSLA$260.01)
Max return on risk: 137% (877% ann.)
Breakevens at expiry: $293.91, 231.09
Probability of profit: 37.1% ?
TSLA 4 Legs calculator
So without boring you all with the details, all my own fault, but I can't login to my broker until they send me new codes via snail-mail (3-5 days), and I have 30x -p260's expiring today 
I can, in theory call them and place an order, but never did that before and don't really know how it would work. Thinking I might let them run, whichever way, 3000x TSLA would be quite facilitative at this point in time...
I can, in theory call them and place an order, but never did that before and don't really know how it would work. Thinking I might let them run, whichever way, 3000x TSLA would be quite facilitative at this point in time...
My big options lesson is Steve Jobs died, causing a significant drop in AAPL stock that my overly aggressive investment strategy nearly broke me. (I had naked puts that were the worst issue.) Lesson Learned: you need to be able to quantify your risks and exposure in terms of price and time and have an exit strategy if things go pear shaped.
Today any puts that I sell have an exposure of less than 5% of my portfolio, in aggregate.
But, as a general strategy and lesson learned I would say that you want to always spread out your maturity dates and strike prices. How you do this depends on if you are working and put money into your account every paycheck, or if you try to work only with money in the account... or if you need to draw down the account periodically for expenses. I like having maturity dates spread out at least 3 months, and ideally in a continuous ladder that keeps getting extended. Right now I just have Jan '24 and Jan '25 calls; usually I like having a summer expiration as well. You can either sell the calls after holding for 12 months and leverage up if the stock has been increasing, or hold on to them closer to expiration and get assigned with all or part of the calls depending on your cash situation.
I don't always make rational decisions, but long term I want to accumulate shares (or calls as a proxy), so I am generally less likely to sell when logic would have me cut and run. I try to keep focus on if my investment thesis has changed rather than get caught up in the thesis of a particular trade. (Elon's behavior made that difficult last year.)
It will be fine $265+ close today - not advice.....So without boring you all with the details, all my own fault, but I can't login to my broker until they send me new codes via snail-mail (3-5 days), and I have 30x -p260's expiring today
I can, in theory call them and place an order, but never did that before and don't really know how it would work. Thinking I might let them run, whichever way, 3000x TSLA would be quite facilitative at this point in time...
Edit - lol.... I was very wrong so far....
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^^^ I closed all positions for this week, maybe closer to 257.5 EOD? 6/30 p230 or p235 look good but it feels like we are in a "holding with a possibility to slide down" pattern...
Depending on the broker, you should be able to give them the same direction.. “market sell/buy, limit sell/buy, ITTT, etc”. Figure out your exit plan and put it in. The only downside is if you want to be nimble, and track real time pricing and make real time changes - ur at the mercy of a phone call and getting an advisor.So without boring you all with the details, all my own fault, but I can't login to my broker until they send me new codes via snail-mail (3-5 days), and I have 30x -p260's expiring today
I can, in theory call them and place an order, but never did that before and don't really know how it would work. Thinking I might let them run, whichever way, 3000x TSLA would be quite facilitative at this point in time...
At the TIME was one simply trading, for sure, one had to have the $$ to cover or take the placement - but it’s a good lesson as well that IF one was actually PUT AAPL back then, that money is worth about 15X today.. that’s hard to get elsewhere… sure, TSLA at that time would be worth what, 200x at peak, 150x today? many other possibilities…but they are few and far between and often very uncertain. I parked $$ in MSFT at that time for a LTH, today it’s ‘only’ 15x, but builds a nice foundation and asset for call selling. On the $MSFT position from that period, my adjusted share price (fortunately the IRS doesn’t consider this when calculating capital gains!) is NEGATIVE ~$80 per share. ;-)
I often think about the $35K I put into apple in July 1997 at a split adjusted DIME and sold years later..but had I held that minuscule (it wasn’t at the time) position to today, well we can all do that math.
I think of selling puts as a way to be paid for an entry that I am willing to take. All things being equal.
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I was thinking the same seeing MP at 257.50 and more puts than calls at 260, although what we often see is allowing the SP to dip to encourage this with +c260's to sell, then let the price meander up to wipe-out the puts before close
Yeah, this is what I figured... I'll see where we are around 1 hour before close
so far so good... likely depends on how strongly Max Pain attracts the SP this afternoon
Right now looking like I'll be assigned 3000x TSLA @$260, net $251, I'll use these to help roll my DITM calls out - plus remove the calls covered by my 15x Jan 2024 -c233's, so I can look to sell them in the coming weeks/months, extrinsic starts to wash out of those, I should claw back what I can while I can
Was looking all rosy a few hours back, was there some negative news or FEDiots speaking? Ah yes, I see that cretin Bullard was rolled out today to spew his garbage, was it that?
Anyway, I'll take the shares, the only annoying part of that is the 0.3% tax (capped at €1600 - how weird is that, helping there big boys) and 0.35% exercise fee, so on $760k that's around $4500
Edit: other possibility, was it a rejection of the Golden Cross? We've seen that in the past... I know we were close, but not whether we got a cigar, or not
Edit 2: I'm seeing in the other thread that after the last Golden Cross, erm, cross, it took 20 days for the stock to wake up
Was looking all rosy a few hours back, was there some negative news or FEDiots speaking? Ah yes, I see that cretin Bullard was rolled out today to spew his garbage, was it that?
Anyway, I'll take the shares, the only annoying part of that is the 0.3% tax (capped at €1600 - how weird is that, helping there big boys) and 0.35% exercise fee, so on $760k that's around $4500
Edit: other possibility, was it a rejection of the Golden Cross? We've seen that in the past... I know we were close, but not whether we got a cigar, or not
Edit 2: I'm seeing in the other thread that after the last Golden Cross, erm, cross, it took 20 days for the stock to wake up
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It all worked out in the end, just a lot of pain in the middle. My issue was I was selling puts so I could buy calls. Right after Jobs died and the price dropped significantly I had a lot of trouble trying to figure out what my risk was; I treated each option in isolation rather than looking at my overall portfolio... which was at least 90% AAPL. (I think it was actually leveraged at 130% AAPL at the time...).
With the stock price down I not only was assigned all the puts, but the calls became worthless and the margin liability forced me to liquidate a lot of stuff.
I created a manual way to try to understand risk, but it was far from perfect and once I was out of range I didn't realize just how bad it could get. The time domain element of a prolonged drop in stock price was especially hard for me to understand.
I'll just say I learned a lot from the experience. I still make mistakes sometimes, but in my 50's I am much less of a risk taker than I was in my late 30's. The risks I take are done mostly to keep me interested in the portfolio.
FYI, lots of reports on Twitter of a Russian coup with Putin on the run. Market may go crazy this week depending on how quickly this goes and in what direction. Just a reminder that hell can break loose at any time.
Edit: Now on mainstream news as well.
Edit: Now on mainstream news as well.
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SebastienBonny
Member
Well the war with Ukraine may be over when Russians are starting to kill eachother…
It is indeed very interesting and unexpected news..I doubt nearly ANYONE had “possible power shift in Russia” or “possible end to Ukraine conflict” on their bingo cards this weekend .I would expect sometime in the next 72 hours, oil markets to FALL farther which is a bit unexpected - although we were on that path already due to China and other global factors, over supply being the biggest IMO.
I think that for Ukraine, this is the best outcome for now and will only enhance their counter, or just now OFFENSIVE which they should be doing hard.
For markets, assuming there is vision to an end to this ‘conflict’, I wouldn’t expect too much of an overall peace dividend to occur as frankly it hasn’t been much of an impact for over nine months. The markets have been moving more on global macro, sector themes and country specific systemic issues, so IMHO any disproportionate rally’s should be sold or at least considered quite suspect.
Interesting times…To bring it back on topic I did find it funny (certainly not funny of course) to see images of missile strikes in Kiev today, but in the TV images I counted THREE TESLA model S parked on the streets.. I wonder what the overall actual presence there is.
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Don't want to derail this thread with any details. But markets in general don't seem to like instability/change until they know for sure the change will be good. Possibility of instability, someone crazier have access to nukes, possibility of WW3, oil prices going up/down can all cause a market crash next week. My -265 Puts for Friday may end up way ITM faster than I would like. Rolling gets pretty good premiums if the SP is close, but it won't with an SP closer to 220. The market was ugly yesterday, and it won't surprise me if someone already knew something....
PSA-
Insofar as some of us consider Ukraine events relevant to TSLA options, in case any of us aren't aware, there's an awesome thread about the Ukraine war on this forum!
Insofar as some of us consider Ukraine events relevant to TSLA options, in case any of us aren't aware, there's an awesome thread about the Ukraine war on this forum!
myt-e-s-l-a
Member
Goldman Sachs downgrades Tesla, citing difficult pricing environment for electric vehicles
Frankly, I never really say things like this but this leads me to think GS simply didn’t get enough $TSLA during the last pull backs… but anyway, IF they truly believe that then they could only sound believable if they downgrade the entire sector? If anyone is going to win a price war - and well nobody really wins a price war at least not initially - it would be Tesla at this point what with their near total vertical integration and long term commodities and input contracts-and relative deep pockets if just compared to their true BEV counterparts.
Some side of the house sold a bunch of OTM calls and they want to keep all the premium. Nothing new here.
Just opinion, not a recommendation.
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