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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Need I remind you of the nightmare that was the Q4'21 earnings call? Stock tanked the day after that call. I believe that was the first call after which Elon said he would only be present when needed, came onto the call for a product road map update, then gave no road map whatsoever and proceeded to crap all over the idea of a "Model 2" (for lack of a better term). I remember having the worst feeling after that earnings call I've ever had from any Tesla earnings.

EDIT: Yes, this was the call I was thinking of: "The CEO also said the company is not currently working on a $25,000 compact electric vehicle, contrary to the ambitions he announced at a Tesla Battery Day presentation in 2020."


Tomorrow will have me wondering what to do with the 15 7/21 $270 puts I bought yesterday and this morning.
I was referring to the change from before the call started, to when the call ended. Maybe there have been larger drops during that hour, but this was impressive. The next two days will be interesting.
 
Earnings Summary



*Tesla 2Q Rev $24.9B >TSLA

Tesla Q2 EPS $0.91 Beats $0.82 Estimate

Tesla Q2 EPS $0.91 Beats $0.82 Estimate, Sales $24.93B Beat $24.48B Estimate

Tesla Q2 rev. $24.9 billion, 47% higher on-year

*Tesla Q2 Total Production 479,700, Up 86% YoY; Total Deliveries 466,140, Up 83% YoY

*Tesla Inc Says Do Not Expect A Meaningful Increase In Weekly Production Run Rate In Shanghai Factory; Quarterly Profitability Positively Impacted By Lower Cost Per Vehicle, Which Includes Lower Raw

Tesla keeps 2023 goal of producing about 1.8 million EVs

*Tesla Inc Says Now Testing Cyber Truck Vehicles Around The World For Final Certification And Validation;

Quarterly Profitability Negatively Impacted By Reduced Asp Due To Mix And Pricing

*Tesla Q2 Operating Margin 9.6%, Down From 14.6% YoY; Co. Cites Reduced ASP Due To Mix And Pricing, Cost Of Production Ramp Of 4680 Cells, Increase In Opex Driven By Cybertruck/AI And Negative FX

Tesla Continues to Maintain $184M in Digital Assets on Its Balance Sheet, With Its Cryptocurrency Holdings Remaining Constant for the Third Consecutive Quarter

*Elon Musk Says We Expect To Use Both Nvidia And Dojo

*Elon Musk Says Open To Licensing Full Self Driving Software And In Early Discussions With A Major OEM

*Tesla Inc Says Increased 4680 Cell Production In Texas By 80% In Q2 Over Q1

*Tesla Inc Says Continuing To See Improvement In Commodity Costs

*Musk Says Will Allow Transfer Of FSD, As Part Of One-time Amnesty In Q3

*Tesla Inc Says Benefited From $150M-$250M In IRA Credits In Q2

*Elon Musk Says Co Has Made 10 Optimus Robots

*Elon Musk Says We Will Take Nvidia Hardware As Fast As They Will Deliver To Us
 
With this result, even if 298 was the top, which I doubt, I don't see us pulling back any further than 240 by the end of August.
Touching 20 months downward channel resistance since November 2021.
Margin contractions during earnings calls.
-4% premarket.
I might have to emerge from my roadtrip offline mode to roll back in my Jan25 370CC right when I am passing by the Texas Gigafactory today.

Don’t know if I should wait 1 or 2 days to see the break of support actually happening and reversal confirmation.
 
Glad I closed my $250 puts yesterday right before the close and didn't roll to 7/28. I'll sell new ones this morning around the open, just need to pick strikes. Anyone else writing weekly (or longer dated) puts at this point?
Holding 225 CC for next week.
At this time I don't think we will go there that fast, so will keep a close eye on premiums.
If there's room to roll 1 month for about 6, that'll be a possiblity.
If not, I'll let it execute and sell put from there or buy back the contract, sell the shares and sell put from there.

Ideally I'll sell 225 put or a bit above, probably weekly if it's worth it (guess we'll need to get to 260 to be worth it).
 
Touching 20 months downward channel resistance since November 2021.
Margin contractions during earnings calls.
-4% premarket.
I might have to emerge from my roadtrip offline mode to roll back in my Jan25 370CC right when I am passing by the Texas Gigafactory today.

Don’t know if I should wait 1 or 2 days to see the break of support actually happening and reversal confirmation.
Friday rebalancing is a wild card IMHO…smokem if you got ‘em. I think had I bought puts, I’d take the money… sold calls, take the money.
 
Glad I closed my $250 puts yesterday right before the close and didn't roll to 7/28. I'll sell new ones this morning around the open, just need to pick strikes. Anyone else writing weekly (or longer dated) puts at this point?
I closed out puts prior to the call as well and I plan on waiting to see what happens today. Maybe open some csp near end of day but I may sit it out until next week to open the put positions again after things settle
 
Glad I closed my $250 puts yesterday right before the close and didn't roll to 7/28. I'll sell new ones this morning around the open, just need to pick strikes. Anyone else writing weekly (or longer dated) puts at this point?
Have 50x -p290's in play for this week, will probably roll to the same strike and see what happens, seems a bit fake to me, this dip

However, my 24x -c270's, 4x -c287.50's & 13x -c290's are very happy with the dip - thinking to roll the lot to straddle the puts next week

Of course all could change at open, and IV might stay up a bit given FOMC next week
 
Hard to stay away -
STO $300C - $10.50 each
STO- $325C - $3.25 each
BTO - $275P - $2.25 each

Small positions but playing with earnings is hard to walk away from. Plus I am thinking to convert some core shares to cash for a business venture that I started late last month and wouldn't mind the extra capital.

Cheers and good luck to all

Edit - for clarity

This is for 07/21 expiration - it is a monthly and max pain is way below us - so reasonable expectation for a sell off for how much we have run up.

Looks like I got it right this time - closed call side at 95% this morning - sold half the bought puts as well just now at $4.25 each
Letting the rest of them run till tomorrow.
Nice week!
 
Rolls my friday calls while IV was still high to next friday.... some $330 strike (from 330 now) and some $340 strike (from 342.50), $2.20 and $2 respectively net credits on the rolls.

These are all in non-taxable accounts so if there's an unexpected blowout and I have to let em go I can live with it (or probably safely roll up/out unless it spikes crazy fast tomorrow morning)... but if not I'm happy to take >$2 on average for 1.5 weeks of time and over 10% OTM strikes.


Closed all of these just after open for ~60 and -50 cents respectively so net gain over 4 days of roughly $3/share (~85% profit) across the board
 
Just FYI: If you feel hairy about a short put. Remember: the initial gap down will always get filled. 291 should be reached shortly. Fix your puts then.

EDIT: if not shortly, but eventually.

Examples from much more dramatic drops in the past.

1689860800959.png
 
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Holding 225 CC for next week.
At this time I don't think we will go there that fast, so will keep a close eye on premiums.
If there's room to roll 1 month for about 6, that'll be a possiblity.
If not, I'll let it execute and sell put from there or buy back the contract, sell the shares and sell put from there.

Ideally I'll sell 225 put or a bit above, probably weekly if it's worth it (guess we'll need to get to 260 to be worth it).

Same here I will let some calls go and sell ATM puts to try to recue other contracts. I also though about moving some contracts sideways to December 2025 and use that premium to close out some underwater CC but it sucks to have $215 covered calls for that date. I move down my covered calls to $285 and sold $270p's.
 
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Closing both c280/c300 CC position post Earnings. These were good/profitable hedge . Trade was based gross margin compression. which declined to 18.2%, and 19.3% in the first quarter and lower than the 25% reported a year ago. Elon is sacrificing gross margins (price reduction) for growth ( deliveries).

BTC 10x tsla 230721C280 @ 1.7 profit 15.6k

BTC 10x tsla 230721C300 @ 0.21 profit 5.2k
 
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Did I miss some negative news or something, this price action is quite perplexing...


Elon being Elon on the earnings call, basically "Economy is terrible LOL" and "Yeah we'll totes keep cutting prices and margin if needed to keep moving cars" and "We will make less cars in Q3 due to retooling factories" and "Robotaxis soon FUR SURE THIS TIME" and "Also Cyborgs!"