Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

Still going to be selling ATM calls and buying 10% OTM puts for next week - most likely later today / tomorrow

Maybe just to be sure, I will go for 10-15% OTM -C too tomorrow after the projected (dead cat) bounce. -C 200’s for next week are tempting but what if I won’t be right again and 217 afterhours today was the bottom. or a mix of both, say 5 OTM against 1DITM

 

[Max Plaid]

Maybe just to be sure, I will go for 10-15% OTM -C too tomorrow after the projected (dead cat) bounce. -C 200’s for next week are tempting but what if I won’t be right again and 217 afterhours today was the bottom. or a mix of both, say 5 OTM against 1DITM

Damn, you missed the bottom by 21c!!

By recent standards, is now "ripping" AH...

 

[SpeedyEddy]

So much that could turn things around, but when?

macro is king now, so Q3 P&D and especially Earnings must have proof. We are nearing the Death Valley for EV over ICE disruption, in which there is not enough EV-supply in general against falling ICE demand, so when used EV’s get priced higher, even when new EV’s are getting cheaper, you know Tesla has the market for years to come, any car market. FSD , Robotaxi, Tesla Energy, TeslaBot As icing on a very big cake!
That is the moment, you will be glad to be (and stay) long. At this moment,you already know, SP is ridiculously low, so take care with -C and be ready to go -P short term after we rise 10% from a bottom at least . -P long term is interesting already, as are LEAPs, remember what most of us did wrong end of ‘22. Don’t do the same now!!!!

 

[OrthoSurg]

To all fellow HODLERs
Do not despair
I thank everyone who post here and many technical analysts and EW proponents
Call me superstitious, ( which I tend to think I am not ) but the one chart that really been working for past 3 yrs is when I go on vacation
Tesla usually starts the run on Day 1 of my vacation and continues for a few days after the vacation ends
This has worked 100% of the times since January 2020
The magnitude of the spike depends on whether the vacation is with buddies or family( vacation with buddies tends to start a gamma squeeze) and vacationing with family a modest spike

October 2021- started spiking while on flight to Vegas enroute to Zion and gamma squeeze gave us ATH
May 2023-started spiking from 160 while on flight to Reykjavik and squeeze ended at 300

Guess what - vacation starts Monday - expecting a modest spike this time as it’s vacation with family .

Good times and tidings next week
We bounce
Not a trading advice
And I am the least superstitious and believe myself to be a very logical person of science

You just convinced me to throw in 400 grands of ATM Dec2025 LEAPS tomorrow just before close.

If someone else wants to discourage me of doing so, you have less than 20 hours to submit your emotional irrational arguments since we all know market is irrational.

 

[Jim Holder]

As the week (and month) develops, my 2nd scenario seems more and more likely, meaning the 240-298 run was a dead cat bounce and we are on the final leg down. Reasons:

1/ The rule of alternation that applies to corrections states that if the first leg down is a simple zig zag, the immediate bounce can stretch out in an intricate fashion to achieve a kind of alternation. The 2nd leg down can be even more intricate. This doesn't usually happen in reverse order. The current leg down from 298 (red) is simply taking too long and too intricate looking to be the first leg down. It is looking more and more like the yellow zig zag was wave A, green zig zag was wave B and now we are in wave C.
View attachment 965360
2/ If we draw fib retracement going from 278 to 153, we can see a clear flip from support to resistance at the 0.786 level (250) before going lower. We are approaching the buy zone now (230-215) but the top of wave 1 at 218 will offer one hell of a support first.

View attachment 965361

3/ Time is running out for a gap fill, which is only mandatory if the current leg down is leg down #1. It is taking too long to be #1. We're almost at the lower boundary of the bullish channel.

Therefore, I'm looking for a bottom around 220 on Tuesday - Wednesday next week.

@dl003 Any update on this given where TSLA is currently and how it’s been trading the past few days?

Will we see $211-$200 or is it time to start considering longs/calls at the $217 area? That everything else is slipping alongside TSLA isn’t helping.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

More #'s to consider:

223.82 150ema
222.24 200ema
221.26 61.8% fib from ATH
219.94 100sma
213.77 anchored vwap from 2/17/2023
208.49 38.2% fib from 4/27/2023
207.81 50% fib from 1/6/2023 bottom
205.67 150sma
201.41 anchored vwap from 1/6/2023 bottom

The real issue is that the macro's still have more to drop till they hit their uptrend support lines. The S&P specifically still has another 5% drop to go till it reaches that uptrend line support.

TSLA's uptrend line support from it's low is around 202/share today. TSLA's 200 day moving average is 197, so close enough to that uptrend line. Just seems like hedgies are fixated on testing those levels of support. And if the S&P does drop another 5%, that overall selling pressure could be too much for the stock and it just drops straight through and then it'll go into freefall just like in Dec.

These are obviously short terms musings/observations obviously, They won't determine much of anything past 6 months from now. But if the uptrend line from the low back in Jan doesn't hold and it freefalls down to stay 125-150/share, it resets the uptrend line and at least for the short to intermediate window, is very bearish for the stock and makes any quick recovery into the 200's a very slow process.

I do think the macro's will hit their uptrend line support and bounce, I'm not bearish on the macro's in the next 6-12 months. I do not think a crash is coming and I think the Sept CPI number comes in good, yet again. It's just a question of for TSLA specifically, can it hang onto the support levels till a positive catalyst comes. I'm very bullish in on Q3 and Highland/Cybertruck being positive catalysts. It's just gonna suck big time if those act as catalyst....from 150/share instead of 220-250/share.

Just wanted to quote these helpful posts from the main thread.

Today, I ended up doing something rather rash, which has worked out so far. Early AM sold BPS-BCS pairs (forming IC) at +p210/-p220/-c225/+c235s for about $3.45. Near close, BTC calls for $0.69, rolled BPS for $0.10 net debit, then sold BCS at $1.55 net credit. I’m not doing the higher math tonight after two glasses of wine, but definitely realized some nice premiums in the process. I decided to day trade this because my free cash (and settled cash) was down to an unknown level, which has caused me problems in the past. I wanted to get the spread moved into next week, so that everything has a day to settle and clear into fully free cash. To do this, and keep away from round trip day trade violations, I only closed the short side, leaving the long side to close tomorrow, probably for $0.01 call, maybe more on the puts. It’s peanuts really, and I certainly left a lot of premium on the table, especially if the SP continues to drop, but decided to widen the IC to reduce risk, just in case we bounce. So here’s the final position: 8/25 IC +p205/-p215/-c230/+c240s, which will be adjusted up/down as needed next week.

Noticed lots of DITM put spreads being closed today (e.g. 15,000x -p260/+p270 at $10.00), so lots of realized profits for the hedgies who put those in play months/years ago. Definitely a bunch of these puts closing out, which may again suggest that the near-term bottom is close. Be careful out there, we’re approaching the SP where the whales fight it out for direction. Don’t be on the wrong side of the fight.

 

[FlamingPIG]

For me personally, I don't count release of Highland and Cybertruck as upcoming catalyst for the stock. Wall street already knows it is coming. The 2 vehicles will drag margin slightly down until volume production which can take a few quarters.
What I think will move the stock is energy. It's having a real near term effect. Mega Packs is selling like hotcakes. It's growing way faster than auto. Q2 was 18% margin, high chance it will beat that these coming quarters.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

According to Wicked Stocks, $213.4/$211.70 is the annual containment level. Never seen that before. Wow. Lots of hints and repetition. We will see if this is this turning point. Waiting……..

 

[SpeedyEddy]

For me personally, I don't count release of Highland and Cybertruck as upcoming catalyst for the stock. Wall street already knows it is coming. The 2 vehicles will drag margin slightly down until volume production which can take a few quarters.
What I think will move the stock is energy. It's having a real near term effect. Mega Packs is selling like hotcakes. It's growing way faster than auto. Q2 was 18% margin, high chance it will beat that these coming quarters.

I would argue that highland will be very much more profitable from the first month of volume production, given the cost-decline of the model 3, which could be September already. (At least we also get a peak into the effect of project juniper, that will be a bit less of a cost-decline, because mY from the ground up is a better designed car (with the front and back castings and structural battery-pack) but juniper will have even more effect on earnings because of scale. Cybertruck not being ramped will take down gross-profit for sure, so the big question is, what the total effect on earnings will be. More important, We see the behemoth growing under the skin that at a certain point wil burst and reveal the beast that this company really is. A few quarters of growingpains (not in the last place combined with general slowing demand for large ticket-items, that, in case of Tesla is a blessing in disguise because the growth of production can just about keep up with the relatively small demand)
Think beyond this period of turmoil and deflation. Who can make a big profit selling EV’s and huge stationary batteries at a big scale? There is only 1 company that we are sure of; it can and will. The rest until now is lagging by miles in as well profit as scale. If an investor comes along and wants to make a short-term, medium-term or long term profit, what are the alternatives in auto or energy? I can see none but maybe any of you can, then show me please.
Ok forgot, this is the options-thread… but keep this in mind as the market is always looking at least half a year ahead.

 

[Jim Holder]

According to Wicked Stocks, $213.4/$211.70 is the annual containment level. Never seen that before. Wow. Lots of hints and repetition. We will see if this is this turning point. Waiting……..

Cary has nailed the top and bottom several times the past year. One of the top chart detectives out there for TSLA.

 

[Max Plaid]

Hard to believe that the -c215's I wrote yesterday were OTM in pre-market!

What move to make next...? Thinking to close out my Sep 2024 -c200's and the Dec 2025 +c200's, there's profits on both of those positions, and with a view to rebuy the LEAPS at a lower price, or even some shares if it were to dump far enough down...

Edit: given that I've acquired 3500 $TSLA over the last month with put assignment, I don't need so many LEAP anyway, still holding 90x Dec 2025 +c140, tbh would buy more $TSLA if it were to drop far enough - my target price is that gap-fill at $143, or whatever it was...

 

[SpeedyEddy]

tbh would buy more $TSLA if it were to drop far enough - my target price is that gap-fill at $143, or whatever it was...

145, would require a hefty fall (on the other hand, with Tesla, crazy things can happen). I hope for a very Phat Green Candle for today, which will make everybody wonder, what is in for next week.

 

[Max Plaid]

145, would require a hefty fall (on the other hand, with Tesla, crazy things can happen). I hope for a very Phat Green Candle for today, which will make everybody wonder, what is in for next week.

I know pre-market isn't always indicative, bit it's looking pretty grim out there today...

 

[UltradoomY]

I am targeting $195 for the end of the drop - 200 Day is sitting at around $196 - lots of stop losses are at $200.

Once that cracks it will drop fast and blow through the 200 and that is where I "believe" we will find support.

That is typically very strong, we only (IMO) went below it last year because of Elon selling.

When we hit it is anyone's guess but I would imagine in the next 2 weeks.

Today - I am looking to sell $215CC's for next week and buy $195P's with the proceeds - I already have a ton of $200's, $205's and $220P's that go out from next week to 09/15.

Macro is going to help with this and Tesla will not be releasing anything new until Q4 starts (IMO) - Not Advice / do you own blah blah

 

[intelligator]

Up, down, sideway, any day, anyones guess. Based on gamma and notion of magnets, comparative to Tuesday and Wednesday, maybe this is it. Also supported by the OI shifts day to day, will we close today above 215? I have a nicely appreciated bought put that I may sell if we don't slip lower. With this downward trend on the cusp of reversal, choosing a strike into next week for selling calls is tough. If we do keep slipping down, I may consider reeling in a November -c235 to next week to hopefully see it expire, even if it's at a small debit. GLTA!

 

[elasalle]

Got enamored, closed 30 March 330 CC's and accompanying 5 500 Dec 25 calls(mini hedge) for like 9K ++ for this week.
Shares in personal are naked now and ready to put on some CC(clothes) as SP comes back up. .. cheers!!

 

[Max Plaid]

BTC 55x Sep 2024 -c200 @$57 -> STO 54x Sep 2024 -c200 @$58 (+$55k realised along the way)

BTC 30x -c230 @5c, STO limit in place for 30x -c220 for next week @$5.1

TSLA doing much better today and it's my suspicion that we're being held around here for today's OPEX and next week will drop further...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

BTC 55x Sep 2024 -c200 @$57 -> STO 54x Sep 2024 -c200 @$58 (+$55k realised along the way)

BTC 30x -c230 @5c, STO limit in place for 30x -c220 for next week @$5.1

TSLA doing much better today and it's my suspicion that we're being held around here for today's OPEX and next week will drop further...

If I remember correctly you had a lot of old -c210 to get rid of, which you were doing one by one over the last few weeks. Is this not the time to get rid of all of them (by rolling or BTC'ing them)? Or did you already?

 

[Max Plaid]

If I remember correctly you had a lot of old -c210 to get rid of, which you were doing one by one over the last few weeks. Is this not the time to get rid of all of them (by rolling or BTC'ing them)? Or did you already?

In May I bought 90x Jan 2025 +c140 and 60x +c200, expecting the SP to trade sideways I immediately sold 150x July -c200 against those, then the SP climbed relentlessly to 300. I closed a few out with premiums from weeklies, but still had lot to roll to September, which incurred a $850k realised loss!! Obviously the portfolio value remained stable, but for annual accounting purposes it was a nightmare...

Have been closing them out, bit by bit, and then decided to roll the remaining to 2024 and deal with any further loss there... at least since earnings I've been buying/rolling them at a lower price than I sold, so have been recuperating the loss

I did consider just buying them out and selling the underlying LEAPS, but as I'm able to knock them off for free with careful swing-trades I think that's the best approach...

Very bad move to write so close to the SP 6 weeks distant... would have sold the LEAPS at $300 otherwise and made a fortune... hey ho, able to reset and go again now

 

[BornToFly]

I rolled my 220 Puts for next Friday to end of September 205 Puts for 0.5 credit.
It sure feels like we are going to go below 200 soon.
This is traumatizing as I still have lots of Jan 2024 BPSs that I will have to pay to roll if we don't finish the year above 200.
The only good news is my -350CC keep losing value....