Fat paws happen. ;-)I’ve been trading weekly calls with strikes about 10% above and closing them out after a few hours or a few days whenever I’ve got a decent profit. Yesterday I tried a monthly at 250, and was very that my thinking was right and could a few hours later close it earning almost $1000. That’s when I realised I hadn’t sold that call but bought it
I suppose that’s how you learn.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Just sayin’ I’m not confident in anything between 220 and 210..
IMHO, there's never enough time left; more is better and safer, so I roll my LEAPS, even if underwater, to the latest expirations constantly so expirations never sneaks up on you. If things look bearish, then perhaps that's the best time to sell your January 2025's and then make a buy order for a dollar or two lower than the going rate of the December 2025's you want to buy to help defray the cost of rolling out for later expirations.
Not advice.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Broken the long-term upward trend-line, that will be a magnet for the next few days. 200 MA(orange curve below) at 196.6 Tesla has always had strong defense on 200 MA before going sour in 2022. So the move today an the former to me all indicates a low for today around 217 already (week earlier than I thought), a rebound tomorrow and then a test of 200 MA around SP $200 for next week as a try to shrug off the last paper hands. closed -C 225 for tomorrow and itching to close -C 217.5 for next week too intermediately ( taking same position tomorrow on one of the tops, I think near close will be the highest, following NVDA, which -C 440 I've closed too.)
SP Being $222-223 TSLA has no support at any level before 217 IMO.
[Edit}Not yet oversold on the daily, where I expect a huge capitulation oversell in the days ahead. Beware, dangerous territory
SP Being $222-223 TSLA has no support at any level before 217 IMO.
[Edit}Not yet oversold on the daily, where I expect a huge capitulation oversell in the days ahead. Beware, dangerous territory
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
referring to argumentation in previous post decided to sell a little bit of C217.5 for tomorrow, which only is an intraday bet on shorters taking advantage today
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I do think it goes lower, near term
Post in thread 'Selling TSLA Options - Be the House'
Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
Where does the 217 come from? I don’t have any reference to that at all… is that some time adjusted Fib ratio?
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Yes, that's what I though... in any case, I'd rather err to the upside that down at this point in time
I've been (mostly) sitting on my hands. I haven't sold any more naked calls this week because the premiums are terrible and I fear a reversal. I did roll my 227CSP for this Friday to 220 strike next week for a small credit.
The big thing I'm trying to decide is what to do with my 350CC for Jan 2024 that I sold when the SP was higher. More than 50% profit now. I would have to do .15 weekly or better to make closing them out worth while. My biggest reason for considering closing them is that I think 350 SP is possible in January and I need to be able to sell new CCs in January to fund my lifestyle for the next year.
On the bright side, I hadn't noticed that cash sitting in Fidelity is earning basically 5% interest with no risk, so I'm less tempted to use that money on risky plays that could result in a loss.
The big thing I'm trying to decide is what to do with my 350CC for Jan 2024 that I sold when the SP was higher. More than 50% profit now. I would have to do .15 weekly or better to make closing them out worth while. My biggest reason for considering closing them is that I think 350 SP is possible in January and I need to be able to sell new CCs in January to fund my lifestyle for the next year.
On the bright side, I hadn't noticed that cash sitting in Fidelity is earning basically 5% interest with no risk, so I'm less tempted to use that money on risky plays that could result in a loss.
FYI - Regarding near term catalysts:
On Twitter is appears that Tesla is about to sell the new Model 3 Highland in China very soon. Once confirmed we could get a pop. Also Elon is supposed to release video of a drive on the new FSD 12 (non-Beta version) in the next week of two.
Both of these potential events, and the recent large drop in SP, has me very cautious about selling calls for low premium right now.
Edit: Also, the "news" has been driving TSLA down by focusing on a few price cuts in China, but sales in China are actually very good with a new record quarter in the making.
On Twitter is appears that Tesla is about to sell the new Model 3 Highland in China very soon. Once confirmed we could get a pop. Also Elon is supposed to release video of a drive on the new FSD 12 (non-Beta version) in the next week of two.
Both of these potential events, and the recent large drop in SP, has me very cautious about selling calls for low premium right now.
Edit: Also, the "news" has been driving TSLA down by focusing on a few price cuts in China, but sales in China are actually very good with a new record quarter in the making.
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Interesting, my read is that we have not yet hit the bottom channel, rather that may happen next week at $210.
$217.6x is February local high, see graph
Edit: @BornToFly you are absolutely correct. FYI, the IV is at historical lows, so not a great time to be selling options. Definitely not calls, especially naked, as we near the bottom of the channel.
Ah, I see you now… I strip out weak outliers especially higher volume selling ones so I guess that’s why it’s not in my model. I still think 210 is a target, but a short term one but $205 is a bigger line in the sand for me. If that breaks and $200 goes then it’s a couple of 8-10% % down legs to a next strong support.
Are you asking the crowd if you should be greedy? As we go lower I’d think about closing the Jan 24 CC, you can always sell a higher strike in coming months at hopefully, higher premium again. I think of call selling as a swing trade. I sell X at 100, then buy it back at 30-40, then wait, sell it again at 100 and buy it back at 30-40 and I’ve now made 120-140, instead of just the 100 - or less.
As for $$ if you’re at Fid, and have enough there take a look at FMPXX, one has to pony up 1MM one time, then whatever is in there less than 1MM pays now 5.3% and rising. Or all their other mm funds are yes paying ~ 5%, so in short term cash holdings its easier than short term bills, or treasury risk - which does exist, take a look at March 2023. And it’s all essentially cash available for real time snipping.
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Ok folks, here’s one of the signal trades that I was waiting for. The reversal is close. Please correct me if I’m wrong. A big whale spread trade, Sept monthly (whales only trade monthlies IMHO):
BTO 2000x [email protected] (0.10 above bid)
STO 2000x [email protected] (0.05 below ask)
STO 2000x [email protected] (at ask)
STO 2000x [email protected] (0.05 below midpoint)
Edit: Thanks @mongo and @tivoboy for your input and expertise. I’m definitely still a newbie on this stuff, so don’t believe my analysis. This is just one indication of a reversal and I will keep watching for others.
Edit2: the 220p/c makes sense to me, but not so much the 275p/c. It’s too far away from the SP. I can’t believe that we hit $275 by mid September (without some BIG news like delivery of 100 CTs). Initially I thought it was a BCS or BPS spread to reduce margin requirements, but now I’m not sure.
BTO 2000x [email protected] (0.10 above bid)
STO 2000x [email protected] (0.05 below ask)
STO 2000x [email protected] (at ask)
STO 2000x [email protected] (0.05 below midpoint)
Edit: Thanks @mongo and @tivoboy for your input and expertise. I’m definitely still a newbie on this stuff, so don’t believe my analysis. This is just one indication of a reversal and I will keep watching for others.
Edit2: the 220p/c makes sense to me, but not so much the 275p/c. It’s too far away from the SP. I can’t believe that we hit $275 by mid September (without some BIG news like delivery of 100 CTs). Initially I thought it was a BCS or BPS spread to reduce margin requirements, but now I’m not sure.
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I know how the bid/ask lines up, but would that make more sense with a BTO on the c275s? Unless just trying to gain more premium $188k against $10M on the put side.
Or is it a 220/275 call spread and two short put positions?
Honestly, when I look at this it makes me think that some big MM (and position holder) is trying desperately to DEFEND the current price we are at at all costs..its not an expensive trade (relative to notional value), but “unusual activity” flags would give it the appearance of “someone who knows something”.. remember, this is the most traded derivative and the null hypothesis is that it is one if not the most manipulated.
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