Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

I saw those on Friday and just assumed that this was a margin-protection scheme. The SP has been dropping, so perhaps somebody needed more protection. I don’t understand that stuff (no margin in IRAs), but buying puts that far OTM and such short time-frame seems a lose-lose proposition. As tivoboy said, we’ve seen these before and they eventually just expire worthless. I can’t believe anything, short of nuclear war or admission of cooking the books, could drop the SP that low that quickly. I could see buying some 9/22 +p225s, but nothing lower. Maybe Monday opens down, big drop, with a large IV spike, but it would need to quick and deep, something like $10-$20 drop, to really affect those +p90s.

Given that I bought some 9/15 +c250s and sold some 9/15 -p240s/+p230s BPS, it wouldn’t surprise me if the ReddyLeaf counter indicator will be predictive this we.

Good points.

The video explained that a move up in IV can net the buyer 100% gains even if stock doesn’t move down much, or something like that. Quite interesting.

Either way, with the glowing Jonas upgrade tonight ($400 PT) we may have the catalyst we need and off we go tomorrow.

The next question becomes when to close bought calls and sell longs before the consolidation and fall back ;- )

 

[EVNow]

Anyone tracking TSLY holdings ?

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I saw those on Friday and just assumed that it was a margin-protection scheme. The SP has been dropping, so perhaps somebody needed more protection. I don’t understand that stuff (no margin in IRAs), but buying puts that far OTM and such short time-frame seems a lose-lose proposition. As tivoboy said, we’ve seen these before and they eventually just expire worthless. I can’t believe anything, short of nuclear war or admission of cooking the books, could drop the SP that low that quickly. I could see buying some 9/22 +p225s, but nothing lower. Maybe Monday opens down, big drop, with a large IV spike, but it would need to quick and deep, something like $10-$20 drop, to really affect those +p90s.

Given that I bought some 9/15 +c250s and sold some 9/15 -p240s/+p230s BPS, it wouldn’t surprise me if the ReddyLeaf counter indicator will be predictive this week.

Edit: Regarding MaxPain out to Jan24, many of those call options were likely bought near the Jan23 low, so MP could be skewed lower. Perhaps not many people buying puts around that time. I don’t really know, just hypothesis.

Margin protection is the most likely explanation. In the past I would buy similar puts and it would keep me out of margin calls. I always wrote them off as expiring worthless

 

[khill]

So that would mean you expect this to top out at 260 and then head down?

@dl003 can you please respond to this?

 

[dl003]

@dl003 can you please respond to this?

I already did, 7 posts down. So much happened on Friday. I provided play by play as well as prediction going forward.

 

[Max Plaid]

Good points.

The video explained that a move up in IV can net the buyer 100% gains even if stock doesn’t move down much, or something like that. Quite interesting.

Either way, with the glowing Jonas upgrade tonight ($400 PT) we may have the catalyst we need and off we go tomorrow.

The next question becomes when to close bought calls and sell longs before the consolidation and fall back ;- )


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Aha, indeed a Jonas upgrade(and downgrade) moves the stock, I was wondering why $TSLA popped +3% on Frankfurt

So all those predicting the stock to start running may be proven correct, although for the wrong reasons, and perhaps a week or two earlier than expected

Might be wise to roll out this weeks -c260's sooner rather than later...

And imagine if the UAW strike as well, could be a perfect storm brewing

 

[dl003]

Aha, indeed a Jonas upgrade(and downgrade) moves the stock, I was wondering why $TSLA popped +3% on Frankfurt

So all those predicting the stock to start running may be proven correct, although for the wrong reasons, and perhaps a week or two earlier than expected

Might be wise to roll out this weeks -c260's sooner rather than later...

And imagine if the UAW strike as well, could be a perfect storm brewing

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If you really believe in manipulation by WS, "coincidence" should be your last resort in explaining why something happens the way it was predicted, not first.

 

[rikkert]

Pre-market up 5.3%, this could become an interesting day

 

[Max Plaid]

If you really believe in manipulation by WS, "coincidence" should be your last resort in explaining why something happens the way it was predicted, not first.

Did I say "coincidence"? Nope... but I doubt we'd be looking at >260 pre-market without this upgrade

Let's face it, an asteroid could hit the planet, the markets would dump and all the bears would claim their prediction of an impending market crash were spot-on

Don't misunderstand me, I think there's value in TA - the HFTs and algos trade based on this sort of thing, so for sure without meaningful news I think there's a strong case for TA, but white/black swan events have no connection

I suppose you'll now argue that if $TSLA wasn't due to go up, then rating a +60% PT upgrade by the most influential auto-analyst would not move the stock?

 

[Jim Holder]

@dl003 Nice TSLA moves overnight, at $262.50 now

When do you plan to sell your 9/15 $260/$262.50 and 9/29 $280/$285 calls?

(Now we have the $249.50 gap to wonder when it fills…).

 

[Max Plaid]

@dl003 Nice TSLA moves overnight, at $262.50 now

When do you plan to sell your 9/15 $260/$262.50 and 9/29 $280/$285 calls?

(Now we have the $249.50 gap to wonder when it fills…).

I do wonder if "they" won't try to hold it down for this week's Triple-witching, we've got big calls at c250, c260 & c265

Maybe Stan Moron bought half of those

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Glad to have turned al long on Friday pffffffew

 

[SpeedyEddy]

but perhaps buying some *sugar* puts is not a terrible idea, as is being ready to get out if the *sugar* hits the fan for TSLA alone or Macro/TSLA.

[Off topic] I think NVDIA is a far better cheap-put-buying play. If you agree, regard their long term bottom line and think Cisco around 2001 as we now know what play was set up to look Datacenterrevenue look good [/on topic]

 

[juanmedina]

Let see if this work out. +5% from $265 is essentially $280. I might sell a few $285's and $290's.

 

[Max Plaid]

Let see if this work out. +5% from $265 is essentially $280. I might sell a few $285's and $290's.


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Let's see if Triple Witching OPEX is a match for a Stan Moron +60% PT and upgrade... going to bed interesting, that's for sure

I'm thinking to roll up my 30x -p245's to -p260's this week to counter the 30x -c260's I have there, the -c270's, wait and see of the SP gets close

What I am more keen to sort out from here are my 54x Sep 2024 -c200's, if I can get rid of those it unleashes a lot of selling power and uncaps the LEAPS, so will start to close these out

A lot will depend how hedged the MM's are, if they need to cover then we could see a Gamma squeeze and the hedgers will Gert steamrollered...

 

[dl003]

Did I say "coincidence"? Nope... but I doubt we'd be looking at >260 pre-market without this upgrade

Let's face it, an asteroid could hit the planet, the markets would dump and all the bears would claim their prediction of an impending market crash were spot-on

Don't misunderstand me, I think there's value in TA - the HFTs and algos trade based on this sort of thing, so for sure without meaningful news I think there's a strong case for TA, but white/black swan events have no connection

I suppose you'll now argue that if $TSLA wasn't due to go up, then rating a +60% PT upgrade by the most influential auto-analyst would not move the stock?

What Im saying is:

a. WS needs a short squeeze to allow them to unload shares at a high price before P&D

b. Weak hands were shaken and taken to the cleaner by Jonas' friends last week, probably the same people who bought and paid for this upgrade.

 

[Max Plaid]

What Im saying is:

a. WS needs a short squeeze to allow them to unload shares at a high price before P&D

b. Weak hands were shaken and taken to the cleaner by Jonas' friends last week, probably the same people who bought and paid for this upgrade.

In this we are in agreement, although I'm not convinced P&D will be a pullback, deliveries look robust... and this is a BIG upgrade from the "most respected" auto analyst on Wall Street, others will follow, as they always do, might be hard to put the genie back into the bottle...

 

[elasalle]

nice action ...
sold Sept 22 300 calls for .68 against Jun 24 300 ... cheers!!

+Just remembered we have Fed and CPI ... so reversed and closed Calls and CC's for 8K gains over the weekend thx AJ

Some money to the bank... rest waiting for a pull back .... markets will get jittery before CPI ...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Between yesterday and today, I'm now holding a mix of:

• 9/29 +280c/-290c bull call spreads (avg. price: $1.11)
• 9/29 +280c (avg. price: $1.77)

Will look to sell sometime next week, hopefully.

Closed out the bull call spreads at a decent profit, holding onto the 9/29 +$280s for now. Also added 10x 9/15 -290s at $0.74 at the open this morning.

 

[juanmedina]

I sold $285's at 0.98.