Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[ZenMan]

What do you mean?

I think he means that the short TSLA was and still is such a crowded trade that even after the poor P&D the stock still went up to 269.

We may touch 225 but don't expect 200. I have +240 Puts. I'm cashing out at 12 if I can get that tomorrow.

When everyone thinks the stock will go one direction, it usually does the opposite. Since nearly everyone thought the ER was disastrous, the stock will probably go up. So watch the near or ATM short calls.

 

[Jim Holder]

I think he means that the short TSLA was and still is such a crowded trade that even after the poor P&D the stock still went up to 269.

We may touch 225 but don't expect 200. I have +240 Puts. I'm cashing out at 12 if I can get that tomorrow.

When everyone thinks the stock will go one direction, it usually does the opposite. Since nearly everyone thought the ER was disastrous, the stock will probably go up. So watch the near or ATM short calls.

Thanks.

So I guess the question is do we sell into any upside (it’s a dead cat) or ride it up? Asked differently, are we in for a deep winter on TSLA and escape when we can to ride it out or we’ve basically seen the bottom?

 

[FlamingPIG]

Technically, TSLA has satisfied the minimum requirement, breaking the previous 234 low. I'm not expecting much more downside from here.

A bet is a bet. If we don't see 200 in 2023, I guess this is my farewell.

I don't remember anyone taken on the bet. U bet yourself? For sugar sake, stop trying finding excuse to not post useful info that I really like on here. You are starting to piss me off, where else will I find another dl003???? Geeezzzz!!!! Stop being selfish and continue to make me money.

 

[dl003]

Thanks.

So I guess the question is do we sell into any upside (it’s a dead cat) or ride it up? Asked differently, are we in for a deep winter on TSLA and escape when we can to ride it out or we’ve basically seen the bottom?

My opinion is we are in a correction, not a bear market. And just like in any correction, it will eventually resolve to the upside.

 

[Jim Holder]

My opinion is we are in a correction, not a bear market. And just like in any correction, it will eventually resolve to the upside.

Thanks. Can you pls share with u how you’re playing the correction and what shape/cadence you think it’ll take?

 

[dl003]

Thanks. Can you pls share with u how you’re playing the correction and what shape/cadence you think it’ll take?

I'm closing my bearish bets tomorrow and looking for bottom to start selling puts again.

 

[vikings123]

To all the folks saying this was a disastrous call: You must be new here lol.

We knew going in that margins are going to be bad, we knew going in that Tesla already cut prices for Q4. With interest rates rising every week I don't know what else Tesla can do.

Personally I don't think the call was that bad. Elon being Elon does not make it a disastrous call. Clearly he sounded tired and exhausted but that doomsday tone has been replayed in every quarterly call for the past year or so. So again I must ask the question: You must be new here?

In any case watch the option flow at opening tomorrow and this will give you clues for action rest of the week. Whatever you do don't make any moves right at opening unless you are closing some of your put positions for a gain etc.

 

[vikings123]

I'm closing my bearish bets tomorrow and looking for bottom to start selling puts again.

Same, I sold most of my positions in my IRAs and went to half CSPs/half cash. I'm happy to take possession of new shares and ready to deploy the cash tomorrow. I'm in no rush though, will watch the action to see how it goes in the first hour.

 

[EVNow]

Not seen these many bearish takes by buy side analysts in a while. Have to see how this plays out - esp. what analyst notes we get tomorrow and whether we get any downgrades. That can drive the market in the next few sessions.

Last quarter we went from nearly 300 to 210 - 30% down. I think this is a worse quarter in terms of ER. How much was it already accepted... who knows.

 

[EVMeister]

@dl003

I don't even trade options but follow this thread because I find your posts in particular very interesting and insightful. I'd go as far as to say you're the main if not only reason I actually visit this thread. I don't think there's anything to gain from you leaving the forum for the sake of a bet you made for yourself yet there's so much to lose.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Tesla is currently in a weaken state. A fall in Macro may now caused a snowball effect in Tesla SP.

We will have to see how it react today.

… touched 224…

 

[Max Plaid]

To be fair, the options market was predicting +/- 4.7% swing after earnings -> what wasn't mentioned was that we'd drop 5% in main market first

Looks like I'll be break-even on this week's straddles, most I could have realised at any moment throughout the week in any case was around 20%, high IV keeping the premiums up, today they'll collapse, but the short puts will need bailing-out

Need to see premiums at open, maybe rolling -p250 down to -p230 for this week will bring some $$$, in any case can't leave the -p250's open until tomorrow, very strong risk of early assignment I would say

 

[juanmedina]

I'm closing my bearish bets tomorrow and looking for bottom to start selling puts again.

Are you still feeling the same at $226 at premarket? After the Q2 ER we top out at $300, where do you think will top out after yesterday earning?

I close all of my LEAPs thanks to you. Thank you.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Im going to cash out 1/2 my puts in 1st 30 minutes of opening and let the rest ride out. Take profit while maxing gain as I can. After today tomorrow may bring a rebound if Macro permitting.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Just decided to roll 230CC for Friday to 235CC 11/24 for 4.5.
So 5 dollar strike improvement and 4.5 premium.
A bit less than monthly goal, but the combination of both pulled the trigger.

Reasoning behind this:

If the stock goes down after earnings, I shouldn’t have done this obv.
But it might be better than expected and I don’t think we only went down last days/weeks because of macro only.
When we do rise again, my possibilities with this contract are way less attractive.
Now I rolled and when we rise, there’s strike improvement as well.
Should we go down further, can also lower the strike for more premium.

Well eh... .

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

A few days ago, at 250, I rolled my 8 short puts 240 10/20 out to 230 11/17 for a nice premium. May roll them down and out more in the coming weeks if that's opportune. Even considering having them assigned if they get too far ITM, because selling calls on the shares will be more profitable than rolling far ITM puts.

At the same time I rolled the 10 short calls 292.5 10/20 out to 295 11/17, netting more premium. I'll probably let those expire.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

To the people that are holding + puts, how long are you planning on holding them? I got mid November $200 puts, at what SP will you close the puts? For people still holding shares are you going to sell ATM or ITM covered and get super defensive?

@Jim Holder did you sell your shares before the ER call? I am curious.

still got all of them and set sale prices as follows:
TSLA NASDAQ.NMS Oct20'23 200 PUT. $2.68
TSLA NASDAQ.NMS Oct20'23 210 PUT. 50% @ $2.80 and the other half $5.00
TSLA NASDAQ.NMS Nov10'23 215 PUT. $15.00
Making good 50% of today's loss on shares.

 

[Singuy]

This so called disastrous ER is now going head to head vs the 150 EMA, somehow one of the most relevant s/r for TSLA.

When I saw 269, I knew I would lose the bet.View attachment 983374

Damm I feel like this is even a more bolder call than Tesla hitting 200. I thought you were going to win by Friday but I guess the chart is telling you the ER call was not disastrous enough. Props to you for putting you money where your prediction is being as bold as they are.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Still think we need superoversoldness, which would be around @212, but seeing where the puts are, not likely this week (or only a super V-shape today?). Next week there is a far less massive putwall (and the funny 90 dollar put guy is back again (Jim Chanos?))

 

[intelligator]

still got all of them and set sale prices as follows:
TSLA NASDAQ.NMS Oct20'23 200 PUT. $2.68
TSLA NASDAQ.NMS Oct20'23 210 PUT. 50% @ $2.80 and the other half $5.00
TSLA NASDAQ.NMS Nov10'23 215 PUT. $15.00
Making good 50% of today's loss on shares.

Wow, $2.68 would need SP to be 215 or so. My broker (Fidelity) doesn't allow that set, it's too far away from last trade. Set mine at projected price for SP at 222 ... happy to trade that just the same.