No, it wasn’t specifically aimed at you. No need for more dramatic decisions.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
No, it wasn’t specifically aimed at you. No need for more dramatic decisions.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Got it Fred. New Dog still trying to learn. You are right - been loaded with coffee every morning. Crazy week. Will cut back. Nobody gotta leave. All good people here making this one of the most unique board I've been there. Thank you all for letting me be part of this.
Have a good weekend and god bless!
Have a good weekend and god bless!
2019 was pretty grim as well. Did anyone see 260 -> 960 in 5 months? How about 540 to 1240 in 5 months in 2021? Was there ever a time when things don't seem super duper grim with Tesla? Yet, upsides tend to find a way to surface and surprise us all.
Let's go back to the beginning of this correction, from 298. Here we have 3 downward moves in red, each one scary in its own rights. However, pay attention to the difference between the first one and the last 2. The last 2, with the 2nd still remaining to be seen, (a) have 5 identifiable waves, (b) has gaps in the 3rd wave, (c) have little overlapping between the waves, and (d) the slope of the decline is steepest in the middle of the decline. These are all traits of a 5 waver. The existence of the first 5 waver gave me the confidence to predict the 2nd one. They're part of a sub-sequence.
However, the "big bad" first leg down from 298 to 212 doesn't have these traits. It reeks of a 3 waver, not 5. A move that starts with a 3 waver is always corrective in nature, going against the trend. No matter how hard it falls, it will end at some point, making a HIGHER LOW.
This big sub-sequence that started at 279 can have either 3 or 5 waves which will dictate how steep this fall is going to be. We can either be in wave C ( close to be over) or wave 3 (a ways to go), but make no mistakes: at the end of it, TSLA will go on its way to break 300 in a big way, possibly even 400. This can happen in 2024. I have a feeling we're in wave C, not 3.
When things all seem hopeless and morale nowhere to be found, maybe I'll make another bet.
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Great post @dl003. I hope you, @SpeedyEddy and everyone else keep posting here.
To all, as a moderator one of my tasks is to keep threads on topic. For this thread, about selling TSLA options, that’s not easy. First general discussion about Tesla started seeping in, threatening to turn this into a second ‘main investment thread’. Then technical analysis reared its head and it has never left, probably to the delight of many. Then came trading other stocks. And recently something that feels like TSLA daytrading.
Over the last few years I’ve tried at times to keep the tangents at bay, without too much success. If a policy does not have broad support it won’t succeed. I sense that also this time my intervention has not been greeted with much enthusiasm.
As a moderator I’m not here for myself, I’m here for all board members. No one needs a wannabe dictator telling them what to do. We are all Tesla/TSLA enthusiasts, grown men (and maybe a few women) who in real life would probably get along very well and have a beer together (me a protein shake, but I’m sure @Max Plaid would not let my beer go to waste). So if many of you think this thread should become (remain?) a general TSLA trading thread, covering every aspect of the stock, then I am not going to be the one telling you otherwise.
Please let me know what you think. I’m also very interested in hearing the opinion of @adiggs, founding father of this thread.
To all, as a moderator one of my tasks is to keep threads on topic. For this thread, about selling TSLA options, that’s not easy. First general discussion about Tesla started seeping in, threatening to turn this into a second ‘main investment thread’. Then technical analysis reared its head and it has never left, probably to the delight of many. Then came trading other stocks. And recently something that feels like TSLA daytrading.
Over the last few years I’ve tried at times to keep the tangents at bay, without too much success. If a policy does not have broad support it won’t succeed. I sense that also this time my intervention has not been greeted with much enthusiasm.
As a moderator I’m not here for myself, I’m here for all board members. No one needs a wannabe dictator telling them what to do. We are all Tesla/TSLA enthusiasts, grown men (and maybe a few women) who in real life would probably get along very well and have a beer together (me a protein shake, but I’m sure @Max Plaid would not let my beer go to waste). So if many of you think this thread should become (remain?) a general TSLA trading thread, covering every aspect of the stock, then I am not going to be the one telling you otherwise.
Please let me know what you think. I’m also very interested in hearing the opinion of @adiggs, founding father of this thread.
I think this thread officially became @dl003SreetBets
Love the TA predictions with the options trading mix.
I personally have evolved from plain wheeling to swing trading, buying and selling options at pivot points.
So this thread is perfect in that it’s evolved with me…or have I evolved with the thread???
the power you guys wield
So this thread is perfect in that it’s evolved with me…or have I evolved with the thread???
the power you guys wieldI think the thread is evolving. The more information we have, the greater the urge to take action based on that information. Im not saying hey lets turn it into a day trading chat room but I think all good info can be beneficial in shaping up our expectation of whats coming next. If you are executing a trade well, good for you and Id like to know why you did what you did. I want to learn from you if it will make me more money. I just think we owe it to each other to maximize the signal:noise ratio.I personally have evolved from plain wheeling to swing trading, buying and selling options at pivot points.
So this thread is perfect in that it’s evolved with me…or have I evolved with the thread???
First few hundred pages: knowledge
Last few hundred pages: application
Middle few hundred: wisdom
?
Good judgment comes from experience, experience comes from bad judgment - somebody
Learn from other's mistakes, you won't live long enough to make them all yourself - somebody else
Last few hundred pages: application
Middle few hundred: wisdom
?
Good judgment comes from experience, experience comes from bad judgment - somebody
Learn from other's mistakes, you won't live long enough to make them all yourself - somebody else
@dI003, I have been reading your posts in the main Investors thread For many years and now within this Options thread for the last 4-6 months and I very much appreciate your insights and knowledge. your post #32,783 was very Informative as I am still in the early stages of understanding options. From the 3rd Q P&D, which we all knew would be lower based on tesla telling us about plant upgrades and shutdowns, I dId dip my feet into options and right before P&D, and bought many Put 240’s and 230’s with 10/27, 11/3 and 11/17 expirations. Reading many of the posts after earnings, I sold all of my positions on the 19th between open and around 2:30. Of course, now I wish I would have held some till yesterday afternoon, but a win is a win. I guess a few thought the stock would rebound after the drop, and that did not really happen, but, again, this is all good experience.
As for your post #32,783, it looks like the chart is stating that there would be a run to around 225 by Tuesday/Wednesday, and then Back down with a huge dip by next Friday. Would this be correct (not that it will actually happen as nothing is 100% in this market), or am I not understanding the chart properly.
Thanks again for sharing as I know, if people listened to you and then made appropriate choices, They (you) have made them lots of money. Clearly, we are all responsible for our own actions and the risks of options, but what you provide is much more to our community. Thanks!
I don't know for certainty that it will hit 225 early next week. I don't know if 210 was the bottom of wave 3. What I know is the stock will have to give signals at some point that the steep decline is over and now we're foolishly trying to rally back up or at least consolidate, then comes the final wave of selling. If 210 was the bottom of wave 3, then 225 is the first target for said rebound but it can go much more shallow than that so I'm paying more attention to the structure than to the price at this point.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Since everyone knew - the expectations were lower as well. But the ER was worse than lowered expectations and the doomsday call didn't help.
Neither of the above was "known".
I'm only writing this to say - you truly don't know what is going to happen going into an ER. Yes, sometimes your guess is right ... but at others may be not.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
The normal me would usually hold contract and keep it as it fall or pump maybe days or weeks. Learn a hard lesson along the ways things will never continue to fall or rise as expected. Greed goto into me and I was one of those YOLO guys from the Wallstreetbet. Not that bad but not that good to start with.
Learn alot from my times here. My endeavor was never toward selling or be the house. More on buying and closing contract. A more little dog kind of position. Someday I do aspired to be like the folk on here but got a long way. The path has been hard but going with the right folks has been more rewarding no matter the results, winning preferably though
I start with a clean slate on Monday. Antipating a DCB before making any move to be on the safe side. No matter the paths I believed our goal intertwine within the SP and the playing out of the options.
Learn alot from my times here. My endeavor was never toward selling or be the house. More on buying and closing contract. A more little dog kind of position. Someday I do aspired to be like the folk on here but got a long way. The path has been hard but going with the right folks has been more rewarding no matter the results, winning preferably though
I start with a clean slate on Monday. Antipating a DCB before making any move to be on the safe side. No matter the paths I believed our goal intertwine within the SP and the playing out of the options.
Sure, good point, but I felt better than 85% confident after I saw the 435k deliveries, and many price decreases, along with the better efficiencies within manufacturing and even the bump of Energy would not make up for a short with margins, and clearly, I was fortunate to be correct. I felt it was more than a “Guess”. Having been long since 2013, I liked my odds considering all of the messaging from Tesla.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I know what you are saying. I felt the same way before Q3 '18. Bet a LOT and made millions. Did the same for Q4 '18. The ER was ok - but the call focused on Q1 issues and the SP tanked. Lost millions.
It's easy to get carried away.
Only thing for sure is we don't know. Everything is a guess. There are large hedge funds and companies that employ independent researchers to find out non-public information and they still get it wrong !
Thank you for sharing, it is very much appreciated.
If the final wave of selling comes to pass, how low do you guess the floor will be, and in case it doesn’t come have you sold puts yet?
I’m asking since I want to be prepared to swap my -Ps for -Cs and liquidate longs and +Cs to cash if we have a lot more to fall.
Let me know if some of my posts are part of the dilution/pollution and if I should curtail posting the QTA levels and weekly options summary each day. I’m just trying to give back to the community here after having learned and gained so much from all of you daily.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Once all the bad Macro are over Im planning to ride with Tesla all the way back up to 400 and beyond. Let think positive. Perhaps this is the dip that we all been waiting for as a 2nd or 3rd chance to invest in a company that changing the world for the better.
The first loose target if 209 is lost is 192. I have high hope that we would touch this lvl and bounce, closing the week over 209 but be on the defensive. 2022 was an anomaly but also a stark warning to us that there is really no limit to how aggressive the final wave can be.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
thanks DI0003. So on Monday we should look for a rebound to 225 (which may be lower) then a final sell off toward 209 or below. If breaking that then 192. Then if that base then look for a rebound to 209 by end of the week.
Again thanks. This will help with the stragedy for the week. Will share how we do as the week get moving. Another wild one for sure.
Again thanks. This will help with the stragedy for the week. Will share how we do as the week get moving. Another wild one for sure.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I'm all for the original intent of the thread i.e. sell options to make money taking small amount of risk. But I'm absolutely fine with daily trading tips etc.
What would be interesting is everyone here posts their guess for next weekly close. We can see whether this crowd sourced information is more accurate (or less inaccurate !) than individual guesses.
This will also help all of us measure our guesses against actuals on a weekly basis - and perhaps be sobering
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