Again, if you followed my calls, you would have bought 206 last week and held off selling CCs until today. Who care what US10Y does?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
sure we do, in fact I made a posting about that when we did the 284 pullback upward, I supposed targeting 340, then pullback to 300 and then new ATH (from bottom 101.50 to neckline 299.29 and a bit is 198-ish , so 299+198 would result in long-time horizon of 497, before running into really unknown following episodes.) But for now, we still first have to break the 299 strongly to call it an upside down head and shoulders.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
-C247.5 11/17 for $1.02 (and ready to roll if necessary)
Considering the 10 year rate determines borrowing rates for Tesla and any decrease in rates price in demand with a very high correlation and a strong beta, I care.
Plus you told me to sell CC when sp was 252 as the local top a month ago because we are suppose to be under 200 (or bearish at least) until 2024 so I did. Of course 252 was not the top and we are not staying under 200 but hey its all guess work so whatever.
I sold 11/17 $235's for $5. Things at work are not great.
While some of you were wandering around, listening to all kinds of data and pondering all the possibilities, these 2 posts alone would have kept you safe and maybe even profitable.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
hawk-eye-ing higher low to hold on the on the 1-minute chart to close my -p 180's for December in time, if necessary to close at all.. for 205 should indeed be the bottom
SebastienBonny
Member
Just rolled 235 CC for next week to 12/29 240 CC for about 6.
Monthly strategy keeps paying off in this case.
For those interested:
5/30: Sold 220 CC 06/09 for 2.01
Cash position: +201
6/07: Rolled 220 CC 06/09 to 225 CC 06/16 for +0.24
Cash position: +225
6/12: Rolled 225 CC 06/16 to 225 CC 06/30 for +4.49
Cash position: +674
6/21: Rolled 225 CC 06/30 to 225 CC 07/28 for +5.94
Cash position: +1 268
07/28: Rolled 225 CC 07/28 to 225 CC 09/15 for +4.94
Cash position: +1 762
08/21: Rolled 225 CC 09/15 to 230 CC 10/20 for +5.89
Cash position: +2 351
10/18: Rolled 230 CC 10/20 to 235 CC 11/24 for +4.54
Cash position: +2 805
11/14: Rolled 235 CC 11/24 to 240 CC 12/29 for 5.84
Cash position: +3 389
Monthly strategy keeps paying off in this case.
For those interested:
5/30: Sold 220 CC 06/09 for 2.01
Cash position: +201
6/07: Rolled 220 CC 06/09 to 225 CC 06/16 for +0.24
Cash position: +225
6/12: Rolled 225 CC 06/16 to 225 CC 06/30 for +4.49
Cash position: +674
6/21: Rolled 225 CC 06/30 to 225 CC 07/28 for +5.94
Cash position: +1 268
07/28: Rolled 225 CC 07/28 to 225 CC 09/15 for +4.94
Cash position: +1 762
08/21: Rolled 225 CC 09/15 to 230 CC 10/20 for +5.89
Cash position: +2 351
10/18: Rolled 230 CC 10/20 to 235 CC 11/24 for +4.54
Cash position: +2 805
11/14: Rolled 235 CC 11/24 to 240 CC 12/29 for 5.84
Cash position: +3 389
Are you expecting TSLA not to be at 240 by 12/29 when it's around there now?
Just curious about your thesis so I can learn.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
My little doggy brain just finished module 1 of the Option Trainings. Wow - I thought I know enough but I was playing it wrong all the times. Unless you're a TA expert don't be a bull headed player and buy longs without conviction or supports from the experts. Those not taking the course yet or need a refresher it's on page 1. Thanks to Adiggs for posting this years ago.
Below is what I believed are great points from the trainings:
1. Go small - Bet 1 to 2% of your equities at a time so you dont lose it all on 1 bet
2. Focus on selling not buying Option - tons of stragedy can be leverage. SP go up go down or go sideway you still win.
3. Use IV and High Probability as leverage as you sell
4. Do it often. Develop a schedule - ex twice a week and kepts at that.
5. Minimized risk - no naked call - no margin - cap your call with credit spread to defined the potential lost, or better yet, have stocks on hand or money to buy them at a price you are willing to pay
Another things not mentioned on the training but what I found highly valuable. Focus on trading what index or stock you know or have clear conviction on. Don't wandered into unknown territory. Got burn doing AAPL and SPY. Going to focus on just Tesla for now etc.....and selling.
One heartfelt words of advice - if you're buying Longs you're a gambler in a casino. Be the Casino and sell short (option) that the ways to go.....
If you're loosing tons of money or has lost tons of money - STOP, take some times off, do the trainings on page 1, then come back. The Casino is always open and money are always there....... unless you want to look like dumb dog me
Below is what I believed are great points from the trainings:
1. Go small - Bet 1 to 2% of your equities at a time so you dont lose it all on 1 bet
2. Focus on selling not buying Option - tons of stragedy can be leverage. SP go up go down or go sideway you still win.
3. Use IV and High Probability as leverage as you sell
4. Do it often. Develop a schedule - ex twice a week and kepts at that.
5. Minimized risk - no naked call - no margin - cap your call with credit spread to defined the potential lost, or better yet, have stocks on hand or money to buy them at a price you are willing to pay
Another things not mentioned on the training but what I found highly valuable. Focus on trading what index or stock you know or have clear conviction on. Don't wandered into unknown territory. Got burn doing AAPL and SPY. Going to focus on just Tesla for now etc.....and selling.
One heartfelt words of advice - if you're buying Longs you're a gambler in a casino. Be the Casino and sell short (option) that the ways to go.....
If you're loosing tons of money or has lost tons of money - STOP, take some times off, do the trainings on page 1, then come back. The Casino is always open and money are always there....... unless you want to look like dumb dog me
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The advice to sell at 252 on the expectation that we would see sub-200 before the end of the year is considered a good call in my book, given that we went down to 194 within a month after that prediction.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Tesla will never need to borrow money, but in DCF valuation (discounted cash flow) higher intrest will depreciate future growth (so tech in general, that usually is heavily valued on future growth, like Tesla.)
You literally said we were not going down to 200 when SP because SP broke out of 252 and this call was made after the poor ER call. I even replied how that call was more mind blowing than your under 200 call. I was on board and you said 240 was going to be the bounce after all said and done, and even in this reply you mean 240 in 2024.
So I mean you didn't get the exact numbers or maybe the time frame but the zig zag is close enough.
This has nothing to do Tesla borrowing money and everything to do with customers borrowing money for a Tesla. If 10years dump, real rates dump at 2x beta almost. We go from 8% borrowing cost to 6% in a flash and this drives up Tesla demand and prevents Musk from lowering prices. Besides DCF, the market also price this in.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Even if you sold 252 and bought 225, you would still have made money. I'm sorry if I would have made you money instead of a crap ton of money. My bad.
I meant what I said. @juanmedina asked what I thought the SP would be at the end of this year. I said 240. Is it not approaching the end of the year right now? You said I said the SP would stay under 200. I NEVER SAID THAT and the screenshot was to prove that.
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