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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Another question I have: is today's action (market-wide) pricing in a cold CPI print tomorrow, or not? Took advantage of the rally this morning to get out of my 11/17 +240cs at a moderate loss.
Markets look mixed, although most EV stocks appear to be up, but whether TSLA is up because of that or the others are yup because of TSLA, who knows?

As for CPI, Truflation has real inflation a bit higher since the summer, but whether this is indicative to the CPI numbers I wouldn't know

Don't forget there's pile of FEDiots "speaking" this week as well, which is likely to cause engender some fomentation

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I increased contracts to close out -c200 and -c212.50 for Friday and open 60x -c220.

Pretty comfortable being slightly ITM where I’m in good shape if we’re flat to down rest of week. If I get run over, I’m happy to roll week to week for small credit and have them as a hedge.
 
😆

11/24 -C240 good for a roll destination or -C235 good enough? (CT event a few days after…)
At least for me its an easy call - if I'm rolling, then its a position I'm trying to rescue, and that means I want the biggest strike improvement I can get while still collecting a credit. Mentally I'm either going to earn all of the strike improvement eventually, or I'll just be taking a week or two off from earning income. Either is a good outcome.

What I'm NOT doing is trying to roll while accomplishing both outcomes - continue earning weekly income AND rescuing the position. But that's me.
 
Closed my -190p expiring this Friday when shares were ~224, closing price .11. 90% gain for a 1 or 2 trading day position, and now that cash is ready to open new puts on a pull back. Soonest I'd open a new put position is tomorrow.

Opened -240c expiring next Friday (11/24) at 1.80. Pretty nice up day and I can get a decent credit for a strike that I'm confident I can roll up to 250 and then sell should this get run over. I'm not looking to sell these shares - only that I'm comfortable with my worst case escape hatch should it be needed.
 
Can this be contributing today?


The $7.7 billion Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF sells call options on the Nasdaq 100 to increase returns from the performance of shares in the index. Thanks to the technology benchmark’s almost 10% rally since late October, the ETF’s short position expiring Friday is now well below the index’s current level, meaning the fund will need to buy thousands of futures contracts to cover.

The fund, which follows a covered call or buy-write strategy, according to its prospectus, sells a succession of one-month call options each calendar month on the reference index covers such options by holding the underlying. The holdings are known to the market, offering an opportunity for traders to buy ahead of the ETF.

“The market has gotten the joke and pre-traded or front-run the delta”, wrote Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott in a note to clients on Friday as he calculates that the transaction will create about $8 billion in Nasdaq futures to be bought as the hedge comes off.
 
Can this be contributing today?


The $7.7 billion Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF sells call options on the Nasdaq 100 to increase returns from the performance of shares in the index. Thanks to the technology benchmark’s almost 10% rally since late October, the ETF’s short position expiring Friday is now well below the index’s current level, meaning the fund will need to buy thousands of futures contracts to cover.

The fund, which follows a covered call or buy-write strategy, according to its prospectus, sells a succession of one-month call options each calendar month on the reference index covers such options by holding the underlying. The holdings are known to the market, offering an opportunity for traders to buy ahead of the ETF.

“The market has gotten the joke and pre-traded or front-run the delta”, wrote Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott in a note to clients on Friday as he calculates that the transaction will create about $8 billion in Nasdaq futures to be bought as the hedge comes off.
Magic 8 ball says, possible but not probable. If they were in a massive short covering position, many of the bigger tech companies would be participating more I think. They DID have quite a run LAST week, so maybe they got those cleared out first.

I think the bigger thing overall is that more ppl are participating simply using the QQQ or SPY, vs some or many of the underlying. That hasn’t produced much if ANY alpha in quite a while, months, but I think ppl - certainly retail is getting lazy and complacent.
 
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Can this be contributing today?


The $7.7 billion Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF sells call options on the Nasdaq 100 to increase returns from the performance of shares in the index. Thanks to the technology benchmark’s almost 10% rally since late October, the ETF’s short position expiring Friday is now well below the index’s current level, meaning the fund will need to buy thousands of futures contracts to cover.

The fund, which follows a covered call or buy-write strategy, according to its prospectus, sells a succession of one-month call options each calendar month on the reference index covers such options by holding the underlying. The holdings are known to the market, offering an opportunity for traders to buy ahead of the ETF.

“The market has gotten the joke and pre-traded or front-run the delta”, wrote Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott in a note to clients on Friday as he calculates that the transaction will create about $8 billion in Nasdaq futures to be bought as the hedge comes off.
Worth noting is that the scale is different, but this is what happened to the Oil futures fund (SCO?) a year or two back when barrels of oil were momentarily -$38 (yes - people were receiving $38/bbl of oil in order to take delivery of bbls of oil). Everybody in the market knew that SCO needed to where and when SCO would roll their front month contract out for 1 month and started front running that roll hard.

The other part of SCOs problem is that they were obligated to close the contracts for the front month - they did not have the ability to take physical delivery of the oil plus the contracts they were traded only settled in physical delivery. This is a critical difference between American and European style options - the European options settle in currency rather than the physical underlying stuff.


It didn't help that so many people had piled into SCO that it was 1/3rd of the market. Actually that was the cause of course. 1/3rd of the market, trading in a known and programmatic fashion caused a distortion that the rest of the market abused badly.
 
For me this has been kind of flying under the radar - any guesses what impact on the stock market in general, and TSLA in particular, from the US government shutting down (at least partially) on Friday (or Saturday) when the current funding runs out?

Any bets on whether the House will actually get something passed?


My point isn't the politics of the House, or the shutdown - my point is that there is a much more than remote possibility of a significant economic disruption starting late this week, and that's worth some attention for us trading at the scale of days or weeks.

I know I've suddenly put this together (I've been more focused on the politics, and hadn't really tracked just how close to the deadline we've gotten), and I'm happier being short calls right now than puts.
 
I know I've suddenly put this together (I've been more focused on the politics, and hadn't really tracked just how close to the deadline we've gotten), and I'm happier being short calls right now than puts.
You’re now caught up to post 33,177 ;-)
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Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

I try to give everyone at least a 14 day window into the future. ;-0