Traded inside sell zone instead of falling out + sell orders thinned out 2nd half of day = bullish for now
Daily:
Daily:
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Trades today were all profitable, only shrinked my -C265 closure profit a very minor bit. like Friday H&S on minute chart was a full blown faky, but the move up was slow and significant enough to go back in bullish again. Closed all bearish positions, watching the 10 min chart over the last 3 days which has a very solid upward trend, not 1 lower bottom, corresponding with Ma4X which is still not broken. So now we enter the Grinch (3 days before and 3 after Christmas), that normally is very profitable for stock. I expect an intermediate top to be reached soon. Still think higher than 265 and brought my money there, selling puts, buying calls. Will reveal position tomorrow.
Excellent TSLA analysis by Cary just dropped that harmonizes and matches a lot of the sentiment here, suggested watch (9 minutes):
Basically if TSLA can close above $260-$265 we have a shot at $278 in a couple weeks. BUT we are at meaningful resistances so tread carefully.
Basically if TSLA can close above $260-$265 we have a shot at $278 in a couple weeks. BUT we are at meaningful resistances so tread carefully.
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Today sold some BCS on the morning rise,
30x 12/22 c277.50/297.50 for $.24
then tried a Yoona Double Dip and sold more for next week:
30x 12/29 c295/315 for $.26
then a few more a bit later in the day
50x 12/22 c275/290 for $.25
They seem pretty safe or at least easy to roll up a bit if needed.
Total profit would be $2750.
Mostly staying away from BPS for now. I feel like TSLA can drop much faster on bad news than jump up on good.
30x 12/22 c277.50/297.50 for $.24
then tried a Yoona Double Dip and sold more for next week:
30x 12/29 c295/315 for $.26
then a few more a bit later in the day
50x 12/22 c275/290 for $.25
They seem pretty safe or at least easy to roll up a bit if needed.
Total profit would be $2750.
Mostly staying away from BPS for now. I feel like TSLA can drop much faster on bad news than jump up on good.
ya, that's how i would do it; 275 is exactly my safe IC prediction for this week (92% win rate over 703 weeks)
but it's only 6.9% OTM from today's Close, so
another useless data tidbit
comparing options prices for the next 7 weeks from yesterday AH to today AH:
comparing options prices for the next 7 weeks from yesterday AH to today AH:
2024-02-16 260 call prems increased the most (16.70 yesterday to 19 today = 2.30 gain)
2023-12-22 255 put prems decreased the most (6.05 yesterday to 2.87 today = -3.18 drop); this strike decayed the most
What formula do you use to calculate this range?ya, that's how i would do it; 275 is exactly my safe IC prediction for this week (92% win rate over 703 weeks)
but it's only 6.9% OTM from today's Close, so
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combo of options formulas then a small skew/buffer on top
i wrote a Trading View script for it, but beta for now
I would love to get >$15. So I'm going to continue weekly for now, hoping for a raise to 270+ by end of the year. Then the question becomes to sell before or after P&D.....
This is where scaling in can really be effective. For example STO a portion at $260-265, then if we get and hold past there add at $270, another higher, another before P&D, etc. so at least you have skin in the game but you’re not all in. In case P&D is a dud (most in the know—if there is such a thing—are expecting flat to soft) you can put on the rest where SP is after the reveal and if it’s a beat somehow you have some left to sell at the next higher point.
Just food for thought, NFA.
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thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Last time I checked these have delta of less then .15 maybe .10.ya, that's how i would do it; 275 is exactly my safe IC prediction for this week (92% win rate over 703 weeks)
but it's only 6.9% OTM from today's Close, so
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Great update from Wicked. He also detailed a scenario if we don't hold 262 downside to 230 within the 2-3 weeks and maybe 180 within 3-6 months.
The above 260-265 must be by Friday closing if recalled as we can moved past and still fall before Friday he warned.
Stomach acid quotient and sleep quality is directly correlated with Delta:
Delta >.20 = Stomach acid + poor sleep
Delta <.20 = Stomach happy + good sleep
Thanks. I am happy to be in this channel to follow you.as a learner i appreciate your contributions.i am learning about iron condor and has not done at all. may be next year if i feel i am competent. practically you can do monday one IC, then tuesday another IC and may do up to thursday. are all the IC considered as one trade or four separate trades ? If the monday one gone wrong can you roll that only and leave six as it is. Do you close any of them in advance ?
Time to reread my EWT intro book. That's good stuff, and I'm following along with most of the terminology. Much more reading.
12/22 2DTE 68% Probability of Market Maker Move = 249.03-265.41 based on last night's options premiums @ 49.87% IV. Tighter guess = 252.98-261.46. Max Pain = 250.
12th week of squeeze, possible explosive move coming (up or down
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12th week of squeeze, possible explosive move coming (up or down
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