Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[csmith1521]

TSLA Rolling - does it work? Part 3

Compared to puts, calls take longer to OTM if rolled

if my 7DTE short call is breached, (for ex 2023-06-09 i have a 10% OTM bet -c235.36 but it closed at 244.39):

• if i roll with no strike improvement (assuming no early assignment), i can close it in 10 weeks; this means rolling to the same strike 10 times
• if i roll with 5-strike improvement every week, it will go OTM in 3 weeks (week 1 -c240.36, week 2 -c245.36, week 3 -c250.36); this means rolling 3 times and going up total 15
• if i roll with 10-strike improvement every week, it will go OTM in 1 week (week 1 -p245.36); this means rolling 1 time and going up total 10

if one is selling 10% or 12% OTM calls, any breached call will take at most 6 rolls before it goes OTM (5-strike improvement every week, total $30 improvement) ie move -c200 into -c205 into -c210 into -c215 into -c220 into -c225 into -c230

if one is selling 15% OTM calls, any breached call will take at most 2 rolls before it goes OTM (10-strike improvement every week, total $20 improvement) ie move -c200 into -c210 into -c220

if one is selling 8% OTM calls, there is a 15.82% chance that it will go ITM.

summary:

• rolled puts go OTM faster than rolled calls, especially if there is a 5- or 10- strike improvement every week
• assuming no early assignment, there is no "max loss" when rolling puts - 100% will eventually go OTM (since 2021)
• assuming no early assignment, "max loss" is possible when rolling calls
• "max loss" means you can roll up to today or for a long time, and it will still be ITM (might as well take the loss)
• translation: i should be more afraid of rolling calls than puts

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Long time lurker, first time poster. I just got myself out of a very bad trade that took ~3months to recover from. These posts are gold. Thank you!

What's your trigger to roll your calls/puts? I have guidelines that I follow for entering trades, but am having a difficult time coming up with guidelines for when to roll.

Thanks!

 

[Yoona]

1/26 options market guessing 195-232.50ish

today's million-dollar trades

today's 1/26 trades, size >= 1000

very bad morning, probably OpEx-related, but we survived

this is the 13th consecutive week we're below 10% OTM 7DTE

max pain looking ahead

 

[Yoona]

Long time lurker, first time poster. I just got myself out of a very bad trade that took ~3months to recover from. These posts are gold. Thank you!

What's your trigger to roll your calls/puts? I have guidelines that I follow for entering trades, but am having a difficult time coming up with guidelines for when to roll.

Thanks!

i used to be a chicken, rolling at the first touch

nowadays i wait for 0dte, especially if there are strong TA lines

 

[Max Plaid]

Thats the thing with stats ... there's always a first time.

ps : Funny story. There were people in 2008 claiming McCain was sure to win, inspite of large polling deficits, because no African American had ever won a presidential election

pps : Bought back 230 calls and 200 & 205 puts for a cent. Next week I'll probably sit out or sell 15/20% OTM options.

Jesse, can you imagine how amazing having McCain as a POTUD contender would be... that's a guy who could bridge the divide

 

[AWDtsla]

Was caught again by surprise by the 6/26 options becoming available. Perhaps I'm reading this calendar wrong? Options Expiration Calendar When did these options actually come out? Last time I see a "Equity LEAPS® added" was last September.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Was caught again by surprise by the 6/26 options becoming available. Perhaps I'm reading this calendar wrong? Options Expiration Calendar When did these options actually come out? Last time I see a "Equity LEAPS® added" was last September.

Was about a week and a half ago. I already wrote some CC's on those LEAPS

 

[Max Plaid]

And I finally got my 1/26 -C 232.50 for a decent 1,30 a few hours ago, before leaving for some blues tunes, 3x Leffe blond and an Aventinus Eisbock (really nice tasting) ago!

Leffe's for tourists, but I treated myself to a Chimay Triple, St Hubertus Citra and Duval Triple Hop...

 

[AWDtsla]

Was about a week and a half ago. I already wrote some CC's on those LEAPS

I guess there's literally no way to know except to check the market every morning?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I guess there's literally no way to know except to check the market every morning?

Yup lol.

I asked a couple times over the past month here about when they would start trading and tried looking up online but couldn't find anything. So I literally checked every single day

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Was caught again by surprise by the 6/26 options becoming available. Perhaps I'm reading this calendar wrong? Options Expiration Calendar When did these options actually come out? Last time I see a "Equity LEAPS® added" was last September.

They opened up a few weeks ago I think. Sept/Oct is when the first batch of '27 options open with a Jan expiration. Every few months new options are opened up, but it isn't very clear to me the timeline of when that happens

 

[Musskiah]

Several sites had it at $210 around 3pm when I looked. Stockninja still has it at $210. It appears it's being calculated at $220 by most sites now. Thank you for pointing it out, I will stand corrected. Most sites calculate Max Pain in $10 increments when there is such high open interest in contracts. I'm not sure why this is and remain open to understand it better, but I have Groked it. So depending on the averages, it will round up or down. As we seem to be fluctuating between $210 and $220, it would stand to reason the reality is more near $215. The general thesis stands that we stay well below the 200 DMA until end of Jan.

Max Pain ended up at $210. Jan 26 went from $240 last week to currently $222.50

 

[Yoona]

SPY has a massive 0dte put differential expiring tomorrow, this MAY help TSLA be green (market dealers are incentivized to prop up the market)

https://x.com/lastadam/status/1654495503709532163?s=20

special T.Y.V.M. to spy today for all the help

 

[csmith1521]

special T.Y.V.M. to spy today for all the help

Those P:C ratios are heavily skewed for next week as well

 

[juanmedina]

 

[EVNow]

Jesse, can you imagine how amazing having McCain as a POTUD contender would be... that's a guy who could bridge the divide

Disagree - but lets not get into politics here. I was just making a point about stats.

 

[DaBooster]

At open my 100x 230/260 1-26 BCS executed for 3.00
closed all for 1.85

Notes to self,
a) have more patience!
b) Learn to lay out !

 

[Cherry Wine]

 

[Max Plaid]

They opened up a few weeks ago I think. Sept/Oct is when the first batch of '27 options open with a Jan expiration. Every few months new options are opened up, but it isn't very clear to me the timeline of when that happens

Yeah, it's weird - GOOGL, MSFT & NVDA already have Dec 2026 available for a few weeks, QQQ and SPY too, but they don't have June 2026

For TSLA the Nov & Dec 2024's opened up as well

 

[elasalle]

Yeah, it's weird - GOOGL, MSFT & NVDA already have Dec 2026 available for a few weeks, QQQ and SPY too, but they don't have June 2026

For TSLA the Nov & Dec 2024's opened up as well

Option Cycle: Definition, How It Works, Examples

Option cycle refers to the expiration dates that apply to the different classes of options.

www.investopedia.com

Option Cycle Assignments​

Options are assigned to one of three cycles at their listing. Originally cycles were divided by four months. In 1984 regulatory authorities decided that a listed option should have the two front months available for its investors. This changed the listing of options to include the first two front months followed by the next two months in the cycle.


There are three option cycles that a listed option can be assigned to on the public markets:

1. JAJO - January, April, July, and October
2. FMAN - February, May, August, and November
3. MJSD - March, June, September, and December

 

[thenewguy1979]

My play for the Put side to form a complete straddle.

If ER is bad - the pain should be swift. 20x upside. Cheap play. Going out more OTM is cheaper but reduce the % of hitting the number by Feb 2.

Note - if SP trade sideway straddle will be busted. But combined 500 investment for 20-30x upside is peanuts. Not many ER come along as hot or with much anticipation as this one is.