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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Mar 24, 185 or 190 puts starting to look tasty ~ 8$ a pop for a -P position entry
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
When you thought it can't get any lower....
So many negative news out there. Whether they based on fact or overblown I won't speak to them.
Got to admit that mid 170 is looking more real then ever.
So many negative news out there. Whether they based on fact or overblown I won't speak to them.
Got to admit that mid 170 is looking more real then ever.
a would like to buy them when IV is low and maybe when the stock starts trending up.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
One other factor that I'm sure Wall St is going to play up is that unless Tesla somehow really blows out earnings, TSLA's TTM P/E is about to go much higher. In fact it will go higher even if the stock drops materially from these levels since current EPS estimates are 25% lower than what Q4 2022's EPS was.
The flipside is that once we get Q4 2022's earning out of the window, IF Tesla can actually stabilize or rebound margins, TTM P/E could actually be a catalyst and offer support for the stock since the bar will be set low for all of 2024's vs 2023's comps.
Of course that's IF Tesla stops with the price cuts and rebounds margins even a little
But the setup makes the decision before Wed's earnings even tougher. I feel very confident we're gonna bottom and start sustained rally at some point before Q1 ends.
The flipside is that once we get Q4 2022's earning out of the window, IF Tesla can actually stabilize or rebound margins, TTM P/E could actually be a catalyst and offer support for the stock since the bar will be set low for all of 2024's vs 2023's comps.
Of course that's IF Tesla stops with the price cuts and rebounds margins even a little
But the setup makes the decision before Wed's earnings even tougher. I feel very confident we're gonna bottom and start sustained rally at some point before Q1 ends.
Yeah, and I’d like to get PAID to buy then. ;-)
So, still holding for this Friday:
100x -p205 @$3.10
20x -p220 @$14.10
50x -c220 @4.23
100x -c230 @$5.60
Some musings:
Now I was planning to close out the -c230's, just in case there's a surprise to the +ve, but seriously wonder if that's remotely possible from here, would need something spectacular to gain >10% by Friday I feel...
I did put a limit buy for 95c during the dump, but didn't quite make it, idea would have been to resell on some kind of recovery, but now I'm just thinking to let them run, will be 40% lower tomorrow and 70% lower by Wednesday
The -p205's I hope expire, then I'd look to write -c200's - these are underwritten by March +p200's, so very low risk on those, alternative strategy would be to just sell the longs and recuperate quite a bit of cash, that's also tempting, but needs the expiry first, otherwise -c200 roll is the play until the longs expire
The 220 straddles I'm looking to roll and keep rolling, maybe double-up the -c220's to 100x, thinking to add +100x +c300's, June or July... see where were are at the end of the week
100x -p205 @$3.10
20x -p220 @$14.10
50x -c220 @4.23
100x -c230 @$5.60
Some musings:
Now I was planning to close out the -c230's, just in case there's a surprise to the +ve, but seriously wonder if that's remotely possible from here, would need something spectacular to gain >10% by Friday I feel...
I did put a limit buy for 95c during the dump, but didn't quite make it, idea would have been to resell on some kind of recovery, but now I'm just thinking to let them run, will be 40% lower tomorrow and 70% lower by Wednesday
The -p205's I hope expire, then I'd look to write -c200's - these are underwritten by March +p200's, so very low risk on those, alternative strategy would be to just sell the longs and recuperate quite a bit of cash, that's also tempting, but needs the expiry first, otherwise -c200 roll is the play until the longs expire
The 220 straddles I'm looking to roll and keep rolling, maybe double-up the -c220's to 100x, thinking to add +100x +c300's, June or July... see where were are at the end of the week
As bearish as I'm sounding right now, I absolutely could see a scenario where TSLA ends up 10% from today's sp. Stock is very oversold and let's say Tesla plays around with what they do or don't want to recognize this quarter. Let's say Energy has a big revenue bump OoQ with the same margins from last quarter.
Or a true wildcard, let's say Tesla decides to initiate a stock buyback in preparation for Elon's new comp plan in a few months. Tesla buying back stock raises Elon's existing ownership share %.
I'm certainly not betting on these things happening. But would not be surprised by it.
This is a straddle with legs the size and thickness of the Jolly Green Giant!… although leaning slightly to the downside..
me thinks, you MIGHT just be owning some more stock in the near term.. TWT.
Well, we'll see - the -p205's are safe, the -p220's less so, but can be rolled and rolled and... rolled! If they get early assigned, although that's not my plan right now, I wouldn't cry too much either as I'm looking to accumulate, but I was hoping to grow cash reserves +50% first, then flip to share buying
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