Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

Let's see if this holds true:

Max Pain Explained: How It's Calculated, With Examples

Max pain is the price at which the greatest number of options (in dollar value) will expire worthless.

www.investopedia.com

 

[tivoboy]

I think overall, we got TOMORROW’s rally, today. My estimate is that jobs will come in weaker than expected, mkt will drop, then rally back to here or slightly below. Could be lots of false moves, so don’t over-react to the first move.

Not financial advice, blah blah blah.

 

[Max Plaid]

On a whim I decided to close out my semi-conductor plays before close:

BTC 5x NVDA 15/3 -p875 @$9.9 (net +10.3)
BTC 1x SMCI 15/3 -p1000 @$19.9 (net +$63.2)

>50% on the NVDA after one day is always good enough for me, these stocks are stupid hot and with 6 DTE remaining, I decided to take the good profits and then see what gives

And yes, I know, Broadcom reports, and S&P inclusion, rebalancing, etc., so it's a coin-toss

 

[WattsHappening]

Let's see if this holds true:

View attachment 1025615

View attachment 1025614

Max Pain Explained: How It's Calculated, With Examples

Max pain is the price at which the greatest number of options (in dollar value) will expire worthless.

www.investopedia.com

Jim,
We've been around long enough to know that Max Pain only influences TSLA when it's lower than the SP.

/s (mostly)

 

[Jim Holder]

Jim,
We've been around long enough to know that Max Pain only influences TSLA when it's lower than the SP.

/s (mostly)

Lol. Also see how MP kept dropping all week this week. As we said last week, MP move to SP as much as or more than SP to MP. Jury’s still out if it has any gravitational pull.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Let's see if this holds true:

View attachment 1025615

View attachment 1025614

Max Pain Explained: How It's Calculated, With Examples

Max pain is the price at which the greatest number of options (in dollar value) will expire worthless.

www.investopedia.com

IMO dont think it work, at least not consistently to a points you can always profit from it.

Yoona or someone was working on some historical data calculation.

 

[Jim Holder]

I think overall, we got TOMORROW’s rally, today. My estimate is that jobs will come in weaker than expected, mkt will drop, then rally back to here or slightly below. Could be lots of false moves, so don’t over-react to the first move.

Not financial advice, blah blah blah.

I loved today, got a chance to breath a sigh of relief while selling CCs into the strength and scalping into weakness several times. Made TSLA pay me well for the anxiety this week lol. I plan to do the same until we break out of range.

 

[ChiefRollo]

A little bit up today was enough for me - opened some 200 strike cc for next week @ .54. I don't see this little bit of an uptick lasting.

200 seems more appropriate; I went with $190.

 

[TexasGator]

200 seems more appropriate; I went with $190.

same here - sold 10x C190 for 1.6 each

 

[thenewguy1979]

Seem TSLA just taking a slight breather for the day. Lost 1/2 of the gain AH.

At least we are green and made Jim's happy on his scalping.

Let see what tomorrow bring.

 

[thenewguy1979]

For those wondering if AVGO (Broadcom) can pump the Market tomorrow. Answer not likely.

 

[Singuy]

For those wondering if AVGO (Broadcom) can pump the Market tomorrow. Answer not likely.

View attachment 1025631

Will it pump AI? Most likely looking at AH

 

[tivoboy]

For those wondering if AVGO (Broadcom) can pump the Market tomorrow. Answer not likely.

View attachment 1025631

Just to note, this is exactly where the stock closed YESTERDAY, so it’s not yet throw out the baby time.
I’m pretty certain that there will be upgrades overnight, with the 20-25B contribution from VMW being VERY high margin going forward, so ppl will like that.

As for TSLA world, I had bought RIVN yesterday for LTH, and today reserved an R2. ;-). IF they can really deliver that puppy in 2026 for ~ 45K (not including tax incentives, which sadly could be GONE by then) it would put quite the challenge on whatever model Y is around at that time. TWT

I’ve been watching the Tesla M3 Highland overview with “Hans und Franz” from Tesla, and sadly it smacks of pls come buy our cars.

I’m waiting for analysts - more analysts actually to follow on with more P&D projections for 2024, and a few to come in at below Tsla 2M estimate, so best case being flat. That won’t be good for overall price action IMHO

 

[thenewguy1979]

Just saw the Rivian's R2 and R3 announcement. Competition sure is heating up shortly.

Rivian shares surge as company reveals new EV models, $2.25 billion in cost savings

The announcements come at a crucial time for Rivian as it attempts to expand its customer base amid slower-than-expected EV sales in the U.S.

www.cnbc.com

 

[BornToFly]

NVDA up 15.58% in the last 5 days. In almost 3.5 years, it has gone up more than that only 5 times. Hopefully my -970/+1000 are safe tomorrow.

Yoona's chart:

View attachment 1025616

Well, NVDA up $14 already in AH....

 

[BornToFly]

Rivian has only about 6 quarters of cash burn available, and those horrible numbers are before spending $$$ to bring two new models to market. The very definition of a dumpster fire.

 

[Singuy]

Just to note, this is exactly where the stock closed YESTERDAY, so it’s not yet throw out the baby time.
I’m pretty certain that there will be upgrades overnight, with the 20-25B contribution from VMW being VERY high margin going forward, so ppl will like that.

As for TSLA world, I had bought RIVN yesterday for LTH, and today reserved an R2. ;-). IF they can really deliver that puppy in 2026 for ~ 45K (not including tax incentives, which sadly could be GONE by then) it would put quite the challenge on whatever model Y is around at that time. TWT

I’ve been watching the Tesla M3 Highland overview with “Hans und Franz” from Tesla, and sadly it smacks of pls come buy our cars.

I’m waiting for analysts - more analysts actually to follow on with more P&D projections for 2024, and a few to come in at below Tsla 2M estimate, so best case being flat. That won’t be good for overall price action IMHO

Nothing in my projection tells me Rivn will be alive in 2026.

 

[tivoboy]

Rivian has only about 6 quarters of cash burn available, and those horrible numbers are before spending $$$ to bring two new models to market. The very definition of a dumpster fire.
View attachment 1025651

I think that changed a bit by not spending 2.5B on a new plant in GA.. I’m guessing, they got some new additional incentives from IL to stay and build out the new lines there vs. moving.

And they are not burning 6B a year. With ~ 9B in CASH on the balance sheet, while they MAY do some capital raising, they aren’t at 1.5 years of cash at the moment. They’re burning net about 2B-3B a year at the moment.

I’ll stop now, wrong thread.

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[MP3Mike]

As for TSLA world, I had bought RIVN yesterday for LTH, and today reserved an R2. ;-). IF they can really deliver that puppy in 2026 for ~ 45K (not including tax incentives, which sadly could be GONE by then) it would put quite the challenge on whatever model Y is around at that time. TWT

The $45k Rivian R2 is the small pack RWD 270 mile range variant, I highly doubt they will be delivering it anytime in 2026. They will likely be starting with the large pack variants of the AWD and Performance, and then RWD. And then yet later start with the small pack variants. (Just like the R1s just recently started shipping with the small pack.)