Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Singuy]

A good rule of thumb is if Elon promotes a post on X, it’s probably misinformation.

His post are usually scrutinized via community notes due to the number of impressions it gets. He does get community noted but not that often.

 

[Yoona]

@Yoona posted a flow table, it shows about 50% bearish trades for the 8th, most are well below the upcoming 950 call wall. Were we all wrong? Get a good night sleep, we'll deal with it in the morning.

What are you trying to tell me Master?

NVDA 0dte +/-5% OTM last 52 weeks = ~973 with 1σ ~993

gamma/vanna/OI walls 950 with 1050 on the horizon

if that -c970 was 100 wide, there is 0.90 credit to 7dte -c1060/+c1160 based on Close; the earlier the roll, the higher the credit

1060 because i like hiding behind OI walls (ie 1050)

NVDA/SMCI isn't TSLA, these are $1000 stocks and need a wide width: the long leg will decay faster, spread will reach 50% profit earlier, rolls to higher legs are usually credits, and less chance of max loss due to higher breakeven point

from my experience using the same capital, wide width and less contracts is better than narrow width and more contracts - the profit is smaller but you're in +unrealized gain most of the time (assuming you legged in); the chance of losing capital is lower

 

[juanmedina]

Well, NVDA up $14 already in AH....

Nothing like having a stressful Friday, right?

I opened NVDA 1020/990 BCS for $0.60 today. It is probably going to scare us at open and dump later. Nvidia is at +12.5% for the week and +37% since earnings . At $1000 is essentially a $2.5T company... ridiculous.

 

[intelligator]

NVDA/SMCI isn't TSLA, these are $1000 stocks and need a wide width: the long leg will decay faster, spread will reach 50% profit earlier, rolls to higher legs are usually credits, and less chance of max loss due to higher breakeven point

from my experience using the same capital, wide width and less contracts is better than narrow width and more contracts - the profit is smaller but you're in +unrealized gain most of the time (assuming you legged in); the chance of losing capital is lower

Thanks so much for sharing your experience! Regarding $1k stocks, so true. Well, when TSLA is back in the range, we know how to deal with. This week, I am 100 wide in a SMCI IC short at -p985/-c1330 , lots of wiggle room. To manage funds, I did open less contracts ... no other way. Legging in through the past two days, I've covered most of the NVDA goof ups, this one will need work.

 

[Arul]

did.i.not.just.post.2.charts.

everyone wants to know direction - we all want to be comforted by and be guided by and be handheld by a pointer - but no one here and no one on X and no one on youtube can predict direction, it's just not going to happen coz everyone is just guessing (case in point: predict JOLTs tomorrow and you'll get 100 diff noise)

but we are all very good in predicting range (EW, fib, channels, lines, 1σ, gamma, vanna, OI, youtube gurus) and that's way more than good enough to prepare a plan

bull flag says down 168ish, fib says up 190ish, gamma says 170-180, vanna says 170-185, OI says 175-190, wickedstocks says this, dailytrader says that

of course, we are assuming no black swans (stock split news, stock buyback news, st*pid tweets, EM selling, recall, etc)

in other words, instead of non-stop panicking, prepare 2 plans: what to do if stock goes 168? what to do if stock goes 190? then execute it

if we don't have a plan, we are trading according to the latest "news"... AJ? garyblack? reuters? - everyone has an agenda

Yoona , I have a funny siuation . i have 5000 shares in my IRA account, now i cannt do any CC because of the law pemiums and if i sell at low target price , they may get assighned. In my taxa ble account i have 1500 ahres with unit cost of $76.00. Here my problem is CC gives less premiums. If the target price is low shares may get assigned and will create huge capital gains. Thus i do only a few CC. How can i handle the situation. Thanks.last year i averaged about $20,000.this year very bad and february is a loss too.

 

[Yoona]

Yoona , I have a funny siuation . i have 5000 shares in my IRA account, now i cannt do any CC because of the law pemiums and if i sell at low target price , they may get assighned. In my taxa ble account i have 1500 ahres with unit cost of $76.00. Here my problem is CC gives less premiums. If the target price is low shares may get assigned and will create huge capital gains. Thus i do only a few CC. How can i handle the situation. Thanks.last year i averaged about $20,000.this year very bad and february is a loss too.

this begs the question - why take the risk at all for the sake of tiny income? (unless you need income for expenses)

selling CC at extremely low IV is a very bad idea

granted, your cost basis is low and you don't really lose anything (except unrealized future potential,) but if you can't afford paying the huge capital gains, why even bother?

all you need is a black swan (you'll never see it coming) - stock buyback, stock split, Buffet buying - and you'll have deep regrets for the sake of picking up pennies

options trading is extremely addictive, we feel like we should always do something, click on something, sell something

but sometimes, doing nothing is more profitable

don't believe me? ask me how many times i closed too early and left money at the table

every. single. time.

Not Advice!

 

[Arul]

this begs the question - why take the risk at all for the sake of tiny income? (unless you need income for expenses)

selling CC at extremely low IV is a very bad idea

granted, your cost basis is low and you don't really lose anything (except unrealized future potential,) but if you can't afford paying the huge capital gains, why even bother?

all you need is a black swan (you'll never see it coming) - stock buyback, stock split, Buffet buying - and you'll have deep regrets for the sake of picking up pennies

options trading is extremely addictive, we feel like we should always do something, click on something, sell something

but sometimes, doing nothing is more profitable

don't believe me? ask me how many times i closed too early and left money at the table

every. single. time.

Not Advice!

Thanks for the great advice, and opened my eyes. I should not be greedy. just relax and enjoy the life till thins improve. This is why i followed you from X to this channel. This one is highly informativeand i am learning daily. This is not the time for CC. Thanks yoona and i appreciate it.

 

[vikings123]

The big question is what do I do after the open tomorrow?
Do I close the -970/+1000 for a big loss? Do I hope and pray NVDA doesn't go up $100 in two days? Do I flip roll half of them to +890/-920P ? That seems risky as hell too. This is nuts. MaxPain is 830.

I mean you still have cushion so don't panic. Let's see where it opens tomorrow. I don't know how many you sold and at what premium so not sure what that loss looks like. I think NVDA will correct when it has a huge gap up so may be we are getting close. Don't guess, we will know based on the action during regular market hours. If I were you I'd probably roll them out to next week. Don't try to get cute by flipping them to BPS.

 

[Yoona]

I mean you still have cushion so don't panic. Let's see where it opens tomorrow. I don't know how many you sold and at what premium so not sure what that loss looks like. I think NVDA will correct when it has a huge gap up so may be we are getting close. Don't guess, we will know based on the action during regular market hours. If I were you I'd probably roll them out to next week. Don't try to get cute by flipping them to BPS.

agree! NVDA is overdue for correction, nothing goes up forever, roll, and don't flip (in case of reversal)

 

[Discoducky]

Sorry for those in a bind on NVDA, rolling is your friend.

For TSLA, I'd think the lower production for earnings will be bearish. I'll be continuing to open more weekly CCs at MP to offset/hedge the downside. I have no plays open for next week so far. Quad/triple witching week.

For me, tomorrow should be interesting for these 20x CCs expiring at $175 and $180. Maxpain doesn't seem enough gravity to pull the SP to $185, but we'll see! These have been as much as 65% profit, currently at like 30%. Will be holding until they hit 70% or go underwater and then give them the ol heave ho to next week!

 

[BornToFly]

I mean you still have cushion so don't panic. Let's see where it opens tomorrow. I don't know how many you sold and at what premium so not sure what that loss looks like. I think NVDA will correct when it has a huge gap up so may be we are getting close. Don't guess, we will know based on the action during regular market hours. If I were you I'd probably roll them out to next week. Don't try to get cute by flipping them to BPS.

I only intended to open 100X. But I did it last Thursday, so far OTM at the time, that premium was only 0.25 for -920/+950. By Monday I had to roll the -920/+950 up to -970/+1000, which meant increasing to 300X to pay for the roll. Not good. I did make some premium on the BPS side, and again when I rolled them up. Total about $12,000.

 

[ChiefRollo]

this begs the question - why take the risk at all for the sake of tiny income? (unless you need income for expenses)

selling CC at extremely low IV is a very bad idea

granted, your cost basis is low and you don't really lose anything (except unrealized future potential,) but if you can't afford paying the huge capital gains, why even bother?

all you need is a black swan (you'll never see it coming) - stock buyback, stock split, Buffet buying - and you'll have deep regrets for the sake of picking up pennies

options trading is extremely addictive, we feel like we should always do something, click on something, sell something

but sometimes, doing nothing is more profitable

don't believe me? ask me how many times i closed too early and left money at the table

every. single. time.

Not Advice!

I appreciate you, Yoona.

 

[BornToFly]

I only intended to open 100X. But I did it last Thursday, so far OTM at the time, that premium was only 0.25 for -920/+950. By Monday I had to roll the -920/+950 up to -970/+1000, which meant increasing to 300X to pay for the roll. Not good. I did make some premium on the BPS side, and again when I rolled them up. Total about $12,000.

My best bet for rolls to next week might be to reduce the number 1/3 and going 90 wide. Hopefully with some income from BPS I can go safe enough both sides.

 

[Knightshade]

Sorry but what they showed was nothing more than a cash grab for a very obvious cash raise through a offering in the 2nd half of this year.

There's zero reason to announce/show a vehicle that is roughly 28 months away.

Remind me how far away cybertruck production ended up being after announcement? Semi? Roadster 2.0?

 

[Jim Holder]

Let the fun begin:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765967134033629673

 

[thenewguy1979]

My best bet for rolls to next week might be to reduce the number 1/3 and going 90 wide. Hopefully with some income from BPS I can go safe enough both sides.

We got CPI next week and FOMC the week after. The tide can turn. Just hang on. You got this.

As many stated nothing goes up forever and NVDA and its cohort SMCI are overdue for a correction.

Dog got burned this week for being greedy. But he still happily eating dry kibbles for now.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Let the fun begin:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765967134033629673

That a decreased of 25% from the 40k China local sales in January.

Let see premarket reaction…

 

[Max Plaid]

That a decreased of 25% from the 40k China local sales in January.

Let see premarket reaction…

Of course, GF3 was shutdown early February for CNY, but I'm sure that won't be clearly stated in the news articles...

Despite the small relief yesterday, I'm happy to have rolled those weekly 43x -p200 puts up and out to 20x -p190, less exposure, lower strike and loads of extrinsic -> the downside is that they have a very low Delta, so will not decrease in value much as the SP rises, conversely, they won't go up in price as fast either, so there's that

Thought of a play on these, should we get any kind of recovery, sell 20x -c190's at the same strike, then buy back the puts, then when the SP drops again, reverse it, resell the puts and buy the calls, seems an interesting idea and would be fun to play with, can also be used to reduce the contracts gradually, or the premiums used to build-up a long put position at a later expiry

 

[mongo]

That a decreased of 25% from the 40k China local sales in January.

Let see premarket reaction…

Wholesale for Jan-Feb was down 6% from 2023 to 2024, this was already known. Export vs retail is at Tesla's discretion and will be impacted by both the New Year's shutdown and longer sea lane shipping times.

 

[BornToFly]

Regarding NVDA, at 950+ I feel like there is a psychological pull to 1,000. I wouldn't be selling now if I had shares even though it has gone straight up already this week. I hope I'm wrong and we don't even hit it today.