Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

TSLA continues to get punished and is now the worst performer in the S&P 500 this year, yes, even worse than Boeing:

Credit: BarChart

 

[Knightshade]

A close below 164.20 tomorrow could have us looking for 89.10 according to Cary

Honestly at that point I have to seriously consider selling all shares and buying the longest dated LEAPs I can, prob at 2:1 or 3:1 depending on what the premiums/strikes look like

 

[SpeedyEddy]

-1 post from a few minutes earlier deleted, bit of a faulty observation sorry guys-

 

[DaBooster]

Honestly at that point I have to seriously consider selling all shares and buying the longest dated LEAPs I can, prob at 2:1 or 3:1 depending on what the premiums/strikes look like

I am planning on buying LEAPS, June 2026 250strike,
at 150 SP cost $25
assuming a SP double to 300 before expiration the LEAPS value would be $120
so a 3.8x v SP 1x

I am missing something besides the obvious & that being if the SP does not recover before Jun 2026

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Honestly at that point I have to seriously consider selling all shares and buying the longest dated LEAPs I can, prob at 2:1 or 3:1 depending on what the premiums/strikes look like

That's what a lot of us have said in hindsight to have been the better "option" on the 102 bottom... So You're right!

 

[Knightshade]

I am planning on buying LEAPS, June 2026 250strike,
at 150 SP cost $25
assuming a SP double to 300 before expiration the LEAPS value would be $120
so a 3.8x v SP 1x

I am missing something besides the obvious & that being if the SP does not recover before Jun 2026

Yeah it's when does the stock recover significantly vs time decay... I'd be happier with Dec 2026 given what timelines look like (next gen getting pushed back even a few months makes 6/26 feel riskier) but Dec 26 not available yet

 

[dl003]

TSLA continues to get punished and is now the worst performer in the S&P 500 this year, yes, even worse than Boeing:

View attachment 1027934
Credit: BarChart

now we just need a few doors flying off moving cars to get a nice bump to where BA is.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

TSLA continues to get punished and is now the worst performer in the S&P 500 this year, yes, even worse than Boeing:

View attachment 1027934
Credit: BarChart

the business doing rather OK (and later this year splendid) things will turn abruptly, but when? I am sidelined again, so:
Got out again. Well, by jumping in and out of stock this way I "missed"at least 50% of the downfall since 250. Alas SMCI-plays were net-negative a bit, so some cash went there, but PLTR compensated that beautifully and now is Number 1 in my portfolio, dollarwise, by far (60%). Number 2 is cash.

 

[elasalle]

I am planning on buying LEAPS, June 2026 250strike,
at 150 SP cost $25
assuming a SP double to 300 before expiration the LEAPS value would be $120
so a 3.8x v SP 1x

I am missing something besides the obvious & that being if the SP does not recover before Jun 2026

Given I already have lot of bleeding calls (and CC's against) ...
I'm thinking I will just buy shares ...
...it feels good to have some $$(all CC monies in personal and another account) in hand ...

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[Jim Holder]

FWIW Max-Pain update:
3/15: 180
3/22: 175
3/28: 177.50
4/5: 180
4/12: 180
4/19: 190
4/26: 170
5/17: 195
6/21: 200
7/19: 205

 

[ChiefRollo]

Honestly at that point I have to seriously consider selling all shares and buying the longest dated LEAPs I can, prob at 2:1 or 3:1 depending on what the premiums/strikes look like

FWIW, at some high level, I see selling all share (bearish) and at the same time buying LEAPs (bullish) as contradictory. You’re selling because you think it would go down further as the trend continues, in which case waiting until you think bottom is close to buy LEAPs would make sense. You’re buying LEAPs because you have a contrarian perspective to current trend, which you don’t as you’re selling all shares.

This is not an attack, just an unsolicited view that I feel we owe one another. I’m in the same boat btw.

 

[bballshinobi]

FWIW, at some high level, I see selling all share (bearish) and at the same time buying LEAPs (bullish) as contradictory. You’re selling because you think it would go down further as the trend continues, in which case waiting until you think bottom is close to buy would make sense. You’re buying LEAPs because you have a contrarian perspective to current trend, which you don’t as you’re selling all shares.

This is not an attack, just an unsolicited view that I feel we owe one another. I’m in the same boat btw.

It's not contradictory. It's to grab more delta with the same amount of capital.

 

[Jim Holder]

Would be great if TSLA can hold the .618 fib @ $158.44:

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Would be great if TSLA can hold the .618 fib @ $158.44:

View attachment 1027954

We're so close to that gap fill I don't see anyway we don't fill it at this point, at least on a intraday level. To me at least, the real question is if that will be in the line in the sand that holds or if we really are about to drop all the way to the 2023 lows.

 

[Knightshade]

FWIW, at some high level, I see selling all share (bearish) and at the same time buying LEAPs (bullish) as contradictory. You’re selling because you think it would go down further as the trend continues, in which case waiting until you think bottom is close to buy LEAPs would make sense. You’re buying LEAPs because you have a contrarian perspective to current trend, which you don’t as you’re selling all shares.

This is not an attack, just an unsolicited view that I feel we owe one another. I’m in the same boat btw.

If you think the bottom is near, and there'll be a large increase in the next year or two, switching from shares to calls is entirely bullish because you gain more than $1 per $1 increase in share price for the same capital at risk. The downside is if your timing is wrong and the SP doesn't recover before theta starts to destroy the calls value.


The one other time I made this move was right when S&P500 inclusion was announced... sold all the shares in my IRA and bought January calls. That was a shorter term thing (months instead of years) but effectively tripled the accounts value at the time and converted back to shares.

 

[ChiefRollo]

I may be wrong but I think the reasoning may be LEAPS lose value slower than shares, and TSLA >$100 in 2026 seems like a pretty good bet.
But there are other implications that one should know about before doing such a conversion.

+LEAPs are great bets I agree; I can’t help but reflect on Adiggs’ perspective earlier this morning. If SP continues lowers, the same LEAP would be at a lower price…to buy; perhaps your point is it will be lower but not at the same rate as that of SP.

 

[mongo]

I am planning on buying LEAPS, June 2026 250strike,
at 150 SP cost $25
assuming a SP double to 300 before expiration the LEAPS value would be $120
so a 3.8x v SP 1x

I am missing something besides the obvious & that being if the SP does not recover before Jun 2026

Where/when are you expecting the calls to be worth $120?

Sell TSLA: get $150
Buy 6 C250
TSLA to 300
At expiration: Calls worth 50 * 6 = 300
TSLA @ 300 is also worth 300
http://opcalc.com/XH2

 

[DaBooster]

I may be wrong but I think the reasoning may be LEAPS lose value slower than shares, and TSLA >$100 in 2026 seems like a pretty good bet.
But there are other implications that one should know about before doing such a conversion.

Jim do you care to discuss the other implications?

 

[ProfessorZoom]

Fair enough; pure lane centering is useless for me with some of the road conditions I drive. What do you place the dollar value of FSD Beta for your commute?

$69 MAYBE $100 a month

I'm on the $200 subscription (didn't get EAP), which comes out to around 30 cents a mile for me (not including non-work trips). Definitely too much, but probably about right for someone who is interested in the beta/journey/updates/tech.

After they wide wide release v12, they need to drop the sub by more than half. That's the only way take rate will moon.