vanna is always a range
gamma far from expiration is a range
gamma closer to expiration becomes probable magnet (tallest is "strongest wifi")
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
gamma far from expiration is a range
gamma closer to expiration becomes probable magnet (tallest is "strongest wifi")
ChiefRollo
Member
ChiefRollo
Member
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
ChiefRollo
Member
It's pretty wild how this multi year consolidation period from 2021 to present (and probably for the rest of 2024/early 2025) is eerily similar to the 2013-2019 consolidation period.
To me at least, the dynamics is exactly the same if you swap the main debate. From 2013-2019, the debate was "Can Tesla grow to mass volume, profitably?" The market wasn't willing to give Tesla any benefit of the doubt it is was crystal clear what was going to happen not a year from then, but in the next 1-2 quarters.
Now it's "Is Tesla just an auto maker, not a tech/software company". It's becoming clear that the market is not going to give Tesla any benefit of the doubt with FSD software revenues/margins. Some of that is due to some understandable reasons - Elon has quite honestly been terrible as a CEO to shareholders both in his actions and the painful way he sold shares, the auto business margins keep dropping, Tesla continually keeps delaying new projects (Shanhai Megapack factory, Semi ramp, etc..) and Tesla has been absolutely terrible about creating their own narrative and laying out the roadmap for how FSD software revenue/margins start to increase and take over the hardware side.
Amazon was able to get a premium valuation for years and years while they had terrible operating margins and hit or miss profitability because they controlled the narrative and made it clear what the goal is. Tesla could learn a few things from how Bezo's operated Amazon during that time when it comes to controlling the narrative.
None of this changes the fact that if you track FSD progress, especially the progress on V12, then it's crystal clear what is coming in the next 1-2 year timeframe. Honestly if it wasn't for FSD, and the progress I've seen over the past year or so, I would have probably sold off a good amount of my position because I simply don't like how Elon doesn't take his role seriously as a CEO of a publicly traded company.
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ChiefRollo
Member
Just watched the video; I’m more confused than ever so I’ll just stick to what you say. Would love to join your 1%.
ChiefRollo
Member
If Tesla had stayed focused on only things that are purely automotive related, not even FSD related endeavors and expenses, its earnings over the years and by now would be better. Narrative would be what? How different would it be? Could it be “yes, Tesla is a really good automotive company and deserves higher than average automotive PE…but without outsized avenues for growth beyond that intrinsic to automotive, it’s not a tech company and does not deserve anything close to tech PE”?
When puts get DITM, I like to split them 1:2 because it brings the strike down a lot. It of course doubles your downside risk. You could open 2x 9/20 -p200 for each call you close. You could also roll at the same time and open 2x 1/26 -p175 for each call.
The easiest thing to do without using up more margin would be just to roll out flat - I hate taking debits on rolls because most of the time it ends up expiring either way. If no tax considerations, you could also just wait for it to be assigned and then sell the shares and re-sell the option at a later exp.
To be clear, I agree with the overall way Tesla is run, the investments they've made. They, by nature of Elon, made long term bets that will pay off eventually across multiple segments. I don't put all the blame on Tesla about this miscalculation when it came to 3/Y having enough organic demand to continue expanding production while keeping ASP as high as it was. They couldn't have known what was going to happen with inflation when they made the decision to push off the compact car.
But again, I think they could very much learn a lot from Amazon and the way Bezo's ran Amazon in regards to Wall St. Bezo's ran Amazon like a start up even when Amazon was in the Top 5 of marketcap in the world. He made no apologies for when Amazon had a loss quarter or when CAPEX rose. Amazon was always clear on their strategy and goal which was we want market share at all costs.
If Tesla had stated all the way back on Q1 2023's earnings - "going forward, our focus is expanding the fleet and marketshare so that when we flip the switch on FSD, we'll be able to drive maximum value/profits. We believe every investor should be focused on FSD progress over this next year. As we reach a point where we believe FSD is ready for mass adoption, we will share more our monetization strategy. " And if Tesla kept that statement consistent all throughout 2023 and now, I think Wall St would be treating TSLA differently than they are right now.
Instead what we get is every earning call, Elon complaining about interest rates, affordability, downer this, downer that
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I don't like rolling for a debit for multiple reasons.
One of them is that I feel like I'm taking my loss and throwing a few extra logs on the fire in an attempt to save it. At least with a credit I'm building up what I've gotten out of the position to offset that loss if/when I finally wrap things up.
One of them is that its easy to lose track of just how much total credit has been accumulated and close early for what I think is neutral or a small gain, when in reality I've taken a loss. Of course if its that bad, then small loss or small gain doesn't really matter to me - I took something disastrously bad and made easily and manageably bad.
Mostly its a point of discipline for me. I've completed some rolls for .02 - at least I had cash flow to pay for the commission!
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
What else can he say - "Don't buy the dip"
Negative Delta (bullish) is back bigly after a small bud appeared yesterday, hopefully it portends good things:
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Rolled 160 puts to 145 and 165 to 157.5. Also sold 180 calls.
I think I'll be happy to take shares at 157.5 (small # to just round up the # of shares I've in IRA) and a large chunk at 145 in my taxable account - I sold these for 185 at the beginning of last year for tax harvesting
I think I'll be happy to take shares at 157.5 (small # to just round up the # of shares I've in IRA) and a large chunk at 145 in my taxable account - I sold these for 185 at the beginning of last year for tax harvesting
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