I think 425 is pretty well priced in. I am guessing it would take 450-460 for significant upside on P&D alone. Investors want to know that despite one-time headwinds that the story is still intact. significantly building inventory would likely be the only real gotcha.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I don't have any risky positions, just hedges to the downside for TSLA and an open long put that I'd like to see appreciate a bit more before I close that and get my cash back.
Meanwhile, last night I did my homework and stuck to the plan. Today I opened a .04 delta SMCI BCS -c1250/+c1350 for $2. The plan said to wait for SP = 1050 , open the position, then watch and sell the BPS side of the IC at +p740/-p840 , if price came down to SP - 970. That didn't happen. In hindsight, my plan didn't mention setting a sell order at 75% which would have been .50 and taken that when SP went down to 1020. I was out on appointment then, so missed the opportunity. Nonetheless, later in the day theta burned off, I eventually set an order but SP was not low enough for the order to fill.
Looking at optionstrat based on market close and pricing, the contract value will be exactly or close to that in the AM. I will act at market open , close out today's position and choose another .04 delta spread for the day (and the closing order for 75% to start) while anxiously awaiting TSLA P&D dust storm. GLTA!
optionstrat.com
Meanwhile, last night I did my homework and stuck to the plan. Today I opened a .04 delta SMCI BCS -c1250/+c1350 for $2. The plan said to wait for SP = 1050 , open the position, then watch and sell the BPS side of the IC at +p740/-p840 , if price came down to SP - 970. That didn't happen. In hindsight, my plan didn't mention setting a sell order at 75% which would have been .50 and taken that when SP went down to 1020. I was out on appointment then, so missed the opportunity. Nonetheless, later in the day theta burned off, I eventually set an order but SP was not low enough for the order to fill.
Looking at optionstrat based on market close and pricing, the contract value will be exactly or close to that in the AM. I will act at market open , close out today's position and choose another .04 delta spread for the day (and the closing order for 75% to start) while anxiously awaiting TSLA P&D dust storm. GLTA!
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Without actually checking, my recollection - bear in mind my Alzheimer brain - is that TSLA tends to bleed between P&D & ER, even when P&D has been decent, because then the margin-worry sets in...Take profit as soon as you can guys. This might be a situation where we get a quick dump then a short squeeze into ER.
If you bet the farm on the wrong direction I guess that can quickly translate to Emergency Room.
Be careful tomorrow. Shout out to @DaBooster for the good and safe play today
We will see! My clear preference is a terrible P&D, dump down to chicken-man's $69 PT, sell my +p150's for crazy profits, buy 10000TSLA, then Elon is all slick and up-beat at the ER, FSD is ready for prime-time, the stock shoots up to ATH and I can retire...
Yes, I know I said I wouldn't buy TSLA, but if it dropped that low it would be a no-brainer
To augment our TSLA trading, it’s helpful to be aware of macro trends as they effect equities.
This fellow is worth a follow. He’s humble, knowledgeable, concise and to the point, no hype or selling anything, and good data. Thanks to @Yoona for brining him to my attention IIRC.
Check it out and subscribe if you like it:
This fellow is worth a follow. He’s humble, knowledgeable, concise and to the point, no hype or selling anything, and good data. Thanks to @Yoona for brining him to my attention IIRC.
Check it out and subscribe if you like it:
ProfessorZoom
Member
I’m happy at least he’s getting near all time lows for his shares, so he can complain to the executive suite to shape things up
ProfessorZoom
Member
interesting, after upgrading to FSD 12.3.3 I got the FSD month trial... but I've had the sub for over a year, sub section on the app says my next billing is May 2 instead of what should have been tomorrow, why give a free month to someone who has a sub for over a year?
Am I an edge case or are they giving up an entire month of FSD sub revenue to everyone that has a sub??
Am I an edge case or are they giving up an entire month of FSD sub revenue to everyone that has a sub??
Because it’s the right thing to do. That’s awesome and surprising. I also subscribe so I’ll have to spend a few bucks at the tesla shop to make up for it.
387K
Troy too high.
mickificki
Member
well now we know why they've been pumping fsd so hard. Will $145 be enough of a support?
bballshinobi
Member
ProfessorZoom
Member
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Production almost 50k more than deliveries and they're largely blaming factory shutdowns
Obviously I got no idea what I'm talking about (semi srs lol) but I would like to think I was onto something here lol. They pumping FSD because the growth story of selling cars is dead this year with no way to bring it back.
Of course this could all be priced in. Let's see how the trading goes today. But I feel like 387k wasn't priced in lol. Nevertheless I'm not confident enough to short it.
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