Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Blue horseshoe]

I think its more, and we don’t know this, but BH has reporting requirements depending on position size or conflicts, that they must report to the SEC, and the agreement that they have reached for whatever reason WITH the SEC is that the SEC doesn’t report this reporting. Frankly, I don’t know how this works since well, that’s sort of why we HAVE the SEC and reporting standards.

BH has done this before and it's because the SEC requires reporting within a certain time period.
13F- funds of $100M in assets and greater must file quarterly reports or holdings
13g- within 10 days file a 13g if ownership of a company exceeds 5%

If BH starts purchasing a company stock near their next 13f filing they may not have enough time to purchase what they want over a period of time and people will, and have, front run them upon discovery.

I'd say BH buying Tesla has a non zero chance of being true, but I highly doubt it will be the case.

 

[dc_h]

Did anyone throw any bucks at this trade yesterday or this week? The +c180 for 4/5/24?

I sold 180 calls near the high and bought them back near the close. Small trade, but aside from licensing FSD to F or GM, I don't see any short term catalyst to bump us up before Q2 P&D. Wish I sold 4/12 CC's yesterday, too easy to think these little pushes are the start of a rally, but I would expect any movement is mostly normal market makers stuff, shorts closing...
I'm still sitting on my 4/5 170 calls and some 4/12 170 calls. If we get close to 170 later today, I plan to sell some 175 or 180 CC's. I don't like to sell this close, but I'm willing to have some higher risk going into earnings. I'm avoiding puts, assuming a short attack could be successful against limited bullish sentiment.

 

[BornToFly]

@Max Plaid
Please let us know what you do with your -165C for today....

 

[BornToFly]

I sold 180 calls near the high and bought them back near the close. Small trade, but aside from licensing FSD to F or GM, I don't see any short term catalyst to bump us up before Q2 P&D. Wish I sold 4/12 CC's yesterday, too easy to think these little pushes are the start of a rally, but I would expect any movement is mostly normal market makers stuff, shorts closing...
I'm still sitting on my 4/5 170 calls and some 4/12 170 calls. If we get close to 170 later today, I plan to sell some 175 or 180 CC's. I don't like to sell this close, but I'm willing to have some higher risk going into earnings. I'm avoiding puts, assuming a short attack could be successful against limited bullish sentiment.

I also have -170CC for next week. Trying to decide how I will manage those.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I also have -170CC for next week. Trying to decide how I will manage those.

And I have -155CC for next week. Looks pretty certain will need to roll out past 4/23, trying to decide on $155-$165 as I still expect an eventual swoon after ER, but lower BB is suggesting won’t go below $160 for very long if at all.

 

[intelligator]

Got out of the SMCI trade, green. Could have done better by waiting a bit more, my new me is to take what I can when in doubt...

TSLA dipping back to the 160's makes me want to sell the Jan '25 +p180. Waiting out the post ER, if there is one, I can maybe snag a few more percent. The consensus seems to be that we may have support in the 160s, makes it tempting to close this 15 month position. Also have 4/26 -p130/+p140 , only 1/3 out of debit , they wont light up until 160 and below.

 

[dl003]

This market is so Bi-Polar. Yesterday the stock was pumping toward 180 because everyone buying. This morning everyone is selling....

It makes perfect sense if you look at the chart. It's a dance. Rome wasn't built in a day.
1st, the 1H RSI reached around 67. intrawave spikes usually stop when the 1H RSI reaches this level as it has become a bit too hot.

Which is why it got rejected big time by the 2H trend resistance. Below is the bearish 2H candle where I said it was a sweet spot to enter shorts.

When rejected, stock retraces a portion of its advance, as buyers digest gain from yesterday. It's a herd mentality. Once the 15M RSI reached oversold and the lower BB was breached, it bounced.

It's a dance, not a sprint. It's only a sprint when there's no more resistance above, which is a long way from here.
Also keep in mind the double edge sword that is a gamma squeeze. When it happens, MMs have to join the herd to buy as gamma shoots up within hours. That creates froth. When it becomes apparent the party was over, MMs unload those shares. The froth disappears and this is what it feels like.
That's why while TSLA is squeezing, one of the worst things you can do is chase after it with BPS. The moment the froth disappears, even if the run up was fundamentally warranted, you can still get caught out naked as froth can disappear overnight, during the same session even.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Only because of likely S&P correction to 4900 (after a little BOUNCEpullback) coming week(s) I will wait just a bit to go all in around hopefully a bit under 160.

That post is not too clear because I used the word pullback. (I sometimes mix them up, although the intent was clear. SPX went down yesterday, so today is the bounce, so rest of the day but surely after this weekend it will resume the road to 4900.)

 

[BornToFly]

It makes perfect sense if you look at the chart. It's a dance. Rome wasn't built in a day.
1st, the 1H RSI reached around 67. intrawave spikes usually stop when the 1H RSI reaches this level as it has becomes a bit too hot.
View attachment 1035807
Which is why it got rejected big time by the 2H trend resistance. Below is the bearish 2H candle where I said it was a sweet spot to enter shorts.
View attachment 1035808
When rejected, stocks retrace a portion of its advance, as buyers digest gain from yesterday. It's a herd mentality. Once the 15M RSI reached oversold and the lower BB was breached, it bounced.
View attachment 1035809
It's a dance, not a sprint. It's only a sprint when there's no more resistance above, which is a long way from here.
Also keep in mind the double edge sword that is a gamma squeeze. When it happens, MMs have to join the herd to buy as gamma shoots up within hours. That creates froth. When it becomes apparent the party was over, MMs unload those shares. The froth disappears and this is what it feels like.
That's why when TSLA is squeezing, one of the worst thing you can do is chase after it with BPS. The moment the froth disappears, even if the run up was fundamentally warranted, you can still get caught out naked as froth can disappear overnight.

I have trading view now. What is the red line called that we bounced down on the 2hr resistance?

 

[tivoboy]

This market is so Bi-Polar. Yesterday the stock was pumping toward 180 because everyone buying. This morning everyone is selling....

I expect the delta change to puts below 170 to drop quite a bit today… this is classic move up the stock to take off SOLD puts, before a bigger drop or failure to support. IMHO.

NFA

 

[dl003]

I have trading view now. What is the red line called that we bounced down on the 2hr resistance?

it's called Supertrend.

 

[Yoona]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776232453893452276

 

[tivoboy]

And I have -155CC for next week. Looks pretty certain will need to roll out past 4/23, trying to decide on $155-$165 as I still expect an eventual swoon after ER, but lower BB is suggesting won’t go below $160 for very long if at all.

If one could get the 155 to 165/167 past 4/23 for not too much debit that’s what the magic 8 ball would do. NFA

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Chances of Charlie buying Tesla in 0%, Warren is like 5%.

The first statement is definitely true. Charlie Munger passed 4 months ago Or is that what you meant?

 

[elasalle]

The first is definitely true. Charlie Munger passed 4 months ago. Or is that what you meant?

You got it or were you thinking this dumb guy doesn't even know Charlie is dead

 

[dc_h]

I also have -170CC for next week. Trying to decide how I will manage those.

My 170's for next week was me rolling July 19 230 calls down to April 12 170. I've had long dated calls forever and trying to clear these out, during what I expect to be bearish span of time. I hope the 144 gap is our bear case, but if we break that, there is probably nothing between us an 100. I expect the 100 would be supported by plans for the Model 2 and the Y refresh and hopefully ramping of Cyber and maybe FSD 12.3.x, really closing the 9s. Meanwhile, my local Tesla lot is very full of cars.
I do have April 19th 185 and 180 CC's as well. Also more aggressive than usual, but again, I don't see any path to breaking out in a way that won't let me roll forward, if needed.

 

[Yoona]

I have trading view now.

cool! this is probably your 2nd-best investment (1st is education)

my most favourite feature is viewing multiple stocks at once, saving me tremendous time; this one is my 15-min view... just one glance (of the 3 stock prices) and i already know how all my trades are doing

 

[Max Plaid]

Chances of Charlie buying Tesla in 0%, Warren is like 5%. Maybe they see a Tesla insurance edge for Gieco who knows ... else BH wants dividends, moats and a business that is easy to understand for them .. not to mention how they look at Elon .. cheers!!

To be fair, the chances of Charlie buying any stock is 0%, unless someone holds a seance...

As for Buffet, I'm pretty sure his traditional valuation models would see Tesla as ridiculously overpriced right now...

Ho hum, unable to trade as I'm collecting my son from the airport, missed out on the low to close my calls, hoping that comes back as the -c165 weekly roll at $167 was paying $3, just $2.2 at $170

Also have some SMCI -p1000's to roll, but they can wait until the death...

 

[Jim Holder]

GEX update

Probably $170 will be the center of gravity for rest of the day.

 

[Jim Holder]

it's called Supertrend.

What settings do you have your set to, is it same as default?