Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Patrick66]

"FSD disabled on bad weather" on very slight drizzles at 6am (semi-dark) and it's not even pouring... persistently nags me to touch the steering

so it's not self-driving material and not robotaxi material in those conditions

Did you get "disabled" or "degraded" with the annoying beeps? I have gotten the latter a few times, and the car just slowed down a little. Same thing, light rain otherwise reasonable conditions. Have not seen the former.

I do not doubt that it is not robotaxi level now-- the number I throw out is "90%", and it is going to need to be 99.999-99.9999% to get to level 5. Each order of magnitude is a similar level of complexity to achieve, so 5 orders of improvement will require several years optimistically.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Did you get "disabled" or "degraded" with the annoying beeps? I have gotten the latter a few times, and the car just slowed down a little. Same thing, light rain otherwise reasonable conditions. Have not seen the former.

I do not doubt that it is not robotaxi level now-- the number I throw out is "90%", and it is going to need to be 99.999-99.9999% to get to level 5. Each order of magnitude is a similar level of complexity to achieve, so 5 orders of improvement will require several years optimistically.

I am not a stressed kind of person.
But when I let FSD drive, I become another person.

The way is slams brakes, phantom brake, miss stops, miss red lights, don’t anticipate people on the side of the road, as soon as there is a pile of snow on the side of the road it stops and doesn’t go around, I am 100% confident is not ready for Northern driving. In Florida, Texas, California, no problem. But the way it hits every ****ing pothole dead center here in Montreal, a FSD car will have its suspension destroyed within 2 weeks.

If 8/8 FSD deployment is the plan to deploy all the unsold Model 3 and Model Y from China, then I hope they deploy them in the states where it doesn’t rain, doesn’t snow and have perfect roads with line like in Arizona because here in Montreal it would be a disaster.

 

[elasalle]

In theory you are correct but in practice you are not. I don't see why Tesla couldn't do the same thing that Waymo is doing today on the same geofenced area. They just don't want to go that route and Tesla's FSD which is a Level 2 by definition from the SAE can certainly be Level 4 if they wanted to.

Waymo drives only in city, gets stuck in construction zones, has issues with unprotected turns etc, but since they don't have driver there are at L4
For robotaxi, where human is not required - it will immediately be L3 and then based on how good it is can me L4 as well. Can FSD do the above better than waymo? Seems like a yes ...

 

[elasalle]

I am not a stressed kind of person.
But when I let FSD drive, I become another person.

The way is slams brakes, phantom brake, miss stops, miss red lights, don’t anticipate people on the side of the road, as soon as there is a pile of snow on the side of the road it stops and doesn’t go around, I am 100% confident is not ready for Northern driving. In Florida, Texas, California, no problem. But the way it hits every ****ing pothole dead center here in Montreal, a FSD car will have its suspension destroyed within 2 weeks.

If 8/8 FSD deployment is the plan to deploy all the unsold Model 3 and Model Y from China, then I hope they deploy them in the states where it doesn’t rain, doesn’t snow and have perfect roads with line like in Arizona because here in Montreal it would be a disaster.

which version are you on?

V11 and before was super stressfull. V12 is not. I am now even doing the most mundane and shortest drives on FSD - trick is not to get complacent. Atleast 250 Miles accumulated on FSD 12
(FSD on HWY - still haven't tried but for a few times ...)

 

[Patrick66]

I am not a stressed kind of person.
But when I let FSD drive, I become another person.

The way is slams brakes, phantom brake, miss stops, miss red lights, don’t anticipate people on the side of the road, as soon as there is a pile of snow on the side of the road it stops and doesn’t go around, I am 100% confident is not ready for Northern driving. In Florida, Texas, California, no problem. But the way it hits every ****ing pothole dead center here in Montreal, a FSD car will have its suspension destroyed within 2 weeks.

If 8/8 FSD deployment is the plan to deploy all the unsold Model 3 and Model Y from China, then I hope they deploy them in the states where it doesn’t rain, doesn’t snow and have perfect roads with line like in Arizona because here in Montreal it would be a disaster.

The pothole thing drives me nuts too... but for my driving the rest of your complaints sound like previous versions. FSD frequently and properly deals with road hazards above the road like a good human driver.

A few things are not graceful yet-- the inching forward into a sudden decision that feels a little late is the biggest one for me, especially with no clarity on what it is going to do.

 

[Knightshade]

For robotaxi, where human is not required - it will immediately be L3 and then based on how good it is can me L4 as well.

Again none of that is at all how the SAE levels work.

L3 still requires a human to be present-and awake- just not always, actively, driving, at all times-- you can not have an L3 system that doesn't require a human at all.

L4 requires more than "L3 that is really good"

Each higher level of automation requires specific, explicit, capabilities the lower levels lack.. it's never a question of "If you have a level x system that gets really good at level X things, it can be promoted to level y"


Please before a mod has to step in, move over here to educate yourselves.

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

Or failing that- at least actually read J3016 (not just the summary chart that is more confusing than less if you've not read the underlying document-- or even worse whatever chart you posted that isn't even accurate to the actual SAE summary chart).

 

[Jim Holder]

The pothole thing drives me nuts too... but for my driving the rest of your complaints sound like previous versions. FSD frequently and properly deals with road hazards above the road like a good human driver.

A few things are not graceful yet-- the inching forward into a sudden decision that feels a little late is the biggest one for me, especially with no clarity on what it is going to do.

Also legacy (i.e., 2016-2020) and out-of-calibration cars will have a degraded experience over more recent refreshes and blame all of the latest FSD 12.3.x when it's likely the car/cameras, or super local issues. Not excusing Tesla just balancing blame addresses.

 

[elasalle]

Again none of that is at all how the SAE levels work.

L3 still requires a human to be present-and awake- just not always, actively, driving, at all times-- you can not have an L3 system that doesn't require a human at all.

L4 requires more than "L3 that is really good"

Each higher level of automation requires specific, explicit, capabilities the lower levels lack.. it's never a question of "If you have a level x system that gets really good at level X things, it can be promoted to level y"


Please before a mod has to step in, move over here to educate yourselves.

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

Or failing that- at least actually read J3016 (not just the summary chart that is more confusing than less if you've not read the underlying document-- or even worse whatever chart you posted that isn't even accurate to the actual SAE summary chart).

OK,
lots of threads so not sure which one to go to.

Can you point to a thread which explains Waymo being L4 is better than FSD L2 ?
... cheers!

 

[Yoona]

I am not a stressed kind of person.
But when I let FSD drive, I become another person.

The way is slams brakes, phantom brake, miss stops, miss red lights, don’t anticipate people on the side of the road, as soon as there is a pile of snow on the side of the road it stops and doesn’t go around, I am 100% confident is not ready for Northern driving. In Florida, Texas, California, no problem. But the way it hits every ****ing pothole dead center here in Montreal, a FSD car will have its suspension destroyed within 2 weeks.

If 8/8 FSD deployment is the plan to deploy all the unsold Model 3 and Model Y from China, then I hope they deploy them in the states where it doesn’t rain, doesn’t snow and have perfect roads with line like in Arizona because here in Montreal it would be a disaster.

FSD is ready when i can take eyes off the road and play blackjack with the girls at the back

until then, no muy bueno

tsla bets are ~172.50

 

[Jim Holder]

FYI -C200 July 19, 2024 (99 days) is paying around $9.00

Seems a decent bet since ppl will likely hedge before 8/8 and SP will likely not exceed $200 beforehand. At the same time if TSLA tanks on 4/23 to $150's-$140's, or market pukes in May/June, then the amount gained from BTC at lows will be greater than a -C200 at a closer date. And if for some reason TSLA runs (and @tivoboy gets to eat that shoe...) then can always roll up and out closer to the expiration.

Anything wrong with this thinking?

 

[bmd00]

NFA, but the market is going to correct very hard very soon, according to my chart.

Could you share your chart and reasoning?

 

[elasalle]

FYI -C200 July 19, 2024 (99 days) is paying around $9.00

Seems a decent bet since ppl will likely hedge before 8/8 and SP will likely not exceed $200 beforehand. At the same time if TSLA tanks on 4/23 to $150's-$140's, or market pukes in May/June, then the amount gained from BTC at lows will be greater than a -C200 at a closer date.

Anything wrong with this thinking?

View attachment 1037723

it is after Q2 P&D and a month away from 8/8 ... also after maybe June rate cut
I have April 19 200 CCs ... will need to do something with the naked shares after that ..

 

[juanmedina]

Waymo drives only in city, gets stuck in construction zones, has issues with unprotected turns etc, but since they don't have driver there are at L4
For robotaxi, where human is not required - it will immediately be L3 and then based on how good it is can me L4 as well. Can FSD do the above better than waymo? Seems like a yes ...View attachment 1037706

I don't understand how Tesla doesn't have OEDR for Level 3, it detects cars no? Cones? And the are probably classified. For level 4 it has some kind of "fall back" it slows down to a stop and put the hazard lights if the driver is not paying attention. How much harder is to make it pull on the side of the road or having the car go in a parking lot? Do the Waymo vehicles reverse? Maybe I am wrong here but those technicalities doesn't seem hard to achieve to me.

 

[tivoboy]

FSD is ready when i can take eyes off the road and play blackjack with the girls at the back

until then, no muy bueno

I just want it to be able to allow me to totally take my eyes or control off the road, and let me work, trade, reset alerts, have my ipad in my lap and work on trading or documents, or easy reading.

I either need that, or I need TOS or some other AI system to be able to take voice input and act on it, either resetting alerts, pulling up tickers, and reading me MY analysis of the info, creating a combination ticket, putting in an order, with a spoken limit price, telling me bid/ask, etc.

Frankly, i think we’re closer to the latter than the former.

 

[Yoona]

-C200 July 19, 2024 (99 days) is paying around $9.00

Seems a decent bet since ppl will likely hedge before 8/8 and SP will likely not exceed $200 beforehand. At the same time if TSLA tanks on 4/23 to $150's-$140's, or market pukes in May/June, then the amount gained from BTC at lows will be greater than a -C200 at a closer date.

Anything wrong with this thinking?

View attachment 1037723

if tsla announces stock split or share buyback or Buffet decides to go all-in, you're toast?

 

[Knightshade]

OK,
lots of threads so not sure which one to go to.

Can you point to a thread which explains Waymo being L4 is better than FSD L2 ?
... cheers!

...better at what?

It's kind of like saying "Is this wrench better than this drill?"-- like both things are tools- but one is better at some things and the other is better at others-- and both have specific things they can do that the other can't.


Waymo for example is infinitely better at operating safely without a human- because Teslas system can't do that at all.

Teslas system is infinitely better at assisting a human driver to travel from one city to an entirely different city- because Waymos system can't do that at all.

There's lots of other things BOTH can do (stop for a red light, make an unprotected left, etc) where one might be 'better' than the other at that task of course but data available tends to be so anecdotal (especially for Tesla, since they're not required to self-report any specifics at L2, unlike Waymo at L4) it's hard to say which is "better" and a specific thing like that.


If you want specific discussion of Waymo probably best thread is here:

Waymo

So.. long thread, but was pointed here when I asked these questions: Do we know what kind of on-board compute Waymo has? And what they throw at it for training compute? Any pointers to specific post/answers appreciated, as reading 189 pages might take a while :)

teslamotorsclub.com

If you want specific discussion of FSD 12.x probably best thread is here:

FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

The solution is crowd sourcing map data errors which is the major problem with FSD. NN works it's ability to drive which is getting rock solid. However it can only drive well determined by the map data. I have been to cities with near perfect map data and the car was near flawless even on v11...

teslamotorsclub.com

If you want a deep understanding of the SAE levels the best thing, by far, would be to actually invest the time to read J3016 yourself. Which is here:

https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/54/02/2d5919914cfe9549e79721b12e66/j3016-202104.pdf

 

[thenewguy1979]

Also legacy (i.e., 2016-2020) and out-of-calibration cars will have a degraded experience over more recent refreshes and blame all of the latest FSD 12.3.x when it's likely the car/cameras, or super local issues. Not excusing Tesla just balancing blame addresses.

Yep.

My Model Y drove better with FSD 12.3.3 then the the X with 12.3.4.

 

[thenewguy1979]

if tsla announces stock split or share buyback or Buffet decides to go all-in, you're toast?

It's going get toasty on this whole forum if those are the cases during ER...........real toasty.

Maybe just stay out of ER???

 

[UncaNed]

Further discussion ought go here:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

I just got 12.3.4 in my 2018 X75D, and it is very much improved. We might even see that reflected in the share price after a couple years; until then, I'd be happy if FSD was discussed somewhere else.

I was surprised when I clicked what I thought would be a FSD thread, it turned out to be just a list of [edit-defunct assorted] FSD threads... Isn't there one single active thread where FSD posts might be happier than here or the investing thread?

 

[Knightshade]

I was surprised when I clicked what I thought would be a FSD thread, it turned out to be just a list of defunct FSD threads... Isn't there one single active thread where FSD posts might be happier than here or the investing thread?

Uh- that URL is a list of all threads in the FSD/AI sub forum.

At a glance I see 10 threads with posts in the last hour, 27 threads with posts in the last 24 hours, and over 50 more threads with posts in the last week.