Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[StarFoxisDown!]

yea for sure but until they reveal fsd take rate percentage after this discount, i don’t think this will help much but who knows

50/50 odds there will be some sort of tweet from Elon or the Tesla account by Monday morning saying something like "FSD subscriber rate 5X'd since the price announcement".

Of course, we don't know the base. But there are a lot of ways Tesla can pump the numbers here.


....Probably a chart or two by Monday as well

 

[Jim Holder]

i don’t think this will help much but who knows

From my side if it helps us get to $185 so we can have some entries for shorts if we’re inclined to do so, it would have been worth it

 

[dl003]

Sure glad you closed the -C200 and 160/150 spread today I’m sure. Good instincts again!

I’m happy too to be mostly flat on short calls for a change. Feels empty but necessary.

I sure don't like to fight an enemy I cant see. SPY is dropping hard and my SPY shorts are pretty but TSLA is basically $6 up on the week not including the AH. There's something going on that we don't know, or maybe just don't want to acknowledge. I think there's a greater than zero chance the wide release FSD has turned a few people into holders and that's where the buying is coming from. Other than that, there's no reason as we're approaching an ER that could be perceived by most as a disastrous one. If people are buying because of FSD, it can transcend a bad ER.

Chart-wise, it's clean. For me to feel bearish, we need to trade 164.

I really hope we shoot up after ER, not because I think there's some miracle Elon can perform, but because then the buying pressure will come out in the light and we'll know what we're dealing with. The worst thing that can happen, IMO, is a bad ER & bad guidance but somehow people keep buying and we remain range-bound for another 3 months with "breaking news" in the AH every other day.

 

[Jim Holder]

I sure don't like to fight an enemy I cant see. SPY is dropping hard and my SPY shorts are pretty but TSLA is basically $6 up on the week not including the AH. There's something going on that we don't know, or maybe just don't want to acknowledge. I think there's a greater than zero chance the wide release FSD has turned a few people into holders and that's where the buying is coming from. Other than that, there's no reason as we're approaching an ER that is perceived by most as a disastrous one. If people are buying because of FSD, it can transcend a bad ER.

Chart-wise, it's clean. For me to feel bearish, we need to trade 164.

I really hope we shoot up after ER, not because I think there's some miracle Elon can perform, but because then the buying pressure will come out in the light and we'll know what we're dealing with. The worst thing that can happen, IMO, is a bad ER & bad guidance but somehow people keep buying and we remain range-bound for another 3 months with "breaking news" in the AH every other day.

If we hit $185 next week gonna be hard to resist selling some -C225 or -C230 a few months out (covered; roll or wheel if exercised) because we usually revisit the breakout levels at some point and a market may help as well.

Will you really be sitting out TSLA and short through SPY instead?

 

[Max Plaid]

I think $99 its a more realistic price, but until it's actually L5 it's just something to show off to your friends - and if the take-rate doesn't increase then they start to lose revenue

It all reeks of desperation to me, ER is going to suck big time

Incredibly low volume today too

We need the compact car, then I'll start to believe again...

 

[Cherry Wine]

I sure don't like to fight an enemy I cant see. SPY is dropping hard and my SPY shorts are pretty but TSLA is basically $6 up on the week not including the AH. There's something going on that we don't know, or maybe just don't want to acknowledge. I think there's a greater than zero chance the wide release FSD has turned a few people into holders and that's where the buying is coming from. Other than that, there's no reason as we're approaching an ER that could be perceived by most as a disastrous one. If people are buying because of FSD, it can transcend a bad ER.

Chart-wise, it's clean. For me to feel bearish, we need to trade 164.

I really hope we shoot up after ER, not because I think there's some miracle Elon can perform, but because then the buying pressure will come out in the light and we'll know what we're dealing with. The worst thing that can happen, IMO, is a bad ER & bad guidance but somehow people keep buying and we remain range-bound for another 3 months with "breaking news" in the AH every other day.

Feel the exact same way. This range bound stuff has been difficult to trade.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778844021198045484

 

[ssipak]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778844021198045484

did you just wake up?

 

[elasalle]

did you just wake up?

no I was working ... any problem with that?

chatter here seemed to be that Iran/Israell conflict might escalate .. but seems like a nothin burger (not all out conflict - Israel has no oil, but Iran does)

can we get back to EM pumping the stock now

Mon gonna be green

 

[thenewguy1979]

Careful guys. Seem Elon and Co. are doing what they can to negates the negatives going into ER. The $99 FSD and the trip to India can bring some big news.

As dl003 mentioned worse can happen is it went flat at ER blowing the Bear and Bull out of the Water. Or goto one far extreme and blast through even a 7 delta IC.

Got to give Elon credits for the flurry of actions.

 

[dl003]

If we hit $185 next week gonna be hard to resist selling some -C225 or -C230 a few months out (covered; roll or wheel if exercised) because we usually revisit the breakout levels at some point and a market may help as well.

Will you really be sitting out TSLA and short through SPY instead?

1st, I keep seeing 185 next week as some high prob target. I dont see it that way.

If we do see 185, its not gonna happen on no news so I need to see what the news is. my st lean rn is bullish until proven otherwise. A spike will only confirm it so shorting by default is not a plan I like.

 

[Patrick66]

$99 is the right price-- low enough to keep people interested after the free month, low enough to increase the price as performance increases, and high enough that it is material.

To me, it gives credence to the idea that Tesla wasn't really interested in selling FSD last few Q's.

 

[juanmedina]

I sure don't like to fight an enemy I cant see. SPY is dropping hard and my SPY shorts are pretty but TSLA is basically $6 up on the week not including the AH. There's something going on that we don't know, or maybe just don't want to acknowledge. I think there's a greater than zero chance the wide release FSD has turned a few people into holders and that's where the buying is coming from. Other than that, there's no reason as we're approaching an ER that could be perceived by most as a disastrous one. If people are buying because of FSD, it can transcend a bad ER.

Chart-wise, it's clean. For me to feel bearish, we need to trade 164.

I really hope we shoot up after ER, not because I think there's some miracle Elon can perform, but because then the buying pressure will come out in the light and we'll know what we're dealing with. The worst thing that can happen, IMO, is a bad ER & bad guidance but somehow people keep buying and we remain range-bound for another 3 months with "breaking news" in the AH every other day.

So if you had cash would you buy shares right now? @tivoboy any additional thoughts?

 

[OrthoSurg]

$99 for FSD monthly is exactly what it’s worth
$299 would be worth it if you can send your car in a fleet if robotaxis and make money from it
$15,000 would be worth it if the license was lifetime and transferred to all the new Tesla cars you guys for the rest of your life
$199 would be worth it for someone doing a lot of driving monthly
$99 is a no brainer if you go for couple long drives during the week end and go for a road trip.

Some revenues will start to be recognized by WS, guidance might help ER. Starting to feel non bearish for the first time over 6-9 months.

 

[tivoboy]

i'd rather lose 1 week of income than take unknown risk

actually, it's not even lost income, it's only lost opportunity

Go’s into the pantheon of investor mantra.

 

[tivoboy]

Tesla is really pulling all the levers to improve the financials. I am not sure what to think about it. I really want to buy 30% of the shares that I sold back and I was hoping for a better price. After ER I will make my decision.

Mkt loves #FBI

 

[tivoboy]

I think $99 its a more realistic price, but until it's actually L5 it's just something to show off to your friends - and if the take-rate doesn't increase then they start to lose revenue

It all reeks of desperation to me, ER is going to suck big time

Incredibly low volume today too

We need the compact car, then I'll start to believe again...

Mkt loves #FBI

 

[tivoboy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778844021198045484

I looked up “calibrated” in the international terrorist dictionary and it says… “how do I attack my intended target WITHOUT PISSING OFF THE USA!”

There’s probably some terrorist AI that works on these problems for them. I wonder if it’s running on AWS, or something more local.

;-). It’s Friday, we gotta blow off some steam, right?

 

[tivoboy]

$99 is the right price-- low enough to keep people interested after the free month, low enough to increase the price as performance increases, and high enough that it is material.

To me, it gives credence to the idea that Tesla wasn't really interested in selling FSD last few Q's.

Well, and JUST enough not to piss off TOO many ppl who paid 15K for something, that hasn’t materialized yet, with a car out of warranty but with a 10 year battery warranty.

$99 a month, ~ $1200 a year, unless one can come and go as the please.. Whereas the poor schlub who paid $15K at some point in the past ~ 5 years. with a car with a 10 year battery and drive train warranty of some sort paid ~ $1500 a year. so, it’s not as annoying as some legacy owners might think.

 

[tivoboy]

So if you had cash would you buy shares right now? @tivoboy any additional thoughts?

I am not buying any TSLA right now… today I deployed $$ in PFE, UNH, BAC, JPM, ADBE, GOOGL and RIVN (oh the horror)