Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Knightshade]

Informative as usual.. thanks for the work.

I wonder if there is ANY way to estimate what the transfer to new vehicle rate is.. 50% sounds high, 10% sounds low, something like 20-25% seems most reasonable - but as you say we really have no way of knowing..

But at least we know the universe of most likely at least L4 promised to them is >~45K owners (maybe less with 2 cars per family unit)

That many cars, X some compounded valuation of monies paid, could be ~ 1$B. Seems like a pretty large amount, and one where I’d think the better path would be allow ALL those ppl to transfer FSD to a new vehicle for LIFE.

well, keep in mind the folks we're talking about only paid 3k for FSD mostly (a few may have paid 2k or 4k)... because you had to buy EAP (for 5-6k mostly) before you could add FSD on top.

And EAP has been a fully delivered product on those cars, for years.

So 45k owners times 3k liability is only 135 million bucks.

Even if DOUBLE that for interest (and real world would be lower) you're only just over 1/4 billion. Not nothing, but not that huge an amount to Tesla.

That said- current path seems to be keep offering FSD transfer until they filter as many as possible out either through the transfers or simply leaving service- so # should keep shrinking over time too.

Nothing here seems material to anything short term though....

 

[juanmedina]

No bueno.

Live updates: Iran launches dozens of drones toward Israel

Iran has launched drones toward Israel, according to an Israel Defense Forces spokesperson. Follow for live updates.

www.cnn.com

 

[tivoboy]

well, keep in mind the folks we're talking about only paid 3k for FSD mostly (a few may have paid 2k or 4k)... because you had to buy EAP (for 5-6k mostly) before you could add FSD on top.

And EAP has been a fully delivered product on those cars, for years.

So 45k owners times 3k liability is only 135 million bucks.

Even if DOUBLE that for interest (and real world would be lower) you're only just over 1/4 billion. Not nothing, but not that huge an amount to Tesla.

That said- current path seems to be keep offering FSD transfer until they filter as many as possible out either through the transfers or simply leaving service- so # should keep shrinking over time too.

Nothing here seems material to anything short term though....

You’re right, it’s probably ~ 45K x 6-8K average.. so much closer to 300M, not including compounding or adjustments.. I still think that any monetary settlement would be higher than just average amount paid, and to be paid back, refunded or credited towards a future purchase. So, I’m thinking avg. 10K MAYBE.

Overall, I’d rather they just come up with some resolution for many of the above proposed options. USER carried FSD sounds pretty easy to do and about right, no cost, zero out the liability.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Btw, my shorting of MSTR over the weekend (BTO p900 and p1100 for next Friday (BTC halving day) can become a very profitable move, seeing bitcoin falling off the cliff. The moment I bought these expensive puts I thought “stupid gamble” but now I think I will not regret this on Monday. Hope to sell the p900 right away to pay for both [$8.65] and see if this maybe could become a $200 a piece trade.
On topic: Recently I talked about a black swan needed TSLA SP to go below 160. Think we have one on our hands now.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Which positions, long or short?

Long (in fact I just sold a few leaps and kept the -P that are safe for assignment up to SP $145, moneywise, so no loss no gain)

 

[thenewguy1979]

Btw, my shorting of MSTR over the weekend (BTO p900 and p1100 for next Friday (BTC halving day) can become a very profitable move, seeing bitcoin falling off the cliff. The moment I bought these expensive puts I thought “stupid gamble” but now I think I will not regret this on Monday. Hope to sell the p900 right away to pay for both [$8.65] and see if this maybe could become a $200 a piece trade.
On topic: Recently I talked about a black swan needed TSLA SP to go below 160. Think we have one on our hands now.

War is bad. Why can’t people get along.
This is sad.

Not sure how Market react but volatility should be high. Maybe baked in on Friday drop?

 

[tivoboy]

War is bad. Why can’t people get along.
This is sad.

Not sure how Market react but volatility should be high. Maybe baked in on Friday drop?

We’ll know in a couple hours. Could be they simply threw a bunch of volley balls over the fence and Israel may do next to nothing. At that point I doubt we’d get too much vol. oil will most likely to $90 and $95. $DXY increasing in strength. You wanna see some vol. check out $BTC

 

[Patrick66]

You wanna see some vol. check out $BTC

I'm starting to feel like it would be "fun" to play the channel there, but might need to start on the baby asprin before to manage the blood pressure.

I can feel the shift coming in the broader investment market... but I'm still at a loss on where the "smart money" will go. I think I might have an ethics issue with where it is moving.

 

[thenewguy1979]

We’ll know in a couple hours. Could be they simply threw a bunch of volley balls over the fence and Israel may do next to nothing. At that point I doubt we’d get too much vol. oil will most likely to $90 and $95. $DXY increasing in strength. You wanna see some vol. check out $BTC

Iran already stated their action should be considered closing, unless Israel responded….

No matter what happen. Gunpowder need to be reserved and ready.

If full scales escalation and US step in then that drop in SPY will happen sooner then later.

TSLA is its own beast.

 

[thenewguy1979]

I'm starting to feel like it would be "fun" to play the channel there, but might need to start on the baby asprin before to manage the blood pressure.

I can feel the shift coming in the broader investment market... but I'm still at a loss on where the "smart money" will go. I think I might have an ethics issue with where it is moving.

old articles but guess this is where you’re going

Op-ed: With continued geopolitical conflicts, here are defense stocks investors should consider

Continuing wars and geopolitical hotspots could mean increased revenues for U.S. defense contractors, enhancing the allure of stocks in the category.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Yoona]

I can feel the shift coming in the broader investment market... but I'm still at a loss on where the "smart money" will go. I think I might have an ethics issue with where it is moving.

bad news: institutions abandoned TSLA early January after the bad earnings

good news: they are slowly coming back

 

[elasalle]

old articles but guess this is where you’re going

Op-ed: With continued geopolitical conflicts, here are defense stocks investors should consider

Continuing wars and geopolitical hotspots could mean increased revenues for U.S. defense contractors, enhancing the allure of stocks in the category.

www.cnbc.com

Smart money on the good stocks that drop a lot, retail/FOMO on the defense stocks
But maybe it’s over for now

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779277300858524128

Don’t do anything base gets angry, do too much and US Gets angry

 

[thenewguy1979]

Smart money on the good stocks that drop a lot, retail/FOMO on the defense stocks
But maybe it’s over for now

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779277300858524128

Don’t do anything base gets angry, do too much and US Gets angry

If that the end. Market pump Monday. We will see

 

[Patrick66]

old articles but guess this is where you’re going

Sadly, no. I can get behind investment in the [diversified] defense industry. I find some of the other things significantly worse on my moral scale. Less about stocks and more about other things.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

We’ll know in a couple hours. Could be they simply threw a bunch of volley balls over the fence and Israel may do next to nothing. At that point I doubt we’d get too much vol. oil will most likely to $90 and $95. $DXY increasing in strength. You wanna see some vol. check out $BTC

Oil up means more inflation for longer.. manufacturing for resupplying army means more moneysupply as is stepping up defence. War is indeed very bad and alas not for markets in the first place. (Luckily now, a lot of material was downed and) BTC DCB’d a lot, but I fear this could be an explosive situation for longer.

 

[Max Plaid]

We’ll know in a couple hours. Could be they simply threw a bunch of volley balls over the fence and Israel may do next to nothing. At that point I doubt we’d get too much vol. oil will most likely to $90 and $95. $DXY increasing in strength. You wanna see some vol. check out $BTC

Seems Iran's response was both unprecedented, but also not very effective. Launching an attack directly from Iran is new, but they must have known that Isreal has the means to shoot down pretty much everything like that, so they made a big grand gesture to make themselves look good in the eyes of their allies, but likely won't escalate things...

Must have cost a lot of money though... imagine if these countries spent that on education instead...

 

[thenewguy1979]

Seems Iran's response was both unprecedented, but also not very effective. Launching an attack directly from Iran is new, but they must have known that Isreal has the means to shoot down pretty much everything like that, so they made a big grand gesture to make themselves look good in the eyes of their allies, but likely won't escalate things...

Must have cost a lot of money though... imagine if these countries spent that on education instead...

It was all fireworks. Just a demonstration with no intent to caused mass casualty.

Its up to Israel how it going to end.

Not sure how Market going react but its so far a nothing burger. Let hope it end.

 

[Jim Holder]

Current Moving Averages
5-Day: $173.45
20-Day: $172.37
50-Day: $181.85
100-Day: $207.22
200-Day: $227.81

 

[Jim Holder]

It was all fireworks. Just a demonstration with no intent to caused mass casualty.

Um...firing 300+ missiles at a civilian population is 100% intent to cause mass death and destruction. I don't know how that can be viewed any other way. Had they not been defended against and had gotten through that's exactly what would have happened.

Onto TSLA, the sobering question is can it tread water above $170-$160 to save its life through earnings AND if/when the market corrects + any continued high interest rate ("higher for loooooonger").

Even if SPX somehow gets a final rally back to the 5300+ region this week and then starts its big correction with a sustained breakdown below 5091, pointing to 4900 and/or 4600 (+ lots of air below that too!). Will that give the TSLA bears their dream of <$100 for TSLA?

 

[Singuy]

Um...firing 300+ missiles at a civilian population is 100% intent to cause mass death and destruction. I don't know how that can be viewed any other way. Had they not been defended against and had gotten through that's exactly what would have happened.

Onto TSLA, the sobering question is can it tread water above $170-$160 to save its life through earnings AND if/when the market corrects + any continued high interest rate ("higher for loooooonger").

Even if SPX somehow gets a final rally back to the 5300+ region this week and then starts its big correction with a sustained breakdown below 5091, pointing to 4900 and/or 4600 (+ lots of air below that too!). Will that give the TSLA bears their dream of <$100 for TSLA?

View attachment 1038486

There are launch strategies that can counter some of their defenses and we obviously didn't see them use such strategies. Even some hamas missiles gotten through.

And then to announce "mission accomplished" after they hit nothing? Yeah the only thing missing was a call to Isreal giving them all the telemetry of their drones....