thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
US working de-escalates calling this a win for Israel. Let hope it end here.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
US working de-escalates calling this a win for Israel. Let hope it end here.
Where are you seeing that??
Mostly WS reacts favourably to lay-off, except when it's Tesla...
I don't even want to give them a click, but Business Insider ran an article on it yesterday I believe. It's very thinly sourced.
I saw some posts, what Fri/Sat.. I didn’t know they had been “confirmed”,, but if they are, I think it will be more negative than positive. Normally, companies get props for right sizing, doing the 5% thing - this IS the year of “efficiency” but for a manufacturer mostly it means they just don’t need as many people for the production they plan to do. Also, for a TSLA or tech company, HIRING is HARD (not like production, but similar) and COSTLY, so actually letting ppl go means you think you won’t need to hire them back or more for some time, and the cost benefit of not having the headcount outweighs, the COST+REHIRE cost. COULD be they want/need different ppl. More AI engineering, more modern manufacturing, more ppl in DIFFERENT locations vs. what they have and relocation is more costly than terminate/severance/rehire-retrain, etc. So, if I had to sum it up I would saw, mkt no likey maybe TILL likey.
Well as @JH said, it wasn’t nothing.. first time FROM IRAN TO ISRAEL, LOTS of salvo’s and technologies deployed.. I DO think that what Iran chose to do and deploy was thought out in the context of basically how much Israel, the USA, UK and France (and Jordan) would be able to take out in flight and prior to entering Israeli airspace. I mean really, launching 200+ drones that fly at ~ 80-100 mph at most, easily tracked, over 1000+ miles. A couple of ST6 recruits on a hill with some sniper rifles could take out a lot of that. ;-).
What it IS is an expense… IRAN spent ~ 20-40M maybe, (I could be off here, someone will correct me) and the USA/ISRAEL/UK/FRANCE and Jordan spent probably 150-200M to defend Israel. AND expent a lot of costly but limited supply munitions and capability. I can say one thing, Israel and whatever allies they have could NOT do this every day for a week. More than 1% would land at some target.
OIL, is going up, I put my $90 WTC and $95 BRENT numbers out a while ago, we’ll hit those targets I believe.. maybe not tomorrow, but soon. I think there is a more than 50% risk of Iranian Oil supply to the world markets - direct or indirect of ~ 1-2Mbpd being AT RISK, which is just enough to push DOWN supply below current equilibrium, and push up price. At that point Saudi, SOME opec would most likely increase supply - meaning reduce the cuts they have had in place for ~ 1yr.
NQA, $DXY going up even higher, meaning well - you’ve all heard me talk about dollar denominated assets ad nauesium.
OIL up for EV is normally GOOD, but frankly I think TSLA and EV is not in a good place at the moment.. So I don’t think there is any realistic CURRENT narrative that can boost their demand.
Overall, It’ll be risk off for some period of time. Even just a de-escalation is going to take some time for mkts to focus on greed and opportunity vs. risk tolerance. If it escalates, it’s FULLY risk off..
Good thing is bonds will rally, yields will fall, so that provides a buffer domestically, and increases overall chances that Fed will cut sooner rather than later/never that has been the narrative leading up to this. As ppl say, careful what you wish for.. nobody wants the fed to HAVE TO cut rates..just make it LESS restrictive, but geo-political risk is always a hard to model wild card.
If you’ve sold a lot of May/June CC against mostly anything other than defense or oil industry complex, I think you’ll probably get a very nice chance to take some of that off tomorrow/tuesday/wednesday. I know I thought I was going to be fighting theta on a lot of -cc, but I think IV will spike generally, and we could get to 80-90% cratering in options pricing that even just a few days ago was ~ 40-50% for May/June lots.
One can always re-write calls/premium once the dust has settled or more information is known. As always, NFA
And DBG
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Tesla abruptly ends free FSD transfer program
Tesla has decided to end their free Full Self-Driving (FSD) transfer program, one day after slashing the price of the FSD subscription in the US and launching subscriptions in Canada. Tesla first offered FSD transfers […]
driveteslacanada.ca
Didn’t know they had 8 days to transfer their FSD. 1 time opportunity, unannounced.
Maybe they CANCEL this just in time to ANNOUNCE that anyone WITH FSD at this point gets to KEEP FSD for any future vehicle… for a small fee.Tesla abruptly ends free FSD transfer program
Tesla has decided to end their free Full Self-Driving (FSD) transfer program, one day after slashing the price of the FSD subscription in the US and launching subscriptions in Canada. Tesla first offered FSD transfers […]
Didn’t know they had 8 days to transfer their FSD. 1 time opportunity, unannounced.
“You get a car, and YOU get a CAR!”
bmd00
Member
You know the chicken and the egg debate? What about fundamentals vs technicals?
For those who believe in Elon, have been following him for years, have read his biography, and who believe in TSLA and FSD and robotaxis and optimus, it may seem obvious that the fundamentals will eventually catch up causing the SP to catapult. But then there’s technical analysis and investor psychology. I’ve seen multiple times TA warning of a fall or and rally before they happen. Perhaps it’s a combination of both TA and fundamental analysis that will yield the most success to those committed to understanding both.
On Mar 14th and 15th, the current bottom of this move, SP found support along a trendline leading back to Aug 18th, 2023, and formed a very subtle bullish candle pattern. As you can see below, in the last 30 min on Mar 14th SP formed a bullish engulfing candle. In my opinion, this in and of itself was not significant enough to trade on but was a warning sign for bears. The next day the SP opened up and later failed to push lower forming a bullish hammer candle at 11:30 along the support line. The SP then rallied the rest of the day to close slightly up.
Monday, Mar 18th TSLA announced it would be raising prices on the Model Y starting in April and the SP gaped up at the open and later rallied throughout the day. Why did the stock price bottom Mar 14th and 15th? As far as I’m aware there was no major news or fundamental catalyst that was announced either of these days. But perhaps some of the big money caught wind of what was coming in the days ahead. And perhaps that made itself known in the chart before the news became public.
After hours on Mar 25th Elon announced the FSD demo requirement. The SP then jumped at the open on the 26th but formed a bearish shooting star at 9:30 along the descending resistance trendline. This signaled the bulls had lost control at a key pivotal point. Was this our first warning of what was to come from P&D? Perhaps the chart was hinting at the direction the SP was likely to take in the days ahead (Hence why I believe the chart is itself a crystal ball, if you know how to read it). If the SP had crossed above the trendline on Mar 26th, it would’ve been a different story. On Apr 1st, the SP did find temporary support along the short-term ascending support line, which may have appeared bullish, but the larger trend has priority over the shorter trend.
Then there was the news on Friday, Apr 5th. A false news article said that TSLA had canceled their affordable mass-market car to pursue the robotaxi. The SP fell to a low of $160.51 but no lower than the exact low from 3 weeks prior on Mar 14th. Why didn’t it push lower? Not even 1 cent lower than Mar 14th’s low. Coincidence? Then Elon tweeted the article was a lie and the SP rebounded. So was it the technicals or the fundamentals that caused the stock to halt to the downtrend? The chicken or the egg?
Going into this week, SP appears to be in limbo. SP crossed above the descending resistance trendline last week, although the break wasn’t on significant volume and the trendline doesn’t appear to be as respected as I would've liked. This makes me nervous to immediately start trading the upside. That said, it was a break and the SP failing to break $160.51 twice has caused me to caution against trading the downside. This is one of the many times it may be wise to wait and do nothing until we have more data from the chart, NFA. The chart could very well show us the direction it will take after Apr 23rd before earnings are even released.
For those who believe in Elon, have been following him for years, have read his biography, and who believe in TSLA and FSD and robotaxis and optimus, it may seem obvious that the fundamentals will eventually catch up causing the SP to catapult. But then there’s technical analysis and investor psychology. I’ve seen multiple times TA warning of a fall or and rally before they happen. Perhaps it’s a combination of both TA and fundamental analysis that will yield the most success to those committed to understanding both.
On Mar 14th and 15th, the current bottom of this move, SP found support along a trendline leading back to Aug 18th, 2023, and formed a very subtle bullish candle pattern. As you can see below, in the last 30 min on Mar 14th SP formed a bullish engulfing candle. In my opinion, this in and of itself was not significant enough to trade on but was a warning sign for bears. The next day the SP opened up and later failed to push lower forming a bullish hammer candle at 11:30 along the support line. The SP then rallied the rest of the day to close slightly up.
Monday, Mar 18th TSLA announced it would be raising prices on the Model Y starting in April and the SP gaped up at the open and later rallied throughout the day. Why did the stock price bottom Mar 14th and 15th? As far as I’m aware there was no major news or fundamental catalyst that was announced either of these days. But perhaps some of the big money caught wind of what was coming in the days ahead. And perhaps that made itself known in the chart before the news became public.
After hours on Mar 25th Elon announced the FSD demo requirement. The SP then jumped at the open on the 26th but formed a bearish shooting star at 9:30 along the descending resistance trendline. This signaled the bulls had lost control at a key pivotal point. Was this our first warning of what was to come from P&D? Perhaps the chart was hinting at the direction the SP was likely to take in the days ahead (Hence why I believe the chart is itself a crystal ball, if you know how to read it). If the SP had crossed above the trendline on Mar 26th, it would’ve been a different story. On Apr 1st, the SP did find temporary support along the short-term ascending support line, which may have appeared bullish, but the larger trend has priority over the shorter trend.
Then there was the news on Friday, Apr 5th. A false news article said that TSLA had canceled their affordable mass-market car to pursue the robotaxi. The SP fell to a low of $160.51 but no lower than the exact low from 3 weeks prior on Mar 14th. Why didn’t it push lower? Not even 1 cent lower than Mar 14th’s low. Coincidence? Then Elon tweeted the article was a lie and the SP rebounded. So was it the technicals or the fundamentals that caused the stock to halt to the downtrend? The chicken or the egg?
Going into this week, SP appears to be in limbo. SP crossed above the descending resistance trendline last week, although the break wasn’t on significant volume and the trendline doesn’t appear to be as respected as I would've liked. This makes me nervous to immediately start trading the upside. That said, it was a break and the SP failing to break $160.51 twice has caused me to caution against trading the downside. This is one of the many times it may be wise to wait and do nothing until we have more data from the chart, NFA. The chart could very well show us the direction it will take after Apr 23rd before earnings are even released.
Seeing quite the traction on rumors of Tesla layoffs coming this week.
The source of the rumor is weak as hell and the number being referenced (20%) seems completely unrealistic but of course it doesn’t matter if it turns out to be true or not, just that it diminishes the impact of the $99 FSD announcement from Friday
The source of the rumor is weak as hell and the number being referenced (20%) seems completely unrealistic but of course it doesn’t matter if it turns out to be true or not, just that it diminishes the impact of the $99 FSD announcement from Friday
Elon Musk planning to set up entire ecosystem of Tesla in India: Piyush Goyal
Goyal underscored Musk's recognition of India's competitive manufacturing costs and abundant talent pool, which he views as key advantages for establishing Tesla's presence in the country.
www.businesstoday.in
India plans (rumor until confirmed):
- Superchargers
- Gigafactory
- Megapack factory
- Battery plant
- Solar/energy generation plants
Tesla short sellers are desperate. Tesla frequently lays off the under performing workers. This is nothing new. When other companies lay people off because they are doing poorly, their stocks go up.
They are also trying hard on the Cybertruck minor accelerator pedal adhesive problem.
If futures stay up and the market is Green tomorrow, any opening dip should be bought.
They are also trying hard on the Cybertruck minor accelerator pedal adhesive problem.
If futures stay up and the market is Green tomorrow, any opening dip should be bought.
So if Russia launches just 1 nuke at USA fully knowing that USA can easily shoot the thing out of the sky before it does any damage. Does that mean it was just a fire work demonstration?
Either fire works or self destruction. You said it yourself, it's not gonna do damage and they know it won't do damage. So the purpose can't be to do damage...
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
thankfully, I was able to transfer last year Q3, guessing this would be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and now I am hoping for UNECE regulations to soften and make it happen like in North-America and China.Tesla abruptly ends free FSD transfer program
Tesla has decided to end their free Full Self-Driving (FSD) transfer program, one day after slashing the price of the FSD subscription in the US and launching subscriptions in Canada. Tesla first offered FSD transfers […]
Didn’t know they had 8 days to transfer their FSD. 1 time opportunity, unannounced.
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