Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

What do we not know: we don't know what Elon is going to say on the call, but if the past is any indication, i read that the stock has dropped on average ~10% past 4 earnings.

What would make this earnings different? Announcement into India? Model 2 clarification? I am looking for potential catalysts to help me manage expectations on these puts.

Maybe COGS improvements, energy revenue boost, some strategic partnership, FSD take rate...

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[elasalle]

I am holding 420x (ironically not that number on purpose) June +P145. Was going to sell puts against them to make up for the purchase price.

Bought for 7 they are now at 14. I can't foresee the stock going up directly after earnings so i'm going to take the risk and hold, and wait to sell puts against if and when the price drops further.

What do we know: the numbers will be very bad, and judging by delivery could be worse than expected.
What do we not know: we don't know what Elon is going to say on the call, but if the past is any indication, i read that the stock has dropped on average ~10% past 4 earnings.

What would make this earnings different? Announcement into India? Model 2 clarification? I am looking for potential catalysts to help me manage expectations on these puts.

whether M2/Q is a go or not . This is what those outside Tesla will use to determine what 2025/26 growth is like.

FSD, 8/8 - is wait and see
all the price cuts, 2024 P&D is already accepted

 

[Jim Holder]

EW count option: $131 (76.4%) last hurrah before possibly heading to test new lows <$100

 

[vikings123]

Maybe COGS improvements, energy revenue boost, some strategic partnership, FSD take rate...

I would be shocked if he does not talk about a positive take rate increase. FSD take rate is exceeding expectations but I'm not going to provide any hard numbers. Wall street is not going to believe him.

I don't even think we need to wait for the call for the fireworks, the biggest one for me is FCF. Remember Tesla went from being compute constrained to having enough compute all in Q1. How much did they spend on NVDIA H100s or whatever they needed. This will give a clear signal to Wall Street that Elon is already spending heavy on AI/Robotaxi.

This almost seems similar to what happened to META when Zuck announced major metaverse spending, stock tanked big time and Zuck had to calm investors by decreasing the spend.

TSLA OTOH has already lost more about 25% of it's value since P&D was announced so I'm not sure how much more room there is. I can see a -ve FCF number but I don't know what the margins look like. They are probably going to be bad.

I guess my take is we go down after the release and then more fireworks when call starts, could be up or down nobody who knows

 

[tivoboy]

Says 5/3 or are you referring to something else? I missed it the first time too though

Well, when first posted there was no 5/3 date… that’s all. Corrected is fine.

 

[MikeC]

I am holding 420x (ironically not that number on purpose) June +P145. Was going to sell puts against them to make up for the purchase price.

Bought for 7 they are now at 14. I can't foresee the stock going up directly after earnings so i'm going to take the risk and hold, and wait to sell puts against if and when the price drops further.

What do we know: the numbers will be very bad, and judging by delivery could be worse than expected.
What do we not know: we don't know what Elon is going to say on the call, but if the past is any indication, i read that the stock has dropped on average ~10% past 4 earnings.

What would make this earnings different? Announcement into India? Model 2 clarification? I am looking for potential catalysts to help me manage expectations on these puts.

The most bullish thing to me is everyone’s bearishness. There’s been plenty of time to position for this, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flat to up week from here to kill everyone’s long puts.

I’ve closed most CCs and 130p (lower leg of my bear put spread) for this week. I mostly have -p140-145 (cash-backed) and a few -c155 for Friday

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[Jim Holder]

The most bullish thing to me is everyone’s bearishness. There’s been plenty of time to position for this, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flat to up week from here to kill everyone’s long puts.

I’ve closed most CCs and 130p (lower leg of my bear put spread) for this week. I mostly have -p140-145 (cash-backed) and a few -c155 for Friday

That's a bold prediction

I hope you're right and we're done with the pain!

 

[tivoboy]

The most bullish thing to me is everyone’s bearishness. There’s been plenty of time to position for this, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flat to up week from here to kill everyone’s long puts.

I’ve closed most CCs and 130p (lower leg of my bear put spread) for this week. I mostly have -p140-145 (cash-backed) and a few -c155 for Friday

OFTEN, overall bearishness can indicate a bottom or change in trend/sentiment… it’s a game of chicken. You know my view, lower before higher.

Disclaimer… I have an 8000 share buy order at $125 for this WEEK

 

[MikeC]

That's a bold prediction

I hope you're right and we're done with the pain!

I didn’t say we were done! Just that I don’t think they’ll want to pay out for the obvious long put play.

With that idea, I also sold -p140 for this week against +p140 for next week. If we can end this week above 140 then I’ll have cheap downside protection for next week.

 

[Jim Holder]

To flow readers, how's it looking, plenty sellers still? How's volume?

TIA

 

[Jim Holder]

OFTEN, overall bearishness can indicate a bottom or change in trend/sentiment… it’s a game of chicken. You know my view, lower before higher.

Disclaimer… I have an 8000 share buy order at $125 for this WEEK

Nice, we now have a floor!

Any reason not buying piecemeal, say from $135 down in case it doesn't hit $125?

 

[Jim Holder]

Weekly:

 

[tivoboy]

Nice, we now have a floor!

Any reason not buying piecemeal, say from $135 down in case it doesn't hit $125?

B/c at $125 I get 8% more shares???

There is no world where this is RUNNING AWAY from anyone interested.

 

[Jim Holder]

B/c at $125 I get 8% more shares???

There is no world where this is RUNNING AWAY from anyone interested.

Of course. I meant what if it doesn’t hit $125, unless you’re quite confident it will

 

[Max Plaid]

I am holding 420x (ironically not that number on purpose) June +P145. Was going to sell puts against them to make up for the purchase price.

Bought for 7 they are now at 14. I can't foresee the stock going up directly after earnings so i'm going to take the risk and hold, and wait to sell puts against if and when the price drops further.

What do we know: the numbers will be very bad, and judging by delivery could be worse than expected.
What do we not know: we don't know what Elon is going to say on the call, but if the past is any indication, i read that the stock has dropped on average ~10% past 4 earnings.

What would make this earnings different? Announcement into India? Model 2 clarification? I am looking for potential catalysts to help me manage expectations on these puts.

Yeah, my +p150's cost $7 and they nearly hit $21 earlier... I'm resisting selling against them again, although I may do so tomorrow if we get weakness

I don't believe FSD take-rate improving will change anything. I'm not even sure re-instating the compact will pop the stock and in any case, we know once Musk has decided something's almost impossible to convince otherwise

What could do it for me would be a partnership with Uber to trial RT, say Tesla gift 1000 cars to Uber drivers in Austin and LA, proviso that they have to use FSD and supervise it

That would be meaningful IMO, but seems unlikely...

And yes, any kind of licensing deal with and incumbent would pop things up

So aside selling some opportunistic -p120's if we get a dump, I'm likely to hold them through earnings and if the stock goes up, I'll just start selling weeklies against them

 

[tivoboy]

Of course. I meant what if it doesn’t hit $125, unless you’re quite confident it will

If it doesn’t, I’m ok with that… as I’ve said before I don’t “chase price:”. If we turn around and the narrative changes I can make just as much in % terms of cap deployed as now.. I’ve seen this movie before, I know what the 3rd act looks like

As @MP just posted, there are not a lot of REAL catalysts here.. take rake, meh.. short term in data only, not medium term in uptake.

RT, we’re FIVE months out from announce of “something” which is most likely NOTHING… I doubt EM would even waste a “two weeks” on this.

BEARS and FUD have the advantage here… can anyone really think of a catalyst that could change this….. well ok, I can think of ONE.

NFA NFA NFA

 

[tivoboy]

Of course. I meant what if it doesn’t hit $125, unless you’re quite confident it will

Have you been reading my posts?

 

[BornToFly]

Ford up 6% today. I could swear they just had another MASSIVE recall recently....

Edit: And a predicted massive decrease in earnings YOY Wednesday.