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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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"could've done a better job with their ads"

badmouthing departing staff is real sign this guy isn't management material

the gracious thing to say is 'thank you' and leave words unsaid


sorry, mods
 
View attachment 1040810My LEAPS were +1M at some point 6
Months ago. They are back to the value they were when I bought them when SP was $110 in December 28th.

Another thing I learned, don’t buy LEAPS.
Timing is everything (obviously). 2019 tsla was in a nose dive so much so that I dipped into buying options for the first time since accumulating tiny amounts of tsla starting in 2014. My initial leap was purchased for I think $2000. As tsla continued to dive I ended up buying two more of the same leap for about $200 each. Fast forward and at expiration those 3 leaps were worth over $250k.

It's important to formulate when to purchase, but the other half of the equation is to formulate when to sell and have a system in place that you're comfortable with. Whether it's technical indicators, trailing stops, or profit taking at certain percentage gains, a system is what protects us from our ego's and hopes of riches
 
"could've done a better job with their ads"

badmouthing departing staff is real sign this guy isn't management material

the gracious thing to say is 'thank you' and leave words unsaid


sorry, mods
100%

And ppl excusing it due to Asperger‘s doesn’t make it okay either.
 
100%

And ppl excusing it due to Asperger‘s doesn’t make it okay either.
Yeah. A blind person hitting a wall because they can't see doesn't make it ok....

A diabetic having high blood sugar after eating doesn't make it ok. Their body should know better....

The brain is the most complex organ by far, yet most people aren't willing to accept anything out of the norm. Interesting isn't it? The genius part is ok, but the weird part..., well I don't like that....
 
"could've done a better job with their ads"

badmouthing departing staff is real sign this guy isn't management material

the gracious thing to say is 'thank you' and leave words unsaid


sorry, mods
Heard Steve Jobs wasn't very nice either. One wouldn't have wanted to be caught in the same elevator as he / she could have been fired by the time the ride ended.
 
Thanks. My question was how far can the rubber band stretch up before coming back down. You are very good with estimating those, like last time you said “sell CCs above $209 since SP will have a hard time breaking $x”. That’s the number I was looking for in my question.
Right now that number is 165. Consider:

a/ Put bets are sky high, which means if a squeeze happens, it can be violent.
b/ ER is tomorrow which can trigger a squeeze. There's no telling what ER is going to do.
c/ In the event of a squeeze, 4 weeks is too big a window to play a pullback
d/ We were 165 just last week so a squeeze can make it ITM in no time

I'm not saying there will be a squeeze, but my numbers & timing are always designed for the worst case scenario in the absence of a complete chart, which we're lacking right now. Only 4/26 165+ if selling CCs for me. If you sell 5/3 165, chances are it will expire worthless but there's a slim chance it wont and I don't want to be worried about it if I tell you to do it.

The only exception is if tomorrow we gap down, you can sell any CC you want and close them lower. Maybe 130.
 
Heard Steve Jobs wasn't very nice either. One wouldn't have wanted to be caught in the same elevator as he / she could have been fired by the time the ride ended.
Neither is/was someone I would want to call a friend, but I do have plenty of second-hand Steve Jobs experience from way back. His actions were predictable, even if they were hurtful. He might have a vision, and his expectation was that people would support that vision, and he wanted smart people doing that work. I hear (third hand) that Elon is similar, but with less clarity of vision in the broad context.

Personally I can mentally justify the firing of the advertising team; Tesla needs that broader vision for message beyond the advertisements they produce. My guess is that vision is towards automation and the benefits that it will provide their customers... but that is a tough thing to explain without getting into legal/regulatory trouble. (I think Chevy's pickup automation ad is likely overstepping in that context.)
 
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Whoa, what a lousy three trading days. The 5x 100 wide SMCI spread +p730/-p830 for Friday practically cost me the full amount to cover. The position didn't look so bad far OTM when I opened it. It was a true black swan. I may need to stop trading for a while. Have this last SMCI position open that I hope will get a lift from NVDA. Thereafter, stepping to side for a while. Covering 50k for a 3 day blind side is nauseating. I'm okay though... :)
 
i suspect this is just DCB

smart money pumped and got their fib: those who were caught flat-footed last fri can now exit with profit

View attachment 1040788

they may rug pull if 50sma doesn't hold... the last hr of the day is usually smart money prepping for next day

View attachment 1040791

View attachment 1040797

Our buddy who ask for NVDA 800 got his wish.

Now is it up to the M7 earning to dictate the next moves. TSLA up 1st.....now that's scary....
 
advise requested:
I have 4000 shares, an on Friday 4/19 I sold 40x (does x mean "contracts" in this forum?) $143 covered call for $9.2, hoping that at least if the SP goes to $139 I am still break even, or above $143 and it is still equivalent to selling at $152.
However, during the weekend the $2000/14000 RMB price cut news is considered negative, and today SP closed at $142.
That is way more fast than I expected. And even in this forum people are saying $130 is coming, $120 is coming.

Should I stick to my original plan or just close CC and sell everything?
 
I know that it doesn't emotionally feel the same as a CSP (cash secured put), but a buy-write is identical to a CSP. The only difference due to margin is if you're using margin to buy the shares in the buy-write. If you have 100% of the cash to back a put, or 100% of the cash to buy the shares, then the buy-write and the CSP are identical in how they perform.

The difference is in the emotions around the position (and tax handling in the US, where wash sale rules can pop up a lot easier with buy-writes than with CSP).

If you like the buy-shares-700 / sell 695 covering call, then you also like selling the 695 CSP, from a risk/reward perspective.


What I found was that emotionally I LOVE the buy-write. I particularly love buying the shares at a price I'm happy to buy at, and then selling an ITM call to go with them. I also really like that holding that call down to the end or even letting it expire is emotionally trivial to do. At all prices above 695 (in this example) the position earns max profit of 73-5 - $68 (buy shares 700, sell 695 call for 73, sell shares for 695 = net 68).

At all prices below 695 the position earns the whole premium (73) and leaves you with shares purchased for $700 (and the corresponding unrealized loss, that is $5 higher due to the strike starting $5 below the share purchase price).


Anyway - I personally love buy-writes, and I think its for the identical reason you like them so much. However I think its important to be clear eyed about them having the identical risk/reward profile as selling a cash secured put. If one is a bad position, so is the other.

In particular if you think that the risk/reward for a 695 CSP (again using this example) is bad, but the risk reward for the buy-write as described here is good, then I encourage you to revisit your understanding of the position. There are no margin implications that aren't equally inherent in the other version of this position. What does the position look like at the end for various stock prices. What does it look like along the way - stuff like that. It really is the same thing.

With the CC:
Shares below 695 at expiration - you have 100 shares per contract with that you bought for 700 while fully earning the $73 call credit. Effective share purchase price is 700-73 but it looks like buy 700, unrealized loss of 700-share price on those shares, and $73 earned credit.

Or shares above 695 at expiration - you realize the max gain of shares purchased at 700, sold at 695, and a realized credit of $73 for a net realized profit of $68.


With the 695 CSP, opening credit really really close to 68.65. Shares above 695 at expiration, max gain of 68.65.

Shares below 695 at expiration, you have 100 shares with a purchase price of 695-68 = 627. You HAVE been able to postpone when the credit from the put will turn into a taxable gain as the assignment on the put contract modifies the purchase price of the shares rather than turning into a realized gain or loss.

The two kinds of positions in this particular regard - that's in the context of US tax handling. I assume Canada is similar, but I am not only not a tax pro, I'm also not a Canadian OR a Canadian Tax pro. My opinion needs some upgrading to achieve worthless :)



As a CSP that 695 put will have been priced really, really close to $68.65 (because if it wasn't the arbitrageurs would have been doing buy-writes or some other construct in order to collect that mispriced option and bring it back to the correct relationship).
thanks

this is too good to be true, 10% ROIC... what i don't understand is why MM is practically begging me to take 68 coz this is the easiest money i've ever made

OI is 700, gamma is 700, maxpain is 800

the probability of close=700 is very high yet they sell me cc 695 for 73

even if they dump, they gave me breakeven too low at 627

i'm gonna investigate some more: i must be missing something, there must be a catch

or perhaps i'm just a real newbie to this selling ATM CC
 
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thanks

this is too good to be true, 10% ROIC... what i don't understand is why MM is practically begging me to take 68 coz this is the easiest money i've ever made

OI is 700, gamma is 700, maxpain is 800

the probability of close=700 is very high yet they sell me cc 695 for 73

even if they dump, they gave me breakeven too low at 627

i'm gonna investigate some more: i must be missing something, there must be a catch

or perhaps i'm just a real newbie to this selling ATM CC
the catch is this is a stock that routinely goes up / down 150-200 a day. keep at it long enough and one day you will realize its premiums are exactly as they should be. Whats there to prevent another 20% down day where $73 will only cover half the loss on the shares? it has happened twice in the last 2 months.
 
I almost pulled the trigger on a protective spread. Was thinking about May 3rd -130/+140 for $3.5. Might still do it tomorrow on a bounce. But how is the apocalypse not priced in at this point?!?

(We are very oversold on 1hr and 2hr RSI. Also below BB for 6 days, which on a glance of the chart as far back as 2019 has never happened before.)
I don't think TSLA is anywhere as low as it should be right now. Story was always based on high growth and fat margins, both of which have evaporated and Musk just pulled the rug on the one up-coming catalyst that everyone was pinning their hopes on

 
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