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Seriously, why does Elon feel the need to lie about even short-term fsd beta timelines.

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If you think the head of AI leaving isn't going to cause massive attrition in the org over the next 6-18 months, you have no idea how tech orgs work.

First phase people leave because the pressure trickles down to them in his absence / take on responsibilities they don't want / share his same frustrations. Then they will find the new boss who will want to bring in his goombas, so there will be another wave of forced or willing attrition to make way for them.

At this point they will then have new leadership which will want to embark on a new strategy, involving a rewrite of some amount of the software stack.

Often the new hire is a bad hire and they have to go through the above cycle twice.
So many assumptions but the truth is nobody knows. Highly doubt a company of this scale only had One capable person. For all we know (assuming again) he may have been the issue.