Ah! But Elon lied time after time claiming release of a fully working FSD product was imminent, and because release was happening soon Tesla was raising the price. So, if you wanted it for the lowest price, you needed to order it soon before the price increase. They've done this multiple times. Except in March 2019 when they raised and lowered the price wildly within weeks.
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Seriously, why does Elon feel the need to lie about even short-term fsd beta timelines.
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Ah! But Elon lied time after time claiming release of a fully working FSD product was imminent, and because release was happening soon Tesla was raising the price. So, if you wanted it for the lowest price, you needed to order it soon before the price increase. They've done this multiple times. Except in March 2019 when they raised and lowered the price wildly within weeks.
I want to know the statistics on Elon's Twitter comments. The way some people talk in these threads, EVERYONE has Twitter and follows Elon, and made their purchasing decision based on Elon's tweets. I've never had Twitter, had no idea Elon was on Twitter, and never saw any of his comments before buying my Tesla. It wasn't until I joined TMC that I saw the debate taking place. I'd be curious if it's just a few percentage points of people who made their FSD purchase decision based on Elon's comments alone. Or is it a much higher number? If it's only a few percentage points, then why are these threads continuing with various people's hair on fire?
Raising the price to $3000 then setting it back to $2000 in March of 2019 (as well as all the "leaks" of hardware and capability information leading up to autonomy day) worked on me!
It is interesting that the title of the invoice for my FSD purchase was changed at some point to "Full Self-Driving Capability" and that the actual invoice is no longer retrievable from the Tesla website. Tell me that is not about trying to rewrite some historical facts here.
It is interesting that the title of the invoice for my FSD purchase was changed at some point to "Full Self-Driving Capability" and that the actual invoice is no longer retrievable from the Tesla website. Tell me that is not about trying to rewrite some historical facts here.
Are you suggesting that you purchased FSD capability with your car back in 2018 or 2019 with only "Coming Soon" or "Coming by the End of This Year" on the website as information about what FSD was going to be and when it would be delivered? I mean, if you take out Elon's tweets and other public comments, there's really not anything left to go on. Talking about blind faith!
I did. I saw the features in the FSD package, read the materials on the site about them, and decided they were worth the money for me. The "coming soon" part for city streets was not something I put value on, and considered it a "bonus". I came from a Chevy Bolt (first gen) that had no ADAS at all (aside from "dumb" cruise control), so all the FSD features (AP, NoA, Autopark and Summon, etc) were amazing. I have a very tight garage, so I use the autopark and summon multiple times a day to park and retrieve the car. I use(d) AP and NoA all the time on freeways, and now I use FSD Beta on city streets.
I purchased my car in early 2021, so the site said "Coming Soon".
I'm also, apparently, one of the rare Tesla's that actually works pretty well. I had phantom braking pretty bad in the beginning (one of the last Model Y's with radar), especially with bridges and big freeway signs. But it got better with updates. Once I was invited into FSD Beta and radar was disabled for vision-only, my PBs were significantly reduced. And now, on 10.12.2, I still get PBs, just minor ones on occasion, and many of my trips (like my 70 mile trip yesterday down to San Diego) have no issues at all on AP. I also had a 7 mile FSD Beta drive last night that was flawless for me. Smooth turns, correct lane selection, and no issues with high-beams. To be fair, where I live there is a lot of traffic, so high-beams aren't much of a problem since it keeps low-beams on for 98% of the drive. I also don't seem to suffer the night-time camera problem - my MY can see my face just fine at night. Again, to be fair I'm in a well-lit suburb of a major Southern California area, so I don't have issues of extreme dark, unlit streets.
Silicon Desert
Well-Known Member
Yea, that is what I was thinking. The first response by some people is that EM is lying or being intentionally deceptive. That could be the case, yet could also be as you say that he's not good with timeline predictions. I've do consulting out there and have seen that to be the case on many occasions. Too optimistic. I note the OP wants folks to "chill" out, but perhaps it is the OP that needs to chill. Several of you folks (me included) don't think lack of regular updates are a serious issue. It might have been implied that updates will happen at time to time, but it isn't a guaranteed part of a purchase.
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Silicon Desert
Well-Known Member
You got me curious, so I went to look at my original invoice back in January 2017 when I downloaded it to my computer, and it reads "Full Self-Driving Capability" back then. My original invoice is still in my online account, so I am confused by your post. Is it correct for me to guess that you bought your car before 2017 and the wording changed?
This is another difference that we often lose in the conversation: back in July of 2018 and into early 2019, there was a package called Enhanced Autopilot ("EAP") that contained all the currently available "autonomous" features of Tesla Autopilot, like TACC, autosteer, auto park, auto lane-change, and summon, as well as (in October of 2018) Navigate on Autopilot. Like many, I opted to purchase those features with my car.
At the same time, "Full Self-Driving Option/Capability" was a separate capability that promised "full autonomous door-to-door driving" and was "Coming Soon." It wasn't called Autosteer on City Streets and there wasn't really many details of what "full autonomous door-to-door driving" meant outside of Elon's public comments/tweets and all the speculative articles written around them. I don't think the take rate at that point was very good for "Full Self-Driving Capability" and like most, I opted not to pay for future speculative capabilities.
In February of 2019 in an ARK Invest interview, Elon stated that Tesla's Full Self Driving capability would be "feature complete" by the end of 2019. He clarified: "[m]eaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention. This year. I would say I am of certain of that, that is not a question mark." Sometime after that, Tesla's order page for "Full Self-Driving Capability" was changed to "Coming later this year." Then, as 2019 autonomy day approached, it became apparent that the cars would need additional hardware to get FSD, and that only current FSD owners (and new car purchasers) would be able to get the hardware upgrades to support it (due to high demand and limited supply). Tesla then started monkeying with the price and Elon made several tweets/comments about how you would pay dearly for it later if you didn't buy it now. So a lot of current owners went ahead an forked out the additional money for the FSD package, since they would be available by the end of the year, in order to not pay the looming price increase promised by Elon.
Of course, during Autonomy Day 2019 (I would say the most outlandish and irresponsible of all of Elon/Tesla's promises around FSD capabilities and delivery dates), Elon doubled down on "Full level 5 autonomy by end of 2019" and estimated that by the middle of 2020, Tesla’s autonomous system will have improved to the point where drivers will not have to pay attention to the road. He also stated that "[w]e will have more than one million robotaxis on the road... A year from now, we’ll have over a million cars with full self-driving, software... everything... These cars will be Level 5 autonomy with no geofence, which is a fancy way of saying they will be capable of driving themselves anywhere on the planet, under all possible conditions, with no limitations." So after April 2019, I think any reasonable person would certainly understand why someone would say that they "relied" upon Elon's tweets and public comments in making their purchase decision for FSD.
Now, of course by early 2021, it was abundantly clear that neither Elon nor anyone at Tesla had any idea when Autosteer on City Streets (I will call it "FSD") would be available, despite Elon's continued prognostications on release dates, and I would go further to say that Elon didn't (and doesn't today) really have any idea what the actual capabilities of any "final" FSD product will look like. Surely, like any clear-minded engineer, he has long moved past the idea that any current Tesla vehicle will be driving around without a driver and operating as a "robotaxi," but exactly what "feature-complete" means for FSD and when it will be available to purchasers remains the subject of complete speculation. Basically, it will be done when Elon says it's done and it will contain the features/capabilities that it contains at that time. Does that mean L3? L4? Who knows? Certainly not Elon Musk.
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I purchased FSD in March of 2019 (car in July of 2018). I thought my invoice originally said "Full Self-Driving Package," but while the ordering page is not in the wayback machine and my invoice for the FSD purchase does not load, I can see articles online referring to "Full Self-Driving Capability" as far back as April of 2018, so I guess I was wrong.
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On that, I suspect Tesla is having manufacturing difficulties with their own 'dry process' (bought from Maxwell), and have now committed (late) to buy 4680 size batteries from Panasonic and Samsung, presumably using their own conventional production lines with wet solvent, adding the tabless end.
I guess another question would be how much Elon participates in the FSD program at Tesla. Perhaps he gives feedback and tests Alpha versions, but it may be that he's just a cheerleader and the FSD program team is handling things on their own. We don't know. My guess is that it's somewhere in the middle - he has involvement, but doesn't micro-manage the code and the team handles most of the day-to-day program changes.
I appreciate your position, and I actually sympathize with your situation and others in the same predicament. I also appreciate your well-thought-out comment above. I always attempt to approach problems with rational and logical troubleshooting and solutions. I was taught critical thinking during my upbringing, which helps me diagnose and research subjects and problems.
I hope you take this as intended, which is coming from a place of wanting to help. It seems several people on TMC are very upset with Elon's comments about capabilities and timetables that were totally incorrect - either blatant lies, exaggerations, or overly optimistic "wishful thinking". In any case, the result is people with vehicles that do not live up to the expectations that were made to them. In these cases, you do not have any way to change the predicament you are in. Since there is no way to fix the problem (such as faulty hardware, a failed software update, setting adjustments, or even behavioral modification), you're left with three (3) rational solutions:
1. Accept your situation. Try to be happy with what you have and let go of the negative emotions towards the problem.
2. Fight your situation. Since you cannot force the company to fix the problem you have, you can attempt to bring light to it via media attention (give your local or even national media outlet your predicament in hopes that will affect future change). Or seek legal counsel to perhaps compensate you for your situation. Understand that these solutions will not fix the underlying problem but may be cathartic for some time.
3. Extricate yourself from the situation. In this case, sell your vehicle and purchase one from another manufacturer that meets your needs and will make you happy.
Or one could simply come to this forum designed to allow one to express their opinions on Tesla's AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD and express their opinions on Tesla's AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD, which IMO includes Tesla's and Elon's comments and predictions on what it is and what it will be.
Face it. We bought the cars from the equivalent of trump. Double down on every lie. The guy is a car salesman, while the engineers do the heavy lifting. No way FSD will ever be functional in the manner suggested. Just told by the service center guy that for my car to drive at the correct speed limit, I need to contact every township that I drive through to update the speed limits. This will never happen. It would take many many millions of dollars to contact nearly every township in the US. Without this, the car will be at level 5 driving at 25 mph everywhere. That summon from coast to coast will take 3 months….
You are forgetting that Tweets end up in articles in dozens of blogs, forums, news sites, etc. One can actually NEVER go to twitter itself..and still digest tweeted statements.
jakimo
Member
"We'll be landing on Mars in a few minutes!"
One of these days, we may hear Elon saying..
One of these days, we may hear Elon saying..
We can probably put this thread to bed now. Karpathy is out along with several others, another complete rewrite is almost certainly looming on the horizon, and FSD isn't going to improve in any way whatsoever for a very, VERY long time. It's much more likely that a class action lawsuit is filed and everyone gets a small bit of their payment back.
DanCar
Active Member
I wonder who is the bigger chutzpah. The one offering the software or the one buying it.
If you think the head of AI leaving isn't going to cause massive attrition in the org over the next 6-18 months, you have no idea how tech orgs work.
First phase people leave because the pressure trickles down to them in his absence / take on responsibilities they don't want / share his same frustrations. Then they will find the new boss who will want to bring in his goombas, so there will be another wave of forced or willing attrition to make way for them.
At this point they will then have new leadership which will want to embark on a new strategy, involving a rewrite of some amount of the software stack.
Often the new hire is a bad hire and they have to go through the above cycle twice.
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