Disclaimer: This post is highly speculative, and I know it.
I have a hypothesis: Elon Musk and Tesla management have planned for a short squeeze to happen, and have been executing on that plan lately.
Isn't this an obvious fact? Not really, because if true it means that this spring, they care not just about long term value creation but also about creating a spike in the share price that will engender the short squeeze.
And if true, what is the implication? My hypothesis is that the earnings call on Wednesday is T=0, the day when the squeeze is intended to begin.
My reasoning:
Does Elon Musk seem like a man who sees a problem, and then does nothing about it? We are talking about the man who decided single-handedly to do something about the fact that humanity has not gone to Mars yet. And, by the way, at the same time accelerate the advent of electric road transportation globally. This is clearly a person who does something about stuff that bothers him.
Next: Has Elon Musk been bothered about the shorting of the Tesla stock? Definitely! Back in September, he was quite vocal about this on national TV. In fact, he was even already promising a solution to the problem (the now-famous "tsunami of hurt"). More recently, he tweeted his glee at the losses of TSLA shorts ("stormy weather over at Shortville"). Clearly this is something that has bothered him.
SO, I find it highly unlikely that he has not given quite a bit of thought to how to get the shorts out of his face. The obvious solution is a short squeeze to take them out. This would actually be good for the company long term, because the absence of the shorts would reduce effective supply of shares to those who want to invest, and thereby probably put the stock on a permanently higher level (assuming all the shorts don't pile in again after a squeeze, which seems like a reasonable assumption). A higher long term stock price means that any financing TSLA would need, for instance for GenIII R&D and factory ramp-up, would dilute existing shareholders less.
So, fast forward to the end of Q1 and management pulls the trigger on Operation Tsunami. Why? Because they have extremely good news. CapitalistOppressor has mused in another thread about how margins (excl. green credits) could stay far from 25% in a quarter with streamlined production. Maybe they didn't. Maybe the quarter was very profitable even before the credits, and the credits made almost ridiculously good. So, how to play this: One, big announcement may not be enough. Rather, there needs to be a crescendo of good news ending with the Big Bang. Thus the immediate release of the news that Q1 is profitable. Once done, everyone thought that was the Q1 cat let out of the bag. In fact, it was only the tip of the iceberg.
Next, the launch of the "5-part trilogy". Not uniformly successful, but certainly the kind of thing you would do to create short-term momentum in the stock. The stock is now up by >50% since the start of Operation Tsunami.
Then, the race to finalize orders in Europe ahead of the Q1 earnings announcement. Loading all chambers of the "Q1 good news big bertha".
Who knows what other goodies may be in store for Wednesday:
I have nothing more to back this up than the logic above, and I won't say I'm 100% convinced. But what if it is true? I sure am bracing for a wild ride next Thursday...
I have a hypothesis: Elon Musk and Tesla management have planned for a short squeeze to happen, and have been executing on that plan lately.
Isn't this an obvious fact? Not really, because if true it means that this spring, they care not just about long term value creation but also about creating a spike in the share price that will engender the short squeeze.
And if true, what is the implication? My hypothesis is that the earnings call on Wednesday is T=0, the day when the squeeze is intended to begin.
My reasoning:
Does Elon Musk seem like a man who sees a problem, and then does nothing about it? We are talking about the man who decided single-handedly to do something about the fact that humanity has not gone to Mars yet. And, by the way, at the same time accelerate the advent of electric road transportation globally. This is clearly a person who does something about stuff that bothers him.
Next: Has Elon Musk been bothered about the shorting of the Tesla stock? Definitely! Back in September, he was quite vocal about this on national TV. In fact, he was even already promising a solution to the problem (the now-famous "tsunami of hurt"). More recently, he tweeted his glee at the losses of TSLA shorts ("stormy weather over at Shortville"). Clearly this is something that has bothered him.
SO, I find it highly unlikely that he has not given quite a bit of thought to how to get the shorts out of his face. The obvious solution is a short squeeze to take them out. This would actually be good for the company long term, because the absence of the shorts would reduce effective supply of shares to those who want to invest, and thereby probably put the stock on a permanently higher level (assuming all the shorts don't pile in again after a squeeze, which seems like a reasonable assumption). A higher long term stock price means that any financing TSLA would need, for instance for GenIII R&D and factory ramp-up, would dilute existing shareholders less.
So, fast forward to the end of Q1 and management pulls the trigger on Operation Tsunami. Why? Because they have extremely good news. CapitalistOppressor has mused in another thread about how margins (excl. green credits) could stay far from 25% in a quarter with streamlined production. Maybe they didn't. Maybe the quarter was very profitable even before the credits, and the credits made almost ridiculously good. So, how to play this: One, big announcement may not be enough. Rather, there needs to be a crescendo of good news ending with the Big Bang. Thus the immediate release of the news that Q1 is profitable. Once done, everyone thought that was the Q1 cat let out of the bag. In fact, it was only the tip of the iceberg.
Next, the launch of the "5-part trilogy". Not uniformly successful, but certainly the kind of thing you would do to create short-term momentum in the stock. The stock is now up by >50% since the start of Operation Tsunami.
Then, the race to finalize orders in Europe ahead of the Q1 earnings announcement. Loading all chambers of the "Q1 good news big bertha".
Who knows what other goodies may be in store for Wednesday:
- EPS way above even luvb2b's estimates?
- Supercharger announcement?
- >5000 cars sold Q1?
- Production rate >600 cars/week?
- 5th announcement? (or saving this for a few days after earnings, for the double-tap?)
- Model X news?
- GenIII news?
I have nothing more to back this up than the logic above, and I won't say I'm 100% convinced. But what if it is true? I sure am bracing for a wild ride next Thursday...