Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[justthateasy]

$170 is next target... It's gonna hurt

Based on what? Trends and potential catalysts don't support a drop to 170.

Wow... really undecided about what to do here. Is anyone considering going short by buying puts or selling calls? If this is close to the top of the momentum stocks rallies, then there might be lots of money to be made on the way down (or at least protecting yourself).

Same here. I should have liquidated earlier today but didn't get to the computer early enough. Then again, big one-day drops like this are usually followed by some recovery on the next trading day while the support line of this channel is holding up for now. Even if TSLA continues to sink any further, I don't think we'll see anything below 200. Then again, I could very well be wrong.

 

[Papafox]

Remember when Tesla stock was in the 120s and the forum started receiving these posts about the stock heading to 80 or 90? I think we're seeing those types of posts once again. Unless someone gives a solid reason I consider such warnings as just about as shaky as the 80s or 90s we were warned about when Tesla was in the 120s.

I've seen some pretty good support around 205 or so in the last couple of weeks, and the golden number is 202. Methinks that unless there's some bad news out there we'll weather this storm before long.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Remember when Tesla stock was in the 120s and the forum started receiving these posts about the stock heading to 80 or 90? I think we're seeing those types of posts once again. Unless someone gives a solid reason I consider such warnings as just about as shaky as the 80s or 90s we were warned about when Tesla was in the 120s.

I've seen some pretty good resistance around 205 or so in the last couple of weeks, and the golden number is 202. Methinks that unless there's some bad news out there we'll weather this storm before long.

I could not agree more. Took my screen name as others were shouting the sky was falling over trivial issues and the stock behaving as it always does, a very volatile instrument. I don't know why it went up mid week, question zack 1 rating from 2 or maybe Norway numbers (although those were known to be good a week before). The issues from last week 2500 dollar california credit, ZEV credit decrease and Panasonic waiver are noise. None of these issues take away from the company. The 2500 dollar credit to those piling on over 40K of options seems moot. It will not affect California buys. ZEV credits a small part of revenue now. We don't know what behind the scenes discussions are underway I sincerely doubt Panasonic answer was given to tesla via a press release. I also discount articles that quote other auto makers and battery makers about the folly of tesla making their own batteries. Do you think they are commenting out of concern to protect their own profits or teslas?

We we have always seen the stock price drop pre earnings without news. The higher the price the larger similar percent drops are. The stock moves on analysts opinions but the company doesn't. There are too many positives coming out now model x production car, pricing, starting to take orders, china (which I firmly believe the 1000 car priming the pipeline is about), serious ramp up 2 nd half (remember buying equipment to make line more efficient line), unveil of gen 3 prototype.

Look at latest sec filing about the offering. I found it interesting that previous offering prevented dilution of stock until price over 180 ( going on memory) and now protected against dilution until stock price over more than 500.

My point, chickenlittle is not shouting the sky is falling

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One last point. Panasonic not exactly a company that can claim to know successful ventures. Look at where they were 25 years ago and now. They missed more than just the boat in that time. Maybe they need to take more risk.

 

[JRP3]

Interesting piece about the "noise" surrounding TSLA: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2127243-tesla-driven-by-noise-but-high-quality-noise

 

[maoing]

china (which I firmly believe the 1000 car priming the pipeline is about

I have different opinion here. Although Elon hinted in Q4 ER that ~1000 car might be in the pipe at end of the Q1, I assume he was talking about pipes for both Europe and China. Europe side, with latest frantic delivery in Norway and other countries (compared March to Jan/Feb), I doubt there are still many cars in the pipe to Europe. Most likely TM will start shipping more cars to Europe from April/May and deliver in June. China side, I was a little bit disappointed that the first delivery delayed to end of April (used to be hinted end of March). Assume 1 month shipping time across pacific ocean, so the China shipment actually started from 2nd half of March, so I don't count too many cars in the pipe to China at this point. I feel TM would intentionally slow down the China shipment before Super Charger station and new service center available in China. Otherwise customer complaints would "kill" the good initial momemtum.

Given not too many, probably ~500 compared to ~1000 hinted, in the pipe and TM for sure still ramping up production rate in the background. What might be the actual delivery number in Q1? We've got quite close number from European countries, the US remains wild card. Maybe it'll be a big surprise!

 

[TSLAopt]

Interesting piece about the "noise" surrounding TSLA: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2127243-tesla-driven-by-noise-but-high-quality-noise

Good article.

this was also a great find I just saw Jackl1956 post in the news section
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): China Plans Back On Track With New GM

i think ink this little bit of news could trigger a decent price increase Monday, we shall see

 

[maoing]

Good article.

this was also a great find I just saw Jackl1956 post in the news section
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): China Plans Back On Track With New GM

i think ink this little bit of news could trigger a decent price increase Monday, we shall see

Nice, Tesla has more commonality with Apple than Bently. it was my prediction back to 03/31 http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-Market-Timing?p=620009&viewfull=1#post620009

 

[TSLAopt]

Nice, Tesla has more commonality with Apple than Bently. it was my prediction back to 03/31 http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...-Market-Timing?p=620009&viewfull=1#post620009

Yes, great prediction maoing!

 

[Causalien]

You guys miss my pumping?
A W pattern is formed and nobody got excited. "I am dissapoint."

 

[Auzie]

You guys miss my pumping?
A W pattern is formed and nobody got excited. "I am dissapoint."

Pardon my ignorance, but what is a W pattern?

 

[Cankooo1]

Pardon my ignorance, but what is a W pattern?

W pattern refers to Double bottom pattern.

 

[Cankooo1]

Technically speaking:
I do see forming of uptrend channel with multiple buy signals on the Tesla chart:

-Tops and bottoms are fitting perfectly in parallel lines of the new channel.

-Note that the previous downtrend channel was broken with high volume.
-Parabolic SAR are indicating beginning of uptrend.
-Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) crossover signal is indication of reversing the trend.
-MACD histogram is above the 0 line and starting to rise
-Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates extreme level of oversold condition reaching 23

I am looking for confirmation from Vortix indicator. As current values are -V=1,171 and +V=0,864 in case of price rising tomorrow this indicator will produce one more conformational signal crossing the lines above 1.00 level. If it occurs I will double my positions in Tesla.

This could be the bottom of the new trading channel which TSLA is seeking. I think only if the market is plummeting at Monday this could break the channel as we are just at the bottom.

 

[Julian Cox]

Good article.

this was also a great find I just saw Jackl1956 post in the news section
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): China Plans Back On Track With New GM

i think ink this little bit of news could trigger a decent price increase Monday, we shall see

Veronica Wu was pretty much running the show anyway.

I expect Chang left because he was being outshone by Ms Wu.

(She was the one collecting recent awards for Tesla in China).

 

[Auzie]

Technically speaking:
I do see forming of uptrend channel with multiple buy signals on the Tesla chart:

-Tops and bottoms are fitting perfectly in parallel lines of the new channel.


-Note that the previous downtrend channel was broken with high volume.
-Parabolic SAR are indicating beginning of uptrend.
-Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) crossover signal is indication of reversing the trend.
-MACD histogram is above the 0 line and starting to rise
-Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates extreme level of oversold condition reaching 23

I am looking for confirmation from Vortix indicator. As current values are -V=1,171 and +V=0,864 in case of price rising tomorrow this indicator will produce one more conformational signal crossing the lines above 1.00 level. If it occurs I will double my positions in Tesla.

This could be the bottom of the new trading channel which TSLA is seeking. I think only if the market is plummeting at Monday this could break the channel as we are just at the bottom.

Thank you for that explanation.
My oh my that is some science that I would like to understand. I assume that technical analysis is just capturing and reflecting our collective herd behaviour patterns so there must be something to it.

 

[Johan]

Thank you for that explanation.
My oh my that is some science that I would like to understand. I assume that technical analysis is just capturing and reflecting our collective herd behaviour patterns so there must be something to it.

Another way of looking at it: if enough people believe in it and act upon the different techincal signals, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts. "Oh look it's a double cowboy pattern with a strong rise in PMS coupled with a saucer-and-plate formation at the 45-day trend line! The price is going up - let's buy stock". And if enough people are seeing this they buy stock and voila - price goes up.

 

[Auzie]

My expectation is that the price will go up. Not much science behind, just the fact that we had the unprovoked jump to 230 just before this latest drop, that is suggesting some pent up demand. Of course it could go down as well if some events push it down.

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I expect Chang left because he was being outshone by Ms Wu.

My hope for her is to become Tesla's brightest star.

 

[Curt Renz]

Another way of looking at it: if enough people believe in it and act upon the different techincal signals, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts. "Oh look it's a double cowboy pattern with a strong rise in PMS coupled with a saucer-and-plate formation at the 45-day trend line! The price is going up - let's buy stock". And if enough people are seeing this they buy stock and voila - price goes up.

Not only people, but the algo-bot computers are programmed to believe in it. They are more dogmatic about it and react even more frantically as a herd than people do. That could explain the dumping of momentum stocks during the morning on Friday. If the double bottom appears to be holding on Monday, then the algo-bots could charge in unison to the upside. BTW, I'm the author of "The Investor's Guide to Technical Analysis" published by McGraw-Hill.

 

[Auzie]

Not only people, but the algo-bot computers are programmed to believe in it. They are more dogmatic about it and react even more frantically as a herd than people do. That could explain the dumping of momentum stocks during the morning on Friday. If the double bottom appears to be holding on Monday, then the algo-bots could charge in unison to the upside. BTW, I'm the author of "The Investor's Guide to Technical Analysis" published by McGraw-Hill.

Thank you for that Curt, I always learn something from you. I would assume that bots are more predictable than people and if they influence price movements to a degree, then market would have to be predictable to a certain degree. I am just not sure of what that degree is, how much influence can be assigned to bots and how much to less predictable people. That is very simplified thinking applied to a complex dynamic and may not be applicable as I am not that familiar with the inner workings of the markets.

 

[Curt Renz]

Thank you for that Curt, I always learn something from you. I would assume that bots are more predictable than people and if they influence price movements to a degree, then market would have to be predictable to a certain degree. I am just not sure of what that degree is, how much influence can be assigned to bots and how much to less predictable people. That is very simplified thinking applied to a complex dynamic and may not be applicable as I am not that familiar with the inner workings of the markets.

You're welcome, Auzie. I should note that technical analysis is just one of my tools. It's not infallible. A Chicago based McGraw-Hill editor liked the way I explained technical analysis for laymen watching my TV show, and commissioned me to write a primer on the subject. I do not ignore fundamental analysis, but do not consider that to be the holy grail that many professionals do. Anecdotal evidence is even more important to me. If one lives long enough, certain understandings become part of one's intuition. Fourteen months ago I bought my TSLA shares due to research into Musk and his plan to disrupt major industries, while the share price was being held down by FUD spread by predictable sources. I was inspired to perform that research by a tip from someone I used to interview who is a technical analyst. He liked the chart. BTW, I really appreciated getting away from the Vietnam War for a week in 1969 to enjoy R&R in Sydney.

 

[Twiddler]

Not only people, but the algo-bot computers are programmed to believe in it. They are more dogmatic about it and react even more frantically as a herd than people do. That could explain the dumping of momentum stocks during the morning on Friday. If the double bottom appears to be holding on Monday, then the algo-bots could charge in unison to the upside. BTW, I'm the author of "The Investor's Guide to Technical Analysis" published by McGraw-Hill.

Just finished reading it last week - excellent resource for those of us doing this as a past time. Thanks, Curt!