InTheShadows
Active Member
The way I see it is Tesla has a major issue in their hands. They need more factories online today.
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Worth being a bit careful with AAPL
My research indicates that FB / AAPL and TSLA can very often feature in the same portfolio. TSLA bears are flat wrong that TSLA is an automotive stock simply because it is held by tech investors, not auto sector investors - those guys are basically the shorts that are wedded to the overvaluation myth based on auto sector stock metrics like price per car etc. By the same token TSLA as a tech stock participates in the tides of tech stocks.
Great news for AAPL can deliver a sell-off from TSLA to fund AAPL stock as a matter of portfolio weighting, equally poor performance from AAPL can fund TSLA. Inverse news driven movements on AAPL can overwhelm the positive effects of co-participation of AAPL and TSLA in QQQ or the NASDAQ in general.
As for TSLA, pretty sure that the shorts have hung themselves with Gigafactory skepticism and confusing deliveries with demand. Also pretty sure that the last minute deliveries to Norway were not included in Q1 guidance. I expect another very strong showing on Q1 earnings - just a bit wary of pace of Q1 spending - do believe the guys have gone shopping big times - super for 'reckless' growth maybe not so hot for profit numbers. Apart from that another blow-out on the cards. I think the news driven event for TSLA will be very significant on Q1 earnings, probably an early release from Panasonic supply constraint, clearly the possibility of some Model X news, and some killer activity going on in China. $250 with support this time, don't think will be an issue.
Just my few cents.
JC
Curious on why this hasn't been picked up and reported by US news??? They beat to death the meaningless drop in Elon's irrelevant yearly salary but nothing on preferential treatment by a Chinese government entity not for a CLASS of cars, but for a single manufacturer. The silence is deafening.
I agree. I believe the financials/balance sheet may just be a minor beat with increased expenses that the market will interpret passively/negatively. So, the key will be strong guidance/announcements. This is what hurt us with Q3 2013 as much as anything. TM waited for any strong guidance until Q4ER.
Thank you for your insight.
Your research findings ring true for me. I never considered investing in a car business, before Tesla appeared in NYT article. All my other holdings are tech companies, apart from some patriotic ASX holdings, which serve as diversification.
It's wrong perception. The preferential treatment is for imported EV, including Nissan Leaf, but I guess it's mainly targeted for Tesla and not even sure if Leaf is on sale in China.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Leaf goes on sale in September, but no price is given but 50,000 RMB ($8033) for their entry level ICE
Chinese Nissan Leaf goes on sale in September as Venucia e30
EarlyAdopter
Active Member
Hopefully more influential than they were 20 years ago when they previously cited concerns over restrictive state dealership laws harming consumers, limiting choice, and increasing costs. http://www.ftc.gov/sites/default/files/documents/advocacy_documents/ftc-staff-comment-hon.rick-mcconnell-concerning-indiana-s.b.396-prohibit-auto-brokering/v940009-auto-broker.pdf
Or 5 years ago when the DOJ Antitrust Division focused on the harms caused by bans on direct automotive sales:
http://www.justice.gov/atr/public/eag/246374.htm
I think it's fair to say that our federal Competition Warriors care a great deal about this, but so far only seem able to issue statements and write papers.
Originally Posted by Mitthrawnuruodo 
Market isn't reacting to this (it's been a whole hour after all). I would like to know how persuasive these 3 FTC officials, and the whole FTC is at influencing existing legislature as well as political sentiment.
Thanks to Curt Renz if indeed your contact triggered this response. The authors of the FTC report seem to be senior and the document seems well argued and absolutely spot on.
I think the real, best and most useful impact of this document will be as evidence for Tesla to hold up in legislative campaigning at the State level. In fact the document is pretty much addressed to that audience. It is powerful, authoritative, unequivocal and should assist quite a lot in Tesla's efforts to deal with State lawmakers.
It is not actually a good outcome in my opinion for the Feds to slap down dealer franchise laws universally, it is a MUCH better outcome for Big Auto to be trapped behind the bars of an outmoded sales model while Tesla negotiates exceptions State by State.
Musk is on record agreeing with that perspective "not interested in dismantling the franchise system, just not interested in participating" or words to that effect.
What I do think is worth slapping down universally by the FTC is the false and misleading promotion of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles to green-conscious consumers and green-leaning politicians. There needs to be a Federal ban on promoting Fracking and Steam Reforming of Natural Gas as green or emissions free when nothing could be further from the truth and no roadmap can lead from Fracking and Steam Reforming to a more economic source of clean Hydrogen - the opposite is true: All academic and PR demonstration modes of Hydrogen produced by anything but Fracking and Steam Reforming face the abundance of dirty Fracked Natural Gas feedstock for CO2 productive Steam Reforming as an unassailable competitor in any real-world setting. (EVs being the opposite - all roads ultimately lead to renewables, distributed solar and grid storage in particular). Solar can increasingly compete on price per kWh and is on track to overwhelm the cost of Natural Gas production on a global scale http://tinyurl.com/msjtfbx. The only scenario where that is not true is the one used to promote FCVs - when the renewable electricity produced is wasted on the unnecessary step of producing hydrogen.
FTC ought to have a look at this and cut it off at the knees at the level of unfair stifling of competition resulting from false advertising and price dumping of hydrogen and FCVs by the vested interests of Big Oil and Big Auto respectively. Nobody needs a new way to get fossil fuels to market - stripped of the 'hydrogen is green' ruse there is no market for an FCV assault on renewable and sustainable transportation and far less risk of Big Oil ripping off federal and state budgets aimed at combatting CO2 emissions for fossil-fuel reprocessing infrastructure.
BTW - $200 million for 100 fuelling station in California by CARB. That's $2 million each. Guys that is not the cost of a compressed hydrogen storage tank, that is the cost of a local SMR (Steam Methane Reformer) whose input is energy, Natural Gas and Water and whose output is H2 and CO2 plus some slippage of CH4 and possibly CO (carbon monoxide) - definitely copious CO2. EPA has classified CO2 as pollution and CARB is supposed to fund the cessation of local air pollution in California, not to facilitate it and DEFINITELY NOT to facilitate what ought to be illegal competition to emission-free transport by price-dumping a highly polluting fossil product to $0.00 in Tesla's back yard!
https://www.hyundaiusa.com/tucsonfuelcell/ (Hyundai Tucson FCV promoted in California with free fossil fuel derived hydrogen via CARB funded local SMR processing of Fracked Natural Gas - for heaven's sake !!!!!@@UW@£@!!~).
By bringing the SMR to the local filling station I believe this $200 Million has been obtained by fraud and needs to be reviewed, urgently before Tesla finds itself facing endless competition from free fossil fuel derived hydrogen and Big-Oil subsidised FCVs deceptively promoted as equally green as EVs. Curt!!
Market isn't reacting to this (it's been a whole hour after all). I would like to know how persuasive these 3 FTC officials, and the whole FTC is at influencing existing legislature as well as political sentiment.
Thanks to Curt Renz if indeed your contact triggered this response. The authors of the FTC report seem to be senior and the document seems well argued and absolutely spot on.
I think the real, best and most useful impact of this document will be as evidence for Tesla to hold up in legislative campaigning at the State level. In fact the document is pretty much addressed to that audience. It is powerful, authoritative, unequivocal and should assist quite a lot in Tesla's efforts to deal with State lawmakers.
It is not actually a good outcome in my opinion for the Feds to slap down dealer franchise laws universally, it is a MUCH better outcome for Big Auto to be trapped behind the bars of an outmoded sales model while Tesla negotiates exceptions State by State.
Musk is on record agreeing with that perspective "not interested in dismantling the franchise system, just not interested in participating" or words to that effect.
What I do think is worth slapping down universally by the FTC is the false and misleading promotion of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles to green-conscious consumers and green-leaning politicians. There needs to be a Federal ban on promoting Fracking and Steam Reforming of Natural Gas as green or emissions free when nothing could be further from the truth and no roadmap can lead from Fracking and Steam Reforming to a more economic source of clean Hydrogen - the opposite is true: All academic and PR demonstration modes of Hydrogen produced by anything but Fracking and Steam Reforming face the abundance of dirty Fracked Natural Gas feedstock for CO2 productive Steam Reforming as an unassailable competitor in any real-world setting. (EVs being the opposite - all roads ultimately lead to renewables, distributed solar and grid storage in particular). Solar can increasingly compete on price per kWh and is on track to overwhelm the cost of Natural Gas production on a global scale http://tinyurl.com/msjtfbx. The only scenario where that is not true is the one used to promote FCVs - when the renewable electricity produced is wasted on the unnecessary step of producing hydrogen.
FTC ought to have a look at this and cut it off at the knees at the level of unfair stifling of competition resulting from false advertising and price dumping of hydrogen and FCVs by the vested interests of Big Oil and Big Auto respectively. Nobody needs a new way to get fossil fuels to market - stripped of the 'hydrogen is green' ruse there is no market for an FCV assault on renewable and sustainable transportation and far less risk of Big Oil ripping off federal and state budgets aimed at combatting CO2 emissions for fossil-fuel reprocessing infrastructure.
BTW - $200 million for 100 fuelling station in California by CARB. That's $2 million each. Guys that is not the cost of a compressed hydrogen storage tank, that is the cost of a local SMR (Steam Methane Reformer) whose input is energy, Natural Gas and Water and whose output is H2 and CO2 plus some slippage of CH4 and possibly CO (carbon monoxide) - definitely copious CO2. EPA has classified CO2 as pollution and CARB is supposed to fund the cessation of local air pollution in California, not to facilitate it and DEFINITELY NOT to facilitate what ought to be illegal competition to emission-free transport by price-dumping a highly polluting fossil product to $0.00 in Tesla's back yard!
https://www.hyundaiusa.com/tucsonfuelcell/ (Hyundai Tucson FCV promoted in California with free fossil fuel derived hydrogen via CARB funded local SMR processing of Fracked Natural Gas - for heaven's sake !!!!!@@UW@£@!!~).
By bringing the SMR to the local filling station I believe this $200 Million has been obtained by fraud and needs to be reviewed, urgently before Tesla finds itself facing endless competition from free fossil fuel derived hydrogen and Big-Oil subsidised FCVs deceptively promoted as equally green as EVs. Curt!!
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More good news! According to this source, the Tesla suppliers in Taiwan stating actual production speed is 1000 Model S / week.
Tesla seeing short production capacity, say Taiwan makers
Tesla seeing short production capacity, say Taiwan makers
Foxconn? Please, Elon, not Foxconn.
Tesla seeing short production capacity, say Taiwan makers
"The Foxconn Group, which has member companies that are Tesla's component suppliers, is interested in forming an electric vehicle ecosystem mainly made up of Taiwan-based makers, the sources said. Foxconn Group president Terry Guo met with Tesla CEO Elon Musk in Beijing, northern China, recently. Foxconn is likely to recommend that Tesla sets up production lines at one or more of Foxconn's production bases in China, the sources indicated."
I'd rather Tesla Motors partner with Hitler than Foxconn; although they're cut from the same cloth.
Tesla seeing short production capacity, say Taiwan makers
"The Foxconn Group, which has member companies that are Tesla's component suppliers, is interested in forming an electric vehicle ecosystem mainly made up of Taiwan-based makers, the sources said. Foxconn Group president Terry Guo met with Tesla CEO Elon Musk in Beijing, northern China, recently. Foxconn is likely to recommend that Tesla sets up production lines at one or more of Foxconn's production bases in China, the sources indicated."
I'd rather Tesla Motors partner with Hitler than Foxconn; although they're cut from the same cloth.
This seem to be a bit too high of a production rate for now. According to previous reports the battery cell production ramp up was to happen in two steps: first launching idling line(s) at the Suminoe Plant in Osaka in the begining of this year, followed by launching additional mothballed line(s) at another Osaka plant in 2H 2014. The full capacity of the Suminoe plant is 300M cells/year, so it can cover about 900 cars/week assuming that 90% of ordered cars are 85kWh.
So this seem to be possible only if Panasonic launched mothballed lines not only at the Suminoe plant, but also at another plant in Osaka earlier than planned.
If this is true it is absolutely fantastic news , as TM will for sure have to up the yearly guidance to 40,000 - 42,000 cars
Looks like Elon back in Washington today for some secret SpaceX announcement. Could be a halo-effect catalyst on Tesla.
My guess will be he announces ".. I am the Iron Man." More likely Dragon 2.0 unveiling for F9R footage/land landing press release.
Elon Musk announces mysterious announcement, mysteriously
My guess will be he announces ".. I am the Iron Man." More likely Dragon 2.0 unveiling for F9R footage/land landing press release.
Elon Musk announces mysterious announcement, mysteriously
Chickenlittle
Banned
Chickenlittle
Banned
Especially with Russia supplying engines for the consortium. However he will take questions. May throw us a bone. News has not yet picked up on the 48 million subsidy in Shanghai yetthat would make sense. A lot less exciting than my imagination was calling for.
Musk and Gass Go Toe-to-Toe in QA | SpaceNews.com
Apr 22. Musk nails ULA to the wall in Q&A despite writing style that suggests off the cuff and written in a Chinese hotel room between meetings.
It is too soon for that to result in awarding Air Force contracts, although I would suspect that outcome is pretty inevitable.
Much more plausible, this is the end of the media blackout since successfully landing the F9 first stage (required by Musk's prior commitments to Tesla in China).
The vehicle might have broken up in heavy seas , but that is relatively unlikely IMO, suspect it would float beautifully engines down, pressurised tanks protecting hull integrity.
If it is what I think it is, it is magnificent timing. Musk has departed China leaving the Chinese beyond hung ho about the possibility of getting a piece of the action on Tesla Gen III manufacturing without Musk committing a cultural gaff of rubbing it in the face of Chinese officials that the Chinese space program has just fallen 5~10 years behind SpaceX in pure engineering capability that no amount of subsidies and low cost of labor can compete with. Instead Musk has saved his ammo to rub it in the face of the ULA in Washington DC - just perfect.
Honestly this is not business as usual, this is artwork.
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