Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Jack6591]

Futuris Seat Manufacturing

Tesla Model X - Futuris wins next-gen Tesla Model X seat contract | GoAuto

"Futuris already supplies seats for California-based Tesla’s latest car, the five-door hatchback Model S, from a facility shared with Tesla’s Californian production line."

So, they're manufacturing 150 seat sets at their new facility in Newark. Is the shared facility continuing to operate?

There is always this hand-wringing exercise over whether or not Tesla will make production. Yet quarter after quarter they slightly beat guidance. Count on it.

Tesla supplier Futuris Automotive inks big lease in Newark - San Francisco Business Times

"Futuris Automotive Inc., a supplier to Tesla Motors, just inked a deal with Prologis for 160,000 square feet of office and industrial space at 6601 Overlake Place in Newark."

Note to self: Do homework before posting "data points".

 

[chickensevil]

I studied these types of deals pretty extensively in college. Almost all of these types of deals are structured in such a way that the state has no recourse if the corporation fails to meet its employment / spending requirements. The state is simply out of luck. The fact that Elon mentioned the tax incentives would be performance based during the press conference caught my ear. That would be the correct way to structure a type of partnership like this, even though it is almost never done. I haven't seen the final legislation, so I don't know how effective the performance landmarks will be, or if they even included any meaningful measures. I hope they do. I don't want to read about this deal as a textbook example of corporate welfare taking advantage of a state/local government. I have a feeling Tesla will exceed it's employment and spending goals, as they seem to have a record of underestimating the requirements of meeting their goals. I like how it seems Nevada is not starving any essential programs or services to provide these incentives -- that is the right way to do this. Often local/state governments fall into the trap of gutting important and vital services to lure a large company, in the hope that the presence of the new corporation will make up for the redirection of funding. It almost never works out that way, and the state/local government, and it's citizens are left hurting. Seems to me that Tesla is on the right track with this partnership with Nevada.

This is exactly what was passed. Tesla must spend 3.5Bn before they get a single penny, and they must maintain a 50% employment of Nevadans, AND all the jobs must have an overall average wage of 22 an hour. That is what is in the law, Tesla has already made plans to exceed that. Both in spending and in wages.

And the law has clawbacks written into it that if at any point the company doesn't meet these requirements the state can require the company to pay back any benefits already received.

The only complaint that anyone has at this point is that the law doesn't have any specific requirement to how many jobs they must make/maintain. But keep in mind that this law while written for Tesla was done in such a way that other companies could come in and use it. So stimulating how many jobs will be needed would likely ruin peoples chances of using this for other purposes.

So yes, overall they have required a certain level of input by the company, and I think it was VERY smartly written.

 

[AudubonB]

I have been a vociferous objector to states' tax incentive deals. Few of them have fallen outside the (rarely mutually exclusive) categories of
(1) You Scratch My Back/I'll Scratch Yours (aka, payoff for influential state legislators in some way, shape or form);
or
(2) We'll Cheat the Other Guy and Pass the Savings on to You! (aka, Corp'n X gets the tax savings; Mom 'n Pop companies in the state shoulder the heavier tax burden);
or
(3) Glitz 'n Glamor Galore! (every last one of the film industry credits. There never has been one created that came close to benefiting the state involved).

Tesla's Nevada project completely paves over these pitfalls, and should become the model for all states for all future negotiations. If any of you ever desire involvement in your state's business incentive programs, you owe it to you, your state and your fellow citizens to make sure this program gets front and center stage in the negotiating discussions.

Wouldn't be a bad idea for some of these related posts to be carved out and put elsewhere, but this is the single most active, most widely-read thread. Besides, it's Sunday. :biggrin:

 

[TE5LA]

This is pure speculation/wishful thinking. But after visiting the Tesla Store at Tyson Corner VA (again) this weekend and seeing that they only have one model S in the "showroom", when they normally have two. Could they be making space for the X? Are ominous open spaces appearing in other stores?
It would be huge for their marketing if they suddenly just showed up in each of their stores. Also logistically it should be pretty straight forward..
I remember from the quarterly call Elon mentioned that they were only a couple of weeks away from having Alpha models ready. There has been nothing on this since then, perhaps they are further ahead..

 

[Lump]

This is pure speculation/wishful thinking. But after visiting the Tesla Store at Tyson Corner VA (again) this weekend and seeing that they only have one model S in the "showroom", when they normally have two. Could they be making space for the X? Are ominous open spaces appearing in other stores?
It would be huge for their marketing if they suddenly just showed up in each of their stores. Also logistically it should be pretty straight forward..
I remember from the quarterly call Elon mentioned that they were only a couple of weeks away from having Alpha models ready. There has been nothing on this since then, perhaps they are further ahead..

 

[chickensevil]

This is pure speculation/wishful thinking. But after visiting the Tesla Store at Tyson Corner VA (again) this weekend and seeing that they only have one model S in the "showroom", when they normally have two. Could they be making space for the X? Are ominous open spaces appearing in other stores?
It would be huge for their marketing if they suddenly just showed up in each of their stores. Also logistically it should be pretty straight forward..
I remember from the quarterly call Elon mentioned that they were only a couple of weeks away from having Alpha models ready. There has been nothing on this since then, perhaps they are further ahead..

Again, the Alphas would not very likely make an appearance. It would be the Betas, and those are not likely to be coming off the line until Oct at the soonest, most likely Nov. You will also most likely know well in advance of their appearance because they are going to most likely hold a "private" party in CA for the initial reveal (like they did with the Roadster and the MS). I mean, sure, they could do something totally different this time, but I don't really see how that would benefit them in anyway, other than driving demand... which is likely something they are trying to avoid at the moment.

Not trying to be a debbie downer here, because it would be really nice to have them all just suddenly appear in the stores... But most likely they sold off their floor model (you know they do that from time to time) and are waiting on a new car to replace the one that was sitting there.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Again, the Alphas would not very likely make an appearance. It would be the Betas, and those are not likely to be coming off the line until Oct at the soonest, most likely Nov. You will also most likely know well in advance of their appearance because they are going to most likely hold a "private" party in CA for the initial reveal (like they did with the Roadster and the MS). I mean, sure, they could do something totally different this time, but I don't really see how that would benefit them in anyway, other than driving demand... which is likely something they are trying to avoid at the moment.

Not trying to be a debbie downer here, because it would be really nice to have them all just suddenly appear in the stores... But most likely they sold off their floor model (you know they do that from time to time) and are waiting on a new car to replace the one that was sitting there.

Agreed that the Alphas probably won't make a public appearance other than perhaps some unofficial spy photos. The Alpha is to verify the design, so it's features may be tweaked here and there, and it won't reflect the exact final product.

The Beta is where the action is, because it's the design with the final feature. With the Beta, the goal is to work out kinks in the production process. I believe that a successful Beta reveal will send the stock much higher because it would prove that Tesla can again produce a hit product, and also get investors excited.

 

[TSLAROX]

I'm betting we'll see the AWD Model S supercar in stores before we see the X. At a much higher price point with far fewer cars sold, this would allow Tesla to do some real-world testing of the front motor before releasing AWD in huge volume with the X.

I'm sure the supercar will generate tons of excitement (best car ever made; faster than a Bugatti), but I do worry that this would also reinforce the "rich person's toy" narrative.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I'm betting we'll see the AWD Model S supercar in stores before we see the X. At a much higher price point with far fewer cars sold, this would allow Tesla to do some real-world testing of the front motor before releasing AWD in huge volume with the X.

I'm sure the supercar will generate tons of excitement (best car ever made; faster than a Bugatti), but I do worry that this would also reinforce the "rich person's toy" narrative.

I don't see why a awd would be put into the store. Don't expect you will see difference in how it looks on a show room floor

 

[Monsoon]

I'm betting we'll see the AWD Model S supercar in stores before we see the X. At a much higher price point with far fewer cars sold, this would allow Tesla to do some real-world testing of the front motor before releasing AWD in huge volume with the X.

I'm sure the supercar will generate tons of excitement (best car ever made; faster than a Bugatti), but I do worry that this would also reinforce the "rich person's toy" narrative.

Be cautious when using the term, "super car." Elon has eluded to wanting to make a "super car" in the past, but it is not a reference to a Model S with or without AWD. I think an AWD option for Model S is more likely to come with the "refresh" whenever that happens. Or, it could just show up one day in the list of options -- that sort of thing has happened before (e.g., folding mirrors). It's also clear the strategic prioroty for Tesla isn't to make fewer cars with higher margin; it is to make MANY cars, with little (ok, prudent) regard to short-term profits.

 

[MartinAustin]

they only have one model S in the "showroom", when they normally have two. Could they be making space for the X? Are ominous open spaces appearing in other stores?

most likely they sold off their floor model (you know they do that from time to time) and are waiting on a new car to replace the one that was sitting there.

Yes to that. Don't forget.. there are only 2 weeks left in this fiscal quarter. You are going to see a lot of store demo cars going away as they "deliver" them to customers and beef up the numbers by replacing them with new cars which they deliver to themselves (and do not need to leave the factory, since they're already in possession)

 

[Chrisr400cc]

This is pure speculation/wishful thinking. But after visiting the Tesla Store at Tyson Corner VA (again) this weekend and seeing that they only have one model S in the "showroom", when they normally have two. Could they be making space for the X? Are ominous open spaces appearing in other stores?
It would be huge for their marketing if they suddenly just showed up in each of their stores. Also logistically it should be pretty straight forward..
I remember from the quarterly call Elon mentioned that they were only a couple of weeks away from having Alpha models ready. There has been nothing on this since then, perhaps they are further ahead..

I was at the Mission Viejo store about a month and a half ago and noticed they only had one car when they previously had 2. I was thinking the same thing about the Model X. I asked what happened to the other car and they said they needed it for the test drive events.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I was at the Mission Viejo store about a month and a half ago and noticed they only had one car when they previously had 2. I was thinking the same thing about the Model X. I asked what happened to the other car and they said they needed it for the test drive events.

Maybe selling before end of qtr?

 

[TSLAROX]

the strategic prioroty for Tesla isn't to make fewer cars with higher margin; it is to make MANY cars

Right. But I'm suggesting that one way to ensure reliability of the AWD dual motor is to test it out in smaller volume on a supercar, rather than possibly having to deal with mass reliability issues with the X.

 

[JRP3]

You don't "test" a motor on a new production car by selling it to people, especially when you are busy struggling to get another model on the market.

 

[MartinAustin]

Back to TSLA...

Is anyone concerned that stockholders who think of TSLA as a momentum stock may unload some of their holdings this week in order to get some Alibaba on Friday?

The wisdom of buying Alibaba is not worth discussing here... but if there are a lot of folks selling it, there could be some undue softening of TSLA.

 

[TSLAopt]

You don't "test" a motor on a new production car by selling it to people, especially when you are busy struggling to get another model on the market.

Agree, I think they are already testing the AWD on the S and will offer it as a feature soon so that S sales don't get cannibalized by the X as much.

also, I remember hearing somewhere that AWD will be able to be added on the original S at a cost, does anyone else remember hear this and if so where?

 

[NigelM]

This is pure speculation/wishful thinking. But after visiting the Tesla Store at Tyson Corner VA (again) this weekend and seeing that they only have one model S in the "showroom", when they normally have two. Could they be making space for the X? Are ominous open spaces appearing in other stores?
It would be huge for their marketing if they suddenly just showed up in each of their stores. Also logistically it should be pretty straight forward..
I remember from the quarterly call Elon mentioned that they were only a couple of weeks away from having Alpha models ready. There has been nothing on this since then, perhaps they are further ahead..

Alphas cost a lot of money and, being alphas, are subject to much change. It wouldn't make any sense to use an alpha as a store model. Model X reservations are rolling in at a rapid rate already btw.

 

[chickensevil]

Back to TSLA...

Is anyone concerned that stockholders who think of TSLA as a momentum stock may unload some of their holdings this week in order to get some Alibaba on Friday?

The wisdom of buying Alibaba is not worth discussing here... but if there are a lot of folks selling it, there could be some undue softening of TSLA.

I keep seeing people bring this up. I'm not sure I would buy that people would leave their major holdings in TSLA for it. People might sell a few shares but I doubt people would liquidate their core position.

Any drop caused by it would also be a good time to buy for those looking to get more shares so I don't really see a negative here.

Between this and the Fed meeting this week (which is always a tense time for the market) this could be a down week for the stock. Just a guess... Would also depend on what comes out of the Fed meeting.

Anyway, if this is the start of a decline period for the stock I would wait for a more solid drop and then look to acquire more shares. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Robertj]

IMHO TEsla stock is not moved by individual investors to any great extent

It is moved by Funds either trying to acquire more shares or offload shares

Those decisions would I suggest have more to with

A the general market trends
B Tesla's future outlook

If a fund were to consider investing in Alibaba , it may liquidate some current holdings , in my opinion
the fund would most likely to liquidate it's " non performing " assets and retain it's "performing " assets
(Tesla) with good future upside