Seems your 2 cents is right..lots of downward pressure on the stock in premarket. Down $4-$5.
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Seems your 2 cents is right..lots of downward pressure on the stock in premarket. Down $4-$5.
InTheShadows
Active Member
chickensevil
Active Member
Well apparently today it is being caused by China's factory output which has apparently been the weakest growth in nearly 6 years.
Oil is taking a hit because of another round of sanctions in Russia (not sure why this would directly impact TSLA other than it just being wrapped into that whole market?) But with oil down to 97$ a barrel maybe people see this as a negative driver to Tesla since falling oil prices means less people are likely to buy an expensive EV?
But this is what a Reuters article had to say on the subject:
It wouldn't surprise me at all if this is just a ploy to drive people away from EVs again. They have done this two times now, this would only make the third... But I think it is too late, the cat is out of the bag. And if Tesla can get the battery cost down then Big Oil is doomed... But for today, this could be why we see a negative hit on the stock.
Also with the whole vote for scottish independence happening this week, I think, and that whole tense situation I am sure none of that is helping anything.
Lastly, as stated before the Fed is meeting this week 16-17. So that is anyone's guess how it will turn out the market.
So this all relating to TSLA, any downward pressure on the stock is likely to give shorts the fuel they are looking for to pile in and drive prices down. It is going to be an interesting week after we failed to close above 280 on Friday.
Edit: Here is the Reuters article I was referencing: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/15/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0HA00N20140915
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
MS drops price target: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-rat...an-stanley-reiterates-on-tesla-motors-inc-as-
Probably reassessing price targets. We had a lot of news the past few weeks (more like expectations coming to fruition).
Im expecting we'll see some consolidation this week (we were due for it). We won't be seeing anything major till the next news cycle for Tesla hits. Chances are this will be with Model X.
Im expecting we'll see some consolidation this week (we were due for it). We won't be seeing anything major till the next news cycle for Tesla hits. Chances are this will be with Model X.
No they didn't.
I just posted this comment on the Benzinga article: UPDATE: Morgan Stanley Reiterates On Tesla Motors Inc As Stock May Be Up For Wrong Reasons | Benzinga
"Morgan Stanley…reiterated an Overweight rating on Tesla Motors Inc…but removed the $320.00 price target…In the report, Morgan Stanley noted, "…we believe the shares are worth $320, but perhaps not so quickly"
Your article contradicts itself. There is no removal of the $320 target.
Further, MS' 15Sep2014 report "Tesla: Stock Up For The Wrong Reasons?" is odd, raising spurious issues at best:
"1. EVs are failing categorically on a global scale. Tesla aside, nearly the
rest of the auto industry's efforts to successfully commercialize pure electric
propulsion have fallen well short of the mark."
Illogic: You just rendered irrelevant the auto industry's tepid EV offerings by noting "Tesla aside,…"
"2. China demand growth may be severely limited by Tesla's ability to
develop the supporting dealer and service infrastructure...Challenges with
infrastructure, local business practices and impeded technology enablers could
prove agonizingly tough to develop as fast as the market's expectations.
Or, maybe not. This is not new information.
"3. Democratization of EVs is going too far, as it requires breakthroughs
that may be too unreasonable to take for granted as a base case."
Again, or maybe not, and no new information.
"4. In an autonomous world, why will people buy a Tesla? Our 15 year
DCF coincides with the end of human driving...Moore's
Law and compute power to move people and things...."
Illogic: The most bizarre one: Suddenly connecting autonomous driving with eliminating all the overwhelming advantages of EVs vs. ICE vehicles? And throwing in Moore's Law for no apparent reason?
chickensevil
Active Member
I scratch my head at this comment because it really makes no sense... they are saying it like you can go and easily get an Autonomous (or even semi-autonomous) car today... you can't... So how many people have the luxury of just sitting around and waiting until that glorious day like... 5 years from now... that you can actually get one... AND! Even when you can finally get one, how many people are going to 1: be able to afford it. 2: even want it? (Keep in mind the adoption/innovation curve is a very real thing with all technology... this will be no different... you will still have your early adopters, your early majority, late majority, etc...)
Giving up full, or mostly full, control over your car is going to be a tough pill for many people to swallow. I foresee a time when the government steps in and has to write a law that says all cars will come with this technology AND when you are driving on the interstate you MUST use it. It will be like in "I, Robot" where you are able to have the car go significantly faster, but in exchange for giving up control of the car. But yeah, not trying to derail on this subject too far, I just feel like this comment makes no sense.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Stock in free fall because of Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas wanting to put the breaks on. His opinion today makes no sense to me whatever, contradicts everything he's said before. Adam Jonas has always been extremely low-ball with his estimates for deliveries, and always proven wrong. He hasn't adjusted his numbers with the latest info available from Elon, since upping his target to $320 in January this year. I actually was expecting any moment for him to adjust up his target and thought he'd be in the $400 range.
Makes no sense at all and smells like someone wants to create a dip to get in cheap before the next run-up...
Makes no sense at all and smells like someone wants to create a dip to get in cheap before the next run-up...
chickensevil
Active Member
Again, I wouldn't say it is all AJ's note, although that is certainly helping. It is a lot to do with the market conditions on the whole as well. This is going to be down week I think for everyone.
NASDAQ is -.03
Cyclical Consumer Goods and Services is -.34%
FB is -1.23%
AMZ -1.12%
So a negative day AND a neutral analyst note (which coming from AJ, means it might as well be negative) and you have a recipe for mass destruction.
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Yikes! We broke 265! Uh-oh... this isn't going to be pretty to watch...
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For those contemplating selling your stock, I again will reiterate that there has been NOTHING changed about Tesla. They are executing exactly as they should be and where everyone has been expecting them to. Be careful about what you decide to sell, and think very long and hard about that decision. I know this is probably scary to watch, but I had been warning this might happen for a while now. Just hang on, and get your money ready for wherever this bottoms out.
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Which, by the way, looks like we got support sub 264 and it has been pulling back up to 265. So we will see what happens. This should be a pretty strong holding point for the stock.
NASDAQ is -.03
Cyclical Consumer Goods and Services is -.34%
FB is -1.23%
AMZ -1.12%
So a negative day AND a neutral analyst note (which coming from AJ, means it might as well be negative) and you have a recipe for mass destruction.
- - - Updated - - -
Yikes! We broke 265! Uh-oh... this isn't going to be pretty to watch...
- - - Updated - - -
For those contemplating selling your stock, I again will reiterate that there has been NOTHING changed about Tesla. They are executing exactly as they should be and where everyone has been expecting them to. Be careful about what you decide to sell, and think very long and hard about that decision. I know this is probably scary to watch, but I had been warning this might happen for a while now. Just hang on, and get your money ready for wherever this bottoms out.
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Which, by the way, looks like we got support sub 264 and it has been pulling back up to 265. So we will see what happens. This should be a pretty strong holding point for the stock.
Chickenlittle
Banned
jhm
Well-Known Member
I am happy to pick up more shares at 265 today. Not sure where the bottom is, but I think this is a good price for accumulation.
The biggest near term risk for longs is developing a sour sentiment based on recent price drops. We need to remain positive and focused on the longterm prospects. This is why I am buying shares instead of call options.
The biggest near term risk for longs is developing a sour sentiment based on recent price drops. We need to remain positive and focused on the longterm prospects. This is why I am buying shares instead of call options.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Anyone looking at the stock the other week when it was $289 would say "sure, I'll buy at $265!!!" - that is exactly what's happening today.
There are way too many investors waiting in the wings for TSLA to fall too far.
There are way too many investors waiting in the wings for TSLA to fall too far.
Chickenlittle
Banned
50-day sma is at 247 and 200-day is at 209... I don't think we are seeing anything below 250 anytime soon, unless cars start blowing up spontaneously.
chickensevil
Active Member
So the RSI managed to pull up to 75.39 before coming back down again, So Support is holding at the moment, but it could really still go either way at this point.
No idea whether it's going to be a down week or not, but I definitely agree that this is a combination of a shaky market on open and the Morgan Stanley note, not just one or the other.
Hopefully the broader market recovers from here, although it wouldn't be totally surprising to see it continue to move lower down to its 50-day. If it breaches (and closes) below that, I'll be making some defensive moves.
MartinAustin
Active Member
chickensevil
Active Member
I mean anyone wanting to make some defensive moves now wouldn't be a bad idea with some covered calls or some such. If I were looking to do something like this I would be thinking 290 on the Oct options. It would make you some money when they expire worthless, and should the stock actually get back up to there (which I really doubt...) you will have been able to potentially buy more shares at the bottom end anyway coming out overall positive on the trade. Just be mindful of Capital Gains if you are on a non-IRA account.
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