Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Robert.Boston]

Simple chart, blue is the trend line that was broken. I expect the 200 day won't hold combined with Q3 miss to start nibbling around $180.

Your "Q3 miss" is clearly speculative; OTOH, I don't expect Tesla to beat guidance given the factory issues. Still, I think all the movement Tuesday and Wednesday is market fears, hitting momo stocks, and people looking to short stocks that should do worse with lower oil prices.

 

[techmaven]

I do wonder when Tesla P85D reviews start to roll in, especially from well established automotive journalists. If Tesla is providing cars for them to examine right after the announcement, then we could start to get reviews before Q3 earnings. Does anyone has any insight into this?

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Adam Jonas thinks Model X delivery may be delayed

beacause "prototypes have been difficult to spot". ??? don't say? :smile:
though he reiterates his "overweight" and PT $320

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Wow. When were Q3 results released? Do you have inside information?

I wouldn't be happy to be technically broken.

 

[uselesslogin]

BTW if you don't do it already y'all should read the Model S ordering, production, delivery thread. It is a lot easier to hold on through any short-term downward movements when you know how big the P85D sales are.

 

[Lump]

I speculate the Model X delay speculation takes below the 200 day :wink:

 

[uselesslogin]

beacause "prototypes have been difficult to spot". ??? don't say? :smile:
though he reiterates his "overweight" and PT $320

How is the P85D not even mentioned? Does no one see how that will help the Q4 numbers?

 

[Robert.Boston]

BTW if you don't do it already y'all should read the Model S ordering, production, delivery thread. It is a lot easier to hold on through any short-term downward movements when you know how big the P85D sales are.

There's a reason I bought calls this week for Mar'15 and Jan'16, rather than closer in. I think we've got a lot of turbulence between now and the Q4 ER, but we'll get back past the ATH by March. "Please return to your seats and fasten your seat belts."

 

[Bunky]

Adam Jonas just the other week said it didn't matter when Model X came out, its coming.

It's like he is trying to nudge the price up and down to a very specific level.

 

[Zythryn]

How is the P85D not even mentioned? Does no one see how that will help the Q4 numbers?

As they are production constrained, I don't see P85D sales helping the number of sales.
They may help GM and will help revenue.

 

[AlMc]

There's a reason I bought calls this week for Mar'15 and Jan'16, rather than closer in. I think we've got a lot of turbulence between now and the Q4 ER, but we'll get back past the ATH by March. "Please return to your seats and fasten your seat belts."

Agreed. Macroeconomic events and just meet/just miss Q3 will put continued downward pressure on the stock. Good reviews about the P95M may be offset by possible delay in the X reveal that some are speculating up thread. Many people may make some significant money in this time of volitility but I am not smart enough (lucky enough?) to be able to call these swings with great precision. I may nibble in/out a little but mostly sitting on the sidelines at this time.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

How is the P85D not even mentioned? Does no one see how that will help the Q4 numbers?

He did mention the "D" only in general and in terms of deliveries. Well, I guess analysts' when being asked, have to say something - even if the content is not sufficient or is missing some important facts. Maybe because he's got a card up his sleeve...

 

[uselesslogin]

As they are production constrained, I don't see P85D sales helping the number of sales.
They may help GM and will help revenue.

Agreed, but by numbers I actually meant GM and revenue and ultimately EPS. That being said increased production is going to help a lot more than anything.

 

[JRP3]

Good reviews about the P95M may be offset by possible delay in the X reveal that some are speculating up thread.

Did I miss another new model reveal? :wink:

 

[Robert.Boston]

Interesting to see the price action in the first 13 minutes of trading. Bounced off the SMA at the opening bell, back up to 224-225 very quickly. Looks like AH trading wasn't indicative of the real market price.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I speculate the Model X delay speculation takes below the 200 day :wink:

I speculate that you will lose out of opportunity to enter at 180 because you'll still be trying to talk the stock down

 

[Lump]

Putin must have felt ignored for the last couple of weeks so he needs attention...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102078856

 

[v12 to 12v]

Interesting to see the price action in the first 13 minutes of trading. Bounced off the SMA at the opening bell, back up to 224-225 very quickly. Looks like AH trading wasn't indicative of the real market price.

Did you catch the video that Curt Renz posted yesterday afternoon in the "Short Term Social Thread"? I think that is what's going on.

 

[Lump]

I speculate that you will lose out of opportunity to enter at 180 because you'll still be trying to talk the stock down

You may be right but I plan on holding my last put until earnings regardless...how does one talk a stock down, that would be pretty cool.

 

[AlMc]

Did I miss another new model reveal? :wink:

Yes you did. I have the first one 0-60 2.5 seconds; 110 KW battery pack with 400 mile range. I got the tech package that includes the wings and amphibious modes. I hear now there is a new thread about how everyone wants a refund on their orders on the 'old' P85D or at the very least, the retrofit. :wink: