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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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Don't rely on cdc. There was a case of Ebola in Reston va that was known to cdc and a handler of the infected monkey admitted to community hospital. Cdc decided not to inform his physicians to prevent a panic. It was later named the Reston strain. It turns out that it does not cause disease in humans (not known at the time of dx). This was about 25 yrs ago. Don't depend on cdc for rational decisions

As you note, that was a generation ago. Different people are now in most management positions at the CDC. The CDC has been sending Americans who contracted Ebola in Africa to Emory University Hospital in Georgia. Those cases appear to have been handled well. The Liberian who was on a plane from Africa to Texas eventually died in Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas. The nurses who caught the virus from him were of course working in that hospital.
 
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One hopes Elon and company are going to be reporting at least in-line Q3 '14 numbers and very upbeat Q4'14 / 2015 outlook numbers when the Q3 ER happens.

Otherwise, TSLA might be in the 100's again.



I'm not sure inline reporting is going to be enough to keep TSLA from dropping any more. It's already danced with the 200-day MA and with NFLX reporting inline but down 25% after hours, my confidence in TSLA holding this price has dropped.
 
NFLX is down over $100/share in AH trading from $450 to $350. This is pulling QQQ and TSLA down after hours. Scary.

No matter what happens tomorrow, I think we are seeing the return of swings and volatility to a market used to the complacency of QE's effect on rates.


Yes, were down $8 after hours now from the NFLX sentiment but it's important to note the volume in TSLA after hrs as being less than 100k shares I believe being traded so far since the close
 
I wonder if this is affecting TSLA after hours also.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...hibition-of-sales-in-michigan.html?cmpid=yhoo

shame to see the afternoon gain disappear after hours.

While Bloomberg posted that after the market close, Seeking Alpha disseminated it at 13:46 EDT when TSLA had barely begun its afternoon rally: http://seekingalpha.com/news/2033025-roadblock-for-tesla-motors-in-michigan?uprof=46#email_link

I see the collusion between dealerships and state legislators as a boon to Tesla while it is production constrained. It does not need to be actively selling in all states while it has a backlog of orders. This interference gets Tesla in the news and gains consumer sympathy. Once production gears up to speed, look for Tesla to get the federal courts to invoke the US Constitution's Interstate Commerce Clause.

The dealerships don't really want to sell or service electric cars. They do want to keep selling and servicing ICEs. But their picking on the little guy may eventually cause their contracts with the established automakers to not be renewed. They're not very bright.
 
Back to short term: I am long term bull but I do believe in being defensive short term. How are you all going to 'play' this short term? Currently, I am accumulating cash and I am concerned through Q3ER. I did add a few LEAPS today but may sit on the sidelines for awhile.


After today, I'm not sure what I'll be doing. I nearly pulled the trigger earlier when TSLA was in the low 220s but glad I didn't as it rallied through the rest of the day. However, the after hours price action has me back wishing I liquidated when it hit 230. I have a feeling this may be the last time we see this level for a while and low 200s or possibly in the high 100s is coming.

I have less than 50% confidence in seeing any kind of rise after Q3 ER especially if Tesla doesn't post a significant enough beat. If Tesla reports inline, be prepared for TSLA to get punished heavily after earnings.
 
Takes me seconds to plug in my car, minutes would be a slowdown.

Really though, these battery articles are a dime a dozen. I'm half convinced they're a deliberate attempt to Osborne people out of buying current EVs while they wait for the next best thing.

The power required to charge an 85kwh battery in 2 minutes is over 2.5MW, by the way.
 
After today, I'm not sure what I'll be doing. I nearly pulled the trigger earlier when TSLA was in the low 220s but glad I didn't as it rallied through the rest of the day. However, the after hours price action has me back wishing I liquidated when it hit 230. I have a feeling this may be the last time we see this level for a while and low 200s or possibly in the high 100s is coming.

I have less than 50% confidence in seeing any kind of rise after Q3 ER especially if Tesla doesn't post a significant enough beat. If Tesla reports inline, be prepared for TSLA to get punished heavily after earnings.

"Feelings" usually lead investors astray. Tesla is in an entirely different situation from Netflix, whose earnings report appears to be scaring TSLA traders in the after-hours. The two companies' products, prices, and target markets are entirely different. Netflix beat expectations for Q3, but its customer growth and Q4 guidance were disappointing. Tesla is not really valued based on current or next quarter earnings. It's based on the potential for when Models X & 3 and the Gigafactory become realities.
 
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