hockeythug
Active Member
The 3Q13 shareholder said "slightly over 5,500, including over 1,000 deliveries to European customers."
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...d256/Tesla Q3'13 Shareholder Letter final.pdf
So maybe 7,000 ish?
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The 3Q13 shareholder said "slightly over 5,500, including over 1,000 deliveries to European customers."
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...d256/Tesla Q3'13 Shareholder Letter final.pdf
So maybe 7,000 ish?
Visibility into this quarter's numbers are particularly difficult since it hinges mostly on territories that we have huge gaps or worse, unreliable information. It makes sense for Tesla to deliver near the factory to try to make their guidance and therefore a high North America figure was anticipated. There was a report of lots of cars being delivered in Vancouver, for instance here on TMC. I think Japan's numbers are low and UK's number is under 200. So it's on China and North America.
In 2013 Q3 ER, Tesla barely beat guidance, delivering 5,500 deliveries on guidance of 5,000. However, that quarter also had a huge run up due to VIN counting over-reliance that made the bulls overconfident. We went from the 165-175 range ATH range at the time to 120's before recovering. Of course, by January we exceeded the 175 level, only to revisit ever so briefly after Q1 2014 earnings.
This time, we already had a drop from the 280's. If we go too high here, I think we get a big drop in ER. But again, it will be short lived.
Yes, lots of spin in his statement, given that we knew there was a big push in September. But, Ward's said -11% September USA and Elon Musk at the minimum corrected that (EDIT: or rather the implication of that). So his tweet wasn't a logical reason to adjust rational expectations, but if you're discussing the stock market, true spin from the CEO that corrects an error in (EDIT: or the interpretation of) an article can have an impact because it brings the article into question and the butterfly flaps its wings.
mejojo
Active Member
Could I request that some of you that executed successful (so far, at least) options strategies yesterday to please post details over on the newbie options thread? I think it's a good teaching moment.
jhm
Well-Known Member
My head is hurting from the misinformation and lack of basic math in this article
"Tesla has said it can deliver 6600 cars by the end of the year"
"Tesla's sales pace actually seems fine, as long as Tesla continues to sell cars at a rate that mirrors a 2014 monthly production output of around 700 cars (and that's supposed to increase next year)."
Here's What Could Really Be Going On With Tesla Sales - Business Insider
"Tesla has said it can deliver 6600 cars by the end of the year"
"Tesla's sales pace actually seems fine, as long as Tesla continues to sell cars at a rate that mirrors a 2014 monthly production output of around 700 cars (and that's supposed to increase next year)."
Here's What Could Really Be Going On With Tesla Sales - Business Insider
jhm
Well-Known Member
I think we may be witnessing a media melt down. Incoherent FUD everywhere. Even Fortune is euphemistically calling Musk a liar in a pathetic effort to defend the honor of the WSJ. I don't care who the contributors are; editors at WSJ, Fortune and elsewhere need to be fired. The lack of journalistic professionalism is appalling and a blight on the reputations of their respective media organizations. I do not comprehend what sort of pressure is being brought to bear on these organizations to cause them to blemish their good names in such a way.
On the positive side, I suspect that these signs of desperation may signal the last gasps of Tesla shorts. Perhaps we may see a spectacular short squeeze before long. Regardless, Tesla will keep growing it's business and confound the critics.
On the positive side, I suspect that these signs of desperation may signal the last gasps of Tesla shorts. Perhaps we may see a spectacular short squeeze before long. Regardless, Tesla will keep growing it's business and confound the critics.
mejojo
Active Member
Any new predictions of end-of-day price?
Thinking of closing out a portion of my long positions and would like to hold onto an extra few thousand $ if I can get it early.
Thinking of closing out a portion of my long positions and would like to hold onto an extra few thousand $ if I can get it early.
hockeythug
Active Member
And what's with everyone using the term "sales" vs deliveries? Media/analysts still do not grasp how Tesla accounts for their vehicles?
Correct, hockeythug. Despite this being addressed on every CC recently. Like someone said yesterday, all it shows is that the broader market still doesn't understand tesla, which still gives us the advantage. When everyone starts understanding tesla, that's when it's time to de-leverage your positions in the company. That time has not come yet.
The lifeblood of the media is advertising revenue. The oil companies, established automakers and car dealerships advertise heavily. Tesla Motors does not yet advertise while it is production constrained. Guess who might be in disfavor with some media executives.
When I was in the financial media, I went direct to sources, even when first alerted by the newswires. We did not have access to the internet until late in my career. Nowadays lazy reporters just rewrite what they read on the internet, often mangling the original. They also are happy to get "tips" from financial professionals, like Jim Cramer admitted he provided when he was a hedge fund manager. In yesterday's Tesla case I suspect that reporters were "tipped" that the only reason for the new leasing program was to prop up demand since Wards Automotive had supposedly determined that sales were down. Once that got into the mainstream media, many investors accepted it as gospel. The shorts were delirious at reading what they "wanted" to believe. Some of them may be rethinking their positions today.
Cramer on manipulation: Jim Cramer Explains How The Stock Market Is Manipulated - YouTube
jhm
Well-Known Member
Moreover, they do not seem to grasp that having US Bank own to lease the cars changes the GAAP accounting situation. When Tesla leases a car they only recognize 1/24 of the revenue each quarter. This is largely why Tesla has been unprofitable on a GAAP basis. But with US Bank doing the leasing this could all change. GAAP profitability may well come by Q1. So the gig could be up for shorts.
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