Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[gudny]

There is definitely a panic in the market after it traded below $200. I like the theory that trading bots are pushing hard and get stop-loss triggered. The pattern of last few hours is definitely showing lots of stop-losses are getting hit.

Most importantly, be patient and don't get panic. We come that far from 265 to now 185, be strong and keep the belief that Tesla is going to be strong, nothing fundamentally wrong.

 

[ibcs]

I bought more shares at 188.50 trying to catch the knife edge. Hopefully, we will get a bounce soon.

 

[AlMc]

I have moved to repeated buy orders in for small amounts of shares incrementally at lower price targets, Yes, I am trying to catch knives.

 

[CyberDutchie]

That was scary this morning. Hope I did the right thing, rolled my Jan '15 150 calls over to Jan '16 220's, with some cash out to sit on the sidelines just in case we see further drops. Just didn't want to risk those Jan '15 becoming worthless, have been burned before.

Picked the 220's because they were down the most, and still reasonable strike price for the time they have.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

a short but crystal clear message: "Fear of failure is the biggest roadblock to finding our true path."

http://www.tennessean.com/story/money/2014/04/13/gregg-steinberg-let-fear-failure-hold-back/7617669/

 

[justdoit]

I think we should have a strong rest of the week. I don't know if shorts would want to keep their positions heading into the weekend since Elon will be in China for multiple events. I'm really hoping those events will be big and provide a much needed boost next week. Smart shorts should take their profits and not get too greedy. Longs should do the same once we get to all time highs again. Hopefully that'll be next week

 

[bsd]

Hope I did the right thing, rolled my Jan '15 150 calls over to Jan '16 220's, with some cash out to sit on the sidelines just in case we see further drops. Just didn't want to risk those Jan '15 becoming worthless, have been burned before.

How did you get burned previously? Did your options go OTM?

 

[Jack6591]

I found this interesting.

Why big market bounces are becoming the norm - CBS News

 

[CyberDutchie]

How did you get burned previously? Did your options go OTM?

A lot of people here expected TSLA to hit $200 after Q3 earnings. But the car fires tanked the stock. I was holding Dec 19 $180 calls that expired worthlessly.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I bought more shares at 188.50 trying to catch the knife edge. Hopefully, we will get a bounce soon.

I bought at 187. I find it hard to believe it can fall much more now, but we'll see. Hoping for some good news soon.

(I'm thinking the sales numbers out of Norway in April will at least be decent. I drove past Drammen SC the other day, and there appeared to be 20-30 Model S standing outside waiting to be delivered. April could have been a serious lull in deliveries, but judging by the activity there, a few hundred deliveries may well be possible.)

 

[sundaymorning]

I bought at 187. I find it hard to believe it can fall much more now, but we'll see. Hoping for some good news soon.

IMO The best of news arrived a few hours ago when China's GDP beat estimates by .1%. The street was expecting GDP of 7.3% from China, numbers came in at 7.4% well on tract to meeting 2014 GDP estimates of 7.5%. 1st Q GDP for China is expected to be low due to the Chinese New Year holidays where almost every avenue of business shuts down for several days. Many doom and gloom economists in the past several weeks have been publishing ultra low GDP estimates from China, I've even heard of 5.5%, which would be a catastrophe in macroeconomic terms. These types of talks IMO contributed to the market correction in the US as many investors feared that the world economy isn't as healthy as it seems.

So what does all this GDP data mean? It means that the world economy is still doing well and talks of a recession or pullback is unwarranted and just noise. The Nekkei is up over 350 points as I speak. I really expect a turnaround in the market tomorrow and the only true threat left to macroeconomic stability is RUSSIA. Good luck to everyone.

 

[sleepyhead]

IMO The best of news arrived a few hours ago when China's GDP beat estimates by .1%. The street was expecting GDP of 7.3% from China, numbers came in at 7.4% well on tract to meeting 2014 GDP estimates of 7.5%. 1st Q GDP for China is expected to be low due to the Chinese New Year holidays where almost every avenue of business shuts down for several days. Many doom and gloom economists in the past several weeks have been publishing ultra low GDP estimates from China, I've even heard of 5.5%, which would be a catastrophe in macroeconomic terms. These types of talks IMO contributed to the market correction in the US as many investors feared that the world economy isn't as healthy as it seems.

So what does all this GDP data mean? It means that the world economy is still doing well and talks of a recession or pullback is unwarranted and just noise. The Nekkei is up over 350 points as I speak. I really expect a turnaround in the market tomorrow and the only true threat left to macroeconomic stability is RUSSIA. Good luck to everyone.

Chinese GDP growth of 7.4% in Q1 is YoY, so there is no "seasonality" in GDP readings unless you were to quote to QoQ number, which came in at 1.4%.

7.4% nonetheless is a good number, and should alleviate fears of a Chinese meltdown.

 

[JRP3]

Don't know if Tesla will indulge but the announcement could be seen as positive: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/us-usa-loans-renewables-idUKBREA3F0WK20140416

 

[justthateasy]

After seeing today's price action so far, I wish I were around during pre-market hours because I would have predicted the drop after the open and everything else that followed. Glad to see TSLA up at the moment but I won't be surprised if it finishes near flat today. I have the feeling that it will be a long road to get back to and stay over 200.

 

[Noble Ninja]

If today's activity is driven mostly by bots, I bet the day will end with ~ 0.50 - 1.50 % from previous close, like we saw many times in the past. Haha.

 

[Julian Cox]

Take it easy. Yes, those customers filed a suit on Tesla for arranging the order of delivery before letting them know, they take the action as commercial fraud.
Veronica Wu declined the validity of the suit, since no commitment has ever offered on delivery order.

No worry.

This looks a bit like the issue with Sigs and production vehicles arriving at similar dates without distinct priority to early reservation holders that have made large deposit payments.

Is that correct?

Maybe the sort of thing Musk can solve with a series of exclusive signing events or meet and greet with sig holders.

 

[uselesslogin]

This looks a bit like the issue with Sigs and production vehicles arriving at similar dates without distinct priority to early reservation holders that have made large deposit payments.

Is that correct?

Maybe the sort of thing Musk can solve with a series of exclusive signing events or meet and greet with sig holders.

Also, I don't know about you, but I think having people sue you because they want you to take their money is not a bad position to be in.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Elon will deliver the first batch of Model S to Chinese customers on April 22nd!

So the ceremony date and time is certain now.

 

[erha]

That gives Elon time to finish the SpaceX launch at the 18th


...and the "rendezvous" at the 20th

 

[BB_up]

Correct.
The writer puts some noise into the delivery process in China. I would say it confuses the public with the ''management conspiracy'' in Tesla.

However, I do not believe any conspiracy and management chaos exist in Tesla China team.
According to the news, I guess the reason that customers in Beijing and Shanghai have delivery priority is because they are more reachable for the technicians to install charging device. Tesla is new in China, and they have to satisfy the biggest urban area first.
Tesla said they want to setup the charging device before any car is delivered. This makes perfect sense. I think Tesla want to confirm the charging safety for any customer in China. They can not bear any risk that may cause the car on fire, any single problem with car safety will hurt the demand in China badly.
Another point, as I said before, Tesla did not guarantee the order of delivery in any legal format.

Elon may be challenged with the questions like this, I hope he can provide aggressive and concrete plan to develop the business in China. People in China like "face" a lot, and their patience is limited, although we fully acknowledge that Tesla is too young to serve a big body of potential buyers.

This looks a bit like the issue with Sigs and production vehicles arriving at similar dates without distinct priority to early reservation holders that have made large deposit payments.

Is that correct?

Maybe the sort of thing Musk can solve with a series of exclusive signing events or meet and greet with sig holders.