Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[kenliles]

If they up guidance from 35k and Model X and China demand coming in strong, then I think stock does nothing but go up.

that will indeed be the challenge; they'll have to strongly counter the knee jerk of Q1- I agree it will come down to the strength of forward guidance. I remain strong long in LEAPS, but holding some serious cash to apply if the market once again gets it wrong.
The market is always wrong
(that's why it has to correct itself every milli-second or so)

 

[c041v]

If they up guidance from 35k and Model X and China demand coming in strong, then I think stock does nothing but go up.

As much as I want to believe you (So do my deeply underwater calls) I can't see them altering guidance, even if demand was off the charts. There's simply too varaibles involved in the ramp-up, establishment of the X assembly line and I highly doubt they will tolerate any quality risk, especially considering they are just enterring new markets.

I guess I should pull back a bit, you only said the stock would do nothing but go up, not hit a new ATH. I think kenliles is right though, the term should be used with extreme caution. In the last few months, you could make a compelling arguement that TSLA had no business being near either $185 or $265, yet here we are.

Personally, I may lower the strikes of some outstanding calls if we recover some ground. Not that I think $300 is an unreasonable target by '15, I just don't want to get caught in one of these troughs again where I go from relatively ITM to $75+ OTM. I'm simply not sophisticated enough to react properly without bleeding money all over the place.

 

[Room_A113]

Careers | Tesla Motors

Together with all the machining jobs listed it seems it's simply going to be a parts manufacturing center. Having that extra facility means they can maximize Fremont's car output. It's a forward-looking move.

Re: Lathrop: It couldl be for for manufacturing the new battery trays with built-in titanium armour. That would really just mean an added expense. :frown:

Or better yet, for making the new battery trays for upcoming 100Kwh battery packs. :wink:

 

[sleepyhead]

I would be thrilled to let my puts expire worthless.

You really think a new ATH is in the cards with all the recent Macro news?

IMO, all of the macro news is really, really, really good!

 

[FANGO]

I wouldn't count on raised guidance either, because they just set it 3 months ago. The only thing I can think of is if they deliberately set it slightly low so they could slightly raise it, by like 500 or 1k cars, to offset the planned lower deliveries this quarter because of the end of front-loading of deliveries. Maybe they thought people would react poorly to seemingly "flat" deliveries and they wanted to have some nice news to balance that out.

That said, I don't think they plan these sorts of things out to keep the stock price high or anything, so I doubt that was their thinking. But that's one reasonable justification I could see for raising guidance - though if they do so, it will be very slight I think.

 

[Johan]

I think if the guidance was to be raised substantially they'd be required to pre-announce, like they did before Q4 report, and which they haven't done now. What will really move the stock now is news about aggressive growth projects like GigaFactory and the new plant in Lathrop, China demand and Model X timeline+reservations.

 

[justthateasy]

I see TSLA is slightly up in pre-market hours. Why do I have the feeling that TSLA will open with a small gap up from yesterday's close, hit a high of 208, then drop off and stay deep in the red for the rest of the day?

Looks like I was dead wrong about my prediction about TSLA price action today and I'm glad I was. Glad to see TSLA deep in the green and hope that the selloff is finally over. I'll post a chart later today.

 

[TSLAopt]

I think if the guidance was to be raised substantially they'd be required to pre-announce, like they did before Q4 report, and which they haven't done now. What will really move the stock now is news about aggressive growth projects like GigaFactory and the new plant in Lathrop, China demand and Model X timeline+reservations.

I've researched this a lot and have found no specific language anywhere requiring preannouncements for better than expected numbers by any amount (there is regulation I believe for requiring the preannouncing when much worse than expected).

It seems to be more of a company's personality on whether they will preannounce on great news or not. Didn't AAPL have wildly better than expect earnings reports several times a few years back? They didn't preannounce as it was not their MO.
tesla preannounced at Detroit auto show so it might seem to be in their DNA that they would do it again though if it was way better than expectations other quarters too.

 

[Cameron]

Looks like I was dead wrong about my prediction about TSLA price action today and I'm glad I was. Glad to see TSLA deep in the green and hope that the selloff is finally over. I'll post a chart later today.

Ha, I had the same idea and ended up buying some puts around 209,50 for a little day trade only to watch it absolutely rip seconds later. Oh well.

 

[sleepyhead]

IMO, the only reason that Tesla preannounced in Detroit is because they needed to get the stock price up in order to raise funds for the GF.

The stock was in the $130s when they preannounced and got up to $200 prior to ER thanks to the pre-announcement. Had they not preannounced, the stock would have most likely been stuck around $120 - $160 going into ER, and the blowout ER would not have gotten them anywhere near $250.

It was IMO a "business" decision by Tesla to preannounce last time.

E.g. JASO guided towards 500MW-550MW shipped in Q4 and they delivered 665MW (30% beat) without any preannouncement. But for Q1 they guided towards 580MW-610MW and because of the BS market sell-off and TSL and YGE preannouncing missed guidance, JASO went ahead and preannounce more than 620MW and higher gross margin incrementally (even though they don't guide GM).

JASO did the preannouncement to stop the madness in the market.

 

[hobbes]

IMO, the only reason that Tesla preannounced in Detroit is because they needed to get the stock price up in order to raise funds for the GF.

+ 1

 

[FANGO]

IMO, the only reason that Tesla preannounced in Detroit is because they needed to get the stock price up in order to raise funds for the GF.

The stock was in the $130s when they preannounced and got up to $200 prior to ER thanks to the pre-announcement. Had they not preannounced, the stock would have most likely been stuck around $120 - $160 going into ER, and the blowout ER would not have gotten them anywhere near $250.

It was IMO a "business" decision by Tesla to preannounce last time..

I think TSLA did it last quarter to stem the rampant speculation about deliveries which had happened previous quarter, and was just starting to happen for Q1. I recall 9000+ being bandied about on here just one or two days before. Luckily people seem to have somewhat learned that lesson after two quarters of being taught it and we're not seeing any crazy numbers yet.

 

[InTheShadows]

I think TSLA did it last quarter to stem the rampant speculation about deliveries which had happened previous quarter, and was just starting to happen for Q1. I recall 9000+ being bandied about on here just one or two days before. Luckily people seem to have somewhat learned that lesson after two quarters of being taught it and we're not seeing any crazy numbers yet.

I'm expecting 9000+ deliveries. for Q4 that is.

We had a nice run today. Hopefully it was enough to get some shorts squirming. I would love to see two or three days in a row of 5% gains. Mainly for us to recoup the money we lost because if them piling on. I still think there was a lot that piled on and pressed the stock down so far. It caused some of us long options traders here some pain.

 

[justthateasy]

What's going on in the pre-market? Is TSLA down due to NFLX being down?

 

[FredTMC]

What's going on in the pre-market? Is TSLA down due to NFLX being down?

i think so

 

[bhuwan]

Why is NFLX down?

 

[justthateasy]

Looks like TSLA sold off right out of the gate this morning and still selling off a bit. It doesn't help that NFLX is down as well. Is this profit taking or new short positions or both?

- - - Updated - - -

Why is NFLX down?

More importantly, why is TSLA down after yesterday's news?

 

[Chickenlittle]

Looks like TSLA sold off right out of the gate this morning and still selling off a bit. It doesn't help that NFLX is down as well. Is this profit taking or new short positions or both?

- - - Updated - - -




More importantly, why is TSLA down after yesterday's news?

That's funny glass half full or half empty. I was happy but wondering why it was up so much yesterday. Delivery date known for almost a month in china. Nothing really new announced. Would not be surprised by profit taking and more shorts. This stock is never a straight line up except during short squeeze

 

[hockeythug]

Why is NFLX down?

Going to have to go with the HBO/Amazon streaming deal

http://www.theverge.com/2014/4/23/5643148/hbo-shows-coming-to-amazon-prime-instant-video

 

[justthateasy]

There just went half of yesterday's gains. I think we'll be lucky if TSLA manages to finish above 209 today if today's selloff continues.