Some bad press. I don't think it will change things much but might add so some selling pressure today.
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Some bad press. I don't think it will change things much but might add so some selling pressure today.
Yawn. Weak opinions are written about tesla every day. They never matter one at a time, only in aggregate if they are overwhelming and somewhat based in reality. And if they have no news to back themselves up, they're even more useless. Panasonic news is good. Next.
No doubt. But it's not all the time that those weak opinions make it to CNBC. Panasonic news is good, and will contribute to TSLA's long term upwards trend, but I don't think it will have a large effect on today's movement.
Agree, if Panasonic wants to be sole player (ex. raw material suppliers) in the gigafactory, I think it means a huge vote of confidence for batteries delivered at a 30% discount to current prices. Probably bigger discount.
The recent hints from Panasonic, unfortunately, confirm my earlier concerns (see link below) that they want to be the manufacturers at the GF "industrial park", but not so keen on being the part owners. Contrary to some opinions expressed here I think that Panasonic's comment that they want to invest step-by-step in line with the growing demand, means in-line with the Gen III demand, not MS/MX. So by definition they "will be ready" to invest heavily in GF some time after all investing will be and must be resolved.
In terms of market reaction, I feel that this would not be met kindly.
The silver lining might be that TM will be (or already probably is) more aggressive in persuading other potential investors to take on Panasonic's share, so announcement may came relatively soon (summer).
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 296
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VG: I see your point. An alternative view: I think TM can handle the cost of getting the site(s) going; permits, excavation/site prep and general construction and Panasonic starts to invest as general construction starts to complete AND TM opens up reservations for Gen 3. At that point, hopefully demand will further push Panasonic to invest more $, seeing the demand.
Alternative #2: TM handles initial building costs, as above, and (I know many people don't agree), a large capital infusion comes in from Apple or Google and Panasonic goes 'all in' as the reservations for Gen3 are opened.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'm sure the bears will jump all over this, but at this stage of the GF project it makes sense that Panasonic would only contribute a small amount.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/panasonic-spend-double-original-capex-093913020.html
I'd guess that Panasonic would not need to be heavily involved until maybe a year from now.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/panasonic-spend-double-original-capex-093913020.html
I'd guess that Panasonic would not need to be heavily involved until maybe a year from now.
i totally agree, in fact I would not even call these alternative points of view (as far as my personal attitude). I actually think that TM has more than couple of viable ways to handle this, but I feel (and this is exactly the right word - it just my feeling) that market at large expects all planning, including investment committments to be finalized in the near future. The actual investments would be, undoubtedly, spread overvtime.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I'm optimistic that $200 will hold. The drop to the $180's was unwarranted, and I think that investors generally have realized this.
I would be surprised to see drop inder $200 without a negative catalyst. While I know this probably belongs on 'social' thread I would add that with any drop under $200 I will be grabbing more June27 210s
At this point, I think each piece of the Gigafactory puzzle that drops into place further reinforces the fact that Tesla is really going to do this. It is amazing the number of people expressing doubt that Tesla is even building a Gigafactory, or whether or not Panasonic will be in it, or that they will even break ground. So I think we meander, possibly with the NASDAQ until the next step. A bad NASDAQ day can get us below $200 I think, and that will be a sign to load up for me. Either RHD market deliveries or something gigafactory related. I'm wondering how much before ground breaking is the site selection announcement.
I think we need to understand from Panasonic investor's point of view. Panasonic made huge commitments (2008-2010) to what they expected to be a big EV market and lost lots of money when it didn't come to pass. Therefore all statements in regards to Panasonic's investments have to seen in that light. They have a number of failing business units and so they have to be... measured, even by Japanese standards. A big up front commitment before seeing sales volumes is a big red flag for them.
They are currently spending significant money on battery plants in their FY 2015 (now) and that includes the build out of the Osaka plants to be able to deliver the volumes that Tesla wants for the Model S and X. Panasonic is reassuring investors that this is prudent given that they have made significant profits from supplying Tesla in the past year. This is a big change for Panasonic after seeing so much red.
Since Panasonic's involvement is likely much later in the factory startup process, Panasonic's need to both front cash and make the financial commitment in calendar year 2014 is very low. Tesla has to raise the up front money to break ground and they have. Panasonic needs to buy tooling and then hire and train employees, therefore their part is much later as the Gigafactory is unlikely to produce any real volumes before 2017. The timing of Panasonic's big expenditures is likely starting in later calendar 2015 and through 2016. Further, the Gigafactory is a phased deployment which is also capped by the level of expansion at the Fremont factory. Therefore Panasonic can reassure its investors that it's not just jumping head long into a big commitment ahead of demand because the numbers at the announced 2020 nameplate capacity are huge. They basically can point to the existing Osaka factories that are pushing out huge volumes of product and making a pretty penny (or yen), and therefore those profits from calendar years 2014 through 2016 can help pay for the costs of the initial Gigafactory build, and then as Tesla's sales volumes grow, they can then add investment through to nameplate capacity whenever that build out occurs. Further, Panasonic's Osaka plants continue to deliver batteries for Tesla and generate profit.
Given the likely scenario through time and the recent history, Panasonic is likely to shy away from making big splashy nameplate level commitments. From that lens, Panasonic's recent comments makes sense and there is no real divergence from Tesla's comments and Panasonic's comments.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Great analysis techmaven! We need to understand the more cautious attitude of Panasonic vs. Tesla "reckless growth" aggressive attitude. Nevertheless they will likely be great partners.
I think they are still pushing for leverage. To me the big question is how much leverage does TSLA have with other potential suppliers? Really comes down to the technologies and capabilities Panasonic has that others do not. Seems that Panasonic has some leadership on the chemistry side, but I'm unclear about how big their advantages would be on manufacturing.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
FWIW, we just crossed over the 100 day moving average on the upside.
As for the battery supply issue....TSLA is perhaps the only publicly traded company that has absolutely no demand problem. It's MUCH easier to handle supply problems than demand problems. Panasonic, at the end of the day, is benefitting wonderfully from TSLA and will surely ramp up production in a number of ways if they continue to see healthy demand.
As for the battery supply issue....TSLA is perhaps the only publicly traded company that has absolutely no demand problem. It's MUCH easier to handle supply problems than demand problems. Panasonic, at the end of the day, is benefitting wonderfully from TSLA and will surely ramp up production in a number of ways if they continue to see healthy demand.
As if on queue, the WSJ just released an article saying everything Techmaven told you a month ago!
This reads like fantastic confirmation that Panasonic and Tesla are going to be BFFs for a long time despite cultural differences, which they have been working together on for a long time.
From J.B.:
""There is not any frustration. It is that this whole external world is saying it is taking too long to get a [Panasonic] commitment," Mr. Straubel said. "With the excitement about the Gigafactory, suddenly the whole relationship is pushed into the limelight. It doesn't feel to us that things are taking too long. There is no sense of foot-dragging."
From Panasonic:
"Investments are scary considering the bitter experiences we've had," a company official said on condition of anonymity.
"I'm not sure if we're keeping up with the speed sought by" Tesla, Mr. Ito said.
"But there is no growth without investment," he added, speaking broadly about the company's auto business.
Panasonic Remains Unsure on Tesla Battery Factory Goals - WSJ.com
This reads like fantastic confirmation that Panasonic and Tesla are going to be BFFs for a long time despite cultural differences, which they have been working together on for a long time.
From J.B.:
""There is not any frustration. It is that this whole external world is saying it is taking too long to get a [Panasonic] commitment," Mr. Straubel said. "With the excitement about the Gigafactory, suddenly the whole relationship is pushed into the limelight. It doesn't feel to us that things are taking too long. There is no sense of foot-dragging."
From Panasonic:
"Investments are scary considering the bitter experiences we've had," a company official said on condition of anonymity.
"I'm not sure if we're keeping up with the speed sought by" Tesla, Mr. Ito said.
"But there is no growth without investment," he added, speaking broadly about the company's auto business.
Panasonic Remains Unsure on Tesla Battery Factory Goals - WSJ.com
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
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