Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[hobbes]

Another analyst mentioning a recent factory visit. I wonder if they all went on the same day.

At 7:13 in the bloomberg audio , Ben Kallo mentions "great innovation" in battery technology when he talks about his visit to the Fremont factory. Wonder if this refers to Tesla as compared to other EV manufacturers in general or to another step we will see in the next few months (like 100 kWh battery).

 

[Krugerrand]

But, but...it said *Panasonic to invest 20b - 30b yen in stages between 2015 and
2020; construction of plant to start by next year*

If 150b yen is 1.something billion, then 20-30b is well short. No? Or does the report mean, 20b-30b each YEAR from 2015-2020? That's unclear.

I don't care one way or another as I'm sure the GF will get built with or without Panasonic money.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

But, but...it said *Panasonic to invest 20b - 30b yen in stages between 2015 and
2020; construction of plant to start by next year*

If 150b yen is 1.something billion, then 20-30b is well short. No? Or does the report mean, 20b-30b each YEAR from 2015-2020? That's unclear.

I don't care one way or another as I'm sure the GF will get built with or without Panasonic money.

it's meant to be 20-30bn per year (or "in stages") within 5 years, thus from 2015 to 2020.

 

[Krugerrand]

it's meant to be 20-30bn per year (or "in stages") within 5 years, thus from 2015 to 2020.

Yeah, they need to include the words 'per year', because as it's written now it could be 20-30b (total) in stages during that five year period.

 

[ongba]

Looks Like a new article on SA by our old friend, Logical Thought:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2501685-why-projections-for-tesla-to-sell-500000-cars-in-2020-are-absurd

 

[chickensevil]

Looks Like a new article on SA by our old friend, Logical Thought:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/250...-tesla-to-sell-500000-cars-in-2020-are-absurd

Was just about to come post about that. For those who don't want to succumb to the click bait:

Wall Street's bullish projections for Tesla Motors Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) show the company accelerating from selling 35,000 cars this year (in 2014) to 500,000 cars in 2020, which would imply a six-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 55.8%.

To put this number in perspective, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)-- a software company and thus a business with no issues in scaling production (although physical distribution and customer service were certainly issues, as they are with Tesla)-- first broke $3 billion in sales in fiscal year 1993, generating $3.7 billion in revenue. (I'm using the $3 billion revenue base because that's analogous to where Tesla is now.) Six years later Microsoft did $19.7 billion in revenue, which was a CAGR of 32.1%.

Conclusion: even if Tesla were able to grow as quickly as Microsoft did in its prime (an absurd scenario for a non-monopolistic, non-software company) it would produce only 186,000 cars in 2020.

So, now, Tesla won't grow as fast as because Microsoft (a company whose product has a cost of .1% that of an MS) wasn't able to grow as fast.

 

[Curt Renz]

Looks Like a new article on SA by our old friend, Logical Thought:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/250...-tesla-to-sell-500000-cars-in-2020-are-absurd

As noted in Logical Thought's Seeking Alpha profile, his real name is Mark B. Spiegel and he's the Managing Member of Stanphyl Capital Management in New York. He admits he is short TSLA. He's been writing bearish TSLA articles for Seeking Alpha since mid-2013. In mid-2010 he began posting negative comments to TSLA articles at Seeking Alpha and is often the first to comment. I hope he has been keeping his hedge fund clients aware of his TSLA position and that it is fully funded or hedged.

In his twitter account he appears totally consumed with TSLA: Mark B. Spiegel (markbspiegel) | Twitter

 

[ongba]

Logical Thought's real name is Mark B. Spiegel and he's the Managing Member of Stanphyl Capital Management in New York. He admits he is short TSLA, and has been writing bearish TSLA articles at Seeking Alpha since May of 2013 when the stock was trading around $100. He adds a slew of negative comments to almost any TSLA article at Seeking Alpha and is often the first to comment. I hope he has been keeping his clients aware of his TSLA position and that it is fully funded or hedged.

In his twitter account he appears totally consumed with TSLA: Mark B. Spiegel (markbspiegel) | Twitter

I guess sometimes pride and the need to be right prevent people from doing what should have been done awhile back, ie closing the short position or simply stepping aside.

On another note, max pain remains at 255 for this friday, so in the absence of unexpected news from TSLA or the Fed, I would not be surprised if we drift to that level by close of friday.

 

[FluxCap]

Only 2 hours to go before the Fed meeting notes are released and Chairman Yellen begins speaking. Be cautious with your positions folks. I'm personally hedging with some QQQ (NASDAQ) puts as I feel the market is looking for an excuse to whack itself today. I of course could be wrong.

Edit:

Note is up:

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement--September 17, 2014

 

[MartinAustin]

Chairman Yellen's remarks occur at exactly the same time as Elon Musk's energy conference keynote!

Coincidence or no?

 

[eepic]

which link do you mean?
the article comes from BBG after a phone interview w/ Panasonic's spokeswomen Yayoi Watanabe.
The FX rate is simple to get just type in in Google JPY USD.

Derek, I think you misquoted this one. Panasonic spokesperson was specifically refuting that this came from them, was definitely confusing given the different Japanese names starting with Y. Thought I'd clear it up before folks here factor this information in.

At 04:44 this came out from Yomiuri
Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Panasonic, Tesla to reach final
agreement this month on investment in battery “gigafactory,”
Yomiuri reports, without citing anyone.

At 04:57:
*PANASONIC SPOKESWOMAN YAYOI WATANABE SPEAKS BY PHONE
*PANASONIC SAYS IT'S NOT SOURCE OF REPORT ON GIGAFACTORY

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Derek, I think you misquoted this one. Panasonic spokesperson was specifically refuting that this came from them, was definitely confusing given the different Japanese names starting with Y. Thought I'd clear it up before folks here factor this information in.

At 04:44 this came out from Yomiuri
Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Panasonic, Tesla to reach final
agreement this month on investment in battery “gigafactory,”
Yomiuri reports, without citing anyone.

At 04:57:
*PANASONIC SPOKESWOMAN YAYOI WATANABE SPEAKS BY PHONE
*PANASONIC SAYS IT'S NOT SOURCE OF REPORT ON GIGAFACTORY

indeed. Yes, the Y-names :biggrin:
Thank you, eepic for recognizing the confusion. I have seen these several lines on <CN> and grabbed the 1st on top.
So I assume you have BBG access as well?

 

[hobbes]

Here is the article by the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper titled "Panasonic eyes Y150 bil. for U.S. plant":
http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0001575208

This relates to a discussion here earlier:

For the $5 billion (¥530 billion) factory, the Japanese company plans to make its investment in increments of ¥20 billion to ¥30 billion spread out over the period from 2015 to 2020.

150 billion/6 years = 25 billion/year on average, so 20-30 billion makes sense. Seems pretty convincing to me, although the sources are not revealed, as it is one of the 5 major Japanese newspapers according to wikipedia.

 

[FluxCap]

In case anyone cares, I dumped my QQQ puts. No longer expecting Yellen to spook us with talk of early tapering.

I also bought TSLA weekly calls.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

In case anyone cares, I dumped my QQQ puts. No longer expecting Yellen to spook us with talk of early tapering.

I also bought TSLA weekly calls.

DJ + S&P500 both around 0.30% up
TSLA 1.32% up

 

[FluxCap]

DJ + S&P500 both around 0.30% up
TSLA 1.32% up

Yep

 

[chickensevil]

In case anyone cares, I dumped my QQQ puts. No longer expecting Yellen to spook us with talk of early tapering.

I also bought TSLA weekly calls.

Yeah, I also was trying to hedge just in case, and dumped for a minor loss, but it was good advice to prep just in case. I am actually holding some other QQQ calls that should make up for the loss if it keeps going up.

Now if TSLA would just hit 265 I will be happy, especially now that we don't have the Fed news to possibly drag us down.

 

[DaveH]

"– Stanphyl runs a highly concentrated (three to ten “best ideas”) long-short equity strategy"

dude like him is the reason Mr Musk hires a bodyguard.

As noted in Logical Thought's Seeking Alpha profile, his real name is Mark B. Spiegel and he's the Managing Member of Stanphyl Capital Management in New York. He admits he is short TSLA. He's been writing bearish TSLA articles for Seeking Alpha since mid-2013. Since mid-2010 he's been adding a slew of negative comments to almost any TSLA article at Seeking Alpha and is often the first to comment. I hope he has been keeping his hedge fund clients aware of his TSLA position and that it is fully funded or hedged.

In his twitter account he appears totally consumed with TSLA: Mark B. Spiegel (markbspiegel) | Twitter

 

[eepic]

indeed. Yes, the Y-names :biggrin:
Thank you, eepic for recognizing the confusion. I have seen these several lines on <CN> and grabbed the 1st on top.
So I assume you have BBG access as well?

No worries, that's what the TMC community here is for, more sets of eyes on things.

Btw, it seems like we may be seeing dancing (chart) unicorns soon now that Bezos/Blue Origin's engine will be used by NASA (albeit not their own vehicle)!

Last year:
“[Blue Origin] has not yet succeeded in creating a reliable suborbital spacecraft, despite spending over 10 years in development,” Musk wrote. “If they do somehow show up in the next 5 years with a vehicle qualified to NASA’s human rating standards that can dock with the Space Station, which is what Pad 39A is meant to do, we will gladly accommodate their needs. Frankly, I think we are more likely to discover unicorns dancing in the flame duct.”

 

[DaveT]

Elon's interviews on Fox Business News today:

Elon Musk on the next step for SpaceX, Nevada gigafactory | On Air Videos | Fox Business

Elon Musk: Will be able to achieve half a million cars by 2020 | On Air Videos | Fox Business