Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[InTheShadows]

I was just looking at that thread today as I was getting a little antsy. I have a feeling December is going to be a huge push similar to September except with cars that are more expensive

I was looking at those threads this weekend and I am amazed at how fast they are flying through the vins. I think TM is really cracking out a lot of cars.

 

[Curt Renz]

I was looking at those threads this weekend and I am amazed at how fast they are flying through the vins. I think TM is really cracking out a lot of cars.

And many of those new luxury car buyers will soon become highly satisfied customers who believe so much in the value of the company that they decide to become strong long-term shareholders. A constantly growing base of committed shareholders makes it ever more difficult for sellers to push down the share price or for shorts to cover their positions profitably.

 

[FANGO]

Some posts moved to Analyst Reports/Targets, others to Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements, some others to Newbie Options Trading, and all the oil/TSLA posts to Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic Analysis / Market Discussion Thread.

It'd be great if y'all could help out by trying to keep discussions in sensible threads. I know there's a great temptation to use this thread as a chat-room feed, but please don't.

I can't follow 20 different threads for every tiny topic. What are we supposed to talk about in here then? "Look, the stock went up a point" "oh, now it's back down"? Nothing else? What's the point?

 

[Curt Renz]

I can't follow 20 different threads for every tiny topic. What are we supposed to talk about in here then? "Look, the stock went up a point" "oh, now it's back down"? Nothing else? What's the point?

I agree. Particularly the Social Chat thread is unnecessary. But so are some of the others that make it cumbersome to find the latest scoop affecting share prices. When posts about analysts' latest reports got transferred today from here to another thread, I and others had to reply there even though our comments were related to share price movements.

 

[Muskol]

TM Blog post on Factory Upgrade:

Factory Upgrade | Blog | Tesla Motors

 

[DaveT]

TM Blog post on Factory Upgrade:

Factory Upgrade | Blog | Tesla Motors

Looks like the factory is at about 1000 cars per week according to the blog post.

 

[Muskol]

Looks like the factory is at about 1000 cars per week according to the blog post.

Also of note:

"In the powertrain department, we’ve added conveyors and advanced robots that have given us the capacity to process 1 million battery cells per day, up from 800,000."

 

[uselesslogin]

TM Blog post on Factory Upgrade:

Factory Upgrade | Blog | Tesla Motors

"Dual Motor Model S now in production"

 

[eepic]

Also of note:

"In the powertrain department, we’ve added conveyors and advanced robots that have given us the capacity to process 1 million battery cells per day, up from 800,000."

Sounded huge... but

1,000,000 / 7,000 = 142.857 (85 kWh) packs per day
142.857 x 7 = 1000 packs per week

Great, but basically just able to support current pipeline... wondering if this affirms cells as the main limiting factors going forward

 

[Robert.Boston]

I can't follow 20 different threads for every tiny topic. What are we supposed to talk about in here then? "Look, the stock went up a point" "oh, now it's back down"? Nothing else? What's the point?

When a discussion gains momentum and it's not closely linked to what might be influencing short-term pricing, I typically move it. E.g., the "is TSLA linked to oil?" is an interesting question but was taking on a long-term focus, rather than providing insight into what might move the price this month or next. I moved the posts to Analyst Reports because that was going off onto an interesting tangent about the Model X delay, which again isn't going to affect short-term prices.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I find it easier to read a cohesive thread rather than having four or six conversations interwoven.

 

[TSLAopt]

When a discussion gains momentum and it's not closely linked to what might be influencing short-term pricing, I typically move it. E.g., the "is TSLA linked to oil?" is an interesting question but was taking on a long-term focus, rather than providing insight into what might move the price this month or next. I moved the posts to Analyst Reports because that was going off onto an interesting tangent about the Model X delay, which again isn't going to affect short-term prices.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I find it easier to read a cohesive thread rather than having four or six conversations interwoven.

i think you're doing a great job, can't always make everyone happy and for the most part I am very happy with what you move out of here to prevent dilution of this thread.

 

[Curt Renz]

When a discussion gains momentum and it's not closely linked to what might be influencing short-term pricing, I typically move it. E.g., the "is TSLA linked to oil?" is an interesting question but was taking on a long-term focus, rather than providing insight into what might move the price this month or next. I moved the posts to Analyst Reports because that was going off onto an interesting tangent about the Model X delay, which again isn't going to affect short-term prices.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but I find it easier to read a cohesive thread rather than having four or six conversations interwoven.

I do appreciate your volunteer work and attentiveness, Robert, but I still disagree. The expected long term share price cannot be separated from the short term. Ideally, the current price should be a reasonably discounted figure from the expected long term price. If there is news that may affect the long term value, it should affect the short term value by a commensurate amount.

Today there was need for an explanation for TSLA moving well down while the other automakers were moving well up. Information was first posted in this thread about a stock analyst at a major firm who published his conjectures as to why the Model X is being delayed. That may have been the explanation for pressure on the stock today. Then the related posts were transferred to another thread. I replied in that other thread that the fate of the falcon wing doors should not really affect the share price, even though such a concern may have weighed on the stock today. The implication was that investors would quite soon recognize the disconnect and bid TSLA back up. But my response was lost to those who follow this thread.

 

[Wenche]

Looks like the factory is at about 1000 cars per week according to the blog post.

Sounds like the 85D production is additional (to me):
"The line is now running at about 1,000 cars a week with the potential for significantly more with minor adjustments. We’ve also been building a new section of the factory for production of Dual Motor Model S. The high efficiency drive unit used in the 85D and P85D is being produced on a highly automated line that is laid out with room to grow so future capacity increases can take place with minimal disruption to existing operations. "

 

[dhrivnak]

Today there was need for an explanation for TSLA moving well down while the other automakers were moving well up. Information was first posted in this thread about a stock analyst at a major firm who published his conjectures as to why the Model X is being delayed. That may have been the explanation for pressure on the stock today. Then the related posts were transferred to another thread. I replied in that other thread that the fate of the falcon wing doors should not really affect the share price, even though such a concern may have weighed on the stock today.

Or it could be due to random variation. We are talking about movements of less than 2%. To me this is like having a discussion on why today was 2 degrees cooler than yesterday. Has global warming stopped and have we entered a cooling phase? Or again is it just random variation?

 

[Curt Renz]

Or it could be due to random variation. We are talking about movements of less than 2%. To me this is like having a discussion on why today was 2 degrees cooler than yesterday. Has global warming stopped and have we entered a cooling phase? Or again is it just random variation?

That's a valid point and it would have been worthy of discussion. The analyst's comment was only one possible explanation for pressure on the share price today. But discussion of it in this thread about share price movements was disrupted after the posts were transferred elsewhere.

 

[MartinAustin]

That's a valid point and it would have been worthy of discussion. The analyst's comment was only one possible explanation for pressure on the share price today. But discussion of it in this thread about share price movements was disrupted after the posts were transferred elsewhere.

I agree with your point... the way to keep it in this forum is to include TSLA short-term movements specifically... that is the kryptonite of the moderators... if they see it, they are powerless to move the post

 

[LakeForest]

Sounds like the 85D production is additional (to me):
We’ve also been building a new section of the factory for production of Dual Motor Model S. The high efficiency drive unit used in the 85D and P85D is being produced on a highly automated line that is laid out with room to grow so future capacity increases can take place with minimal disruption to existing operations. "

I wasn't sure if this was for the general body assembly or motor production. If it is for general body assembly it is highly surprising. I sort of expected them to make dual motor required in the near future so seems sort of odd.

 

[JRP3]

Today there was need for an explanation for TSLA moving well down while the other automakers were moving well up. Information was first posted in this thread about a stock analyst at a major firm who published his conjectures as to why the Model X is being delayed. That may have been the explanation for pressure on the stock today. Then the related posts were transferred to another thread. I replied in that other thread that the fate of the falcon wing doors should not really affect the share price, even though such a concern may have weighed on the stock today. The implication was that investors would quite soon recognize the disconnect and bid TSLA back up. But my response was lost to those who follow this thread.

I'm inclined to agree. This would seem to be the appropriate thread for discussing the short term influence of analysts. We've often discussed analysts in this thread in the past.

 

[jhm]

The Model S is growing more intelligent. Perhaps this is what Musk has be trying to warn us about.

How Tesla Updates Change The Game

Seriously, I like the quiet way this sort of thing is released. Eventually people figure it out and it becomes news. This approach is excellent for word of mouth promotion. I wonder if it will trigger enough buzz to move the stock. Moreover, you can expect more of this to come.

 

[DaveT]

That probably explains it why Deepak and Elon didn't want to answer the question about the current weekly production run rate at the Q3 earning call because the factory was at a stand still as it was being upgraded. Imagine the market reaction that not only did Tesla miss their Q3 guidance (by a little) due to factory retooling, but now in Q4 the factory is at a stand still again due to upgrades. This wouldn't have boded well for TSLA share price IMO since the market only looks short term. In hindsight Elon and Deepak dodged that question very well.

I thought the blog post was detailing the Q3 factory shutdown.