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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Bingo! and overall it's hard not to feel like this is a historic night, possibly Tesla's biggest game changing development to date! electric cars/the auto industry, yeah big potential there over the long run, but given the price and sophistication of what was unveiled tonight with energy storage and the potential scale of applications, the business potential could easily dwarf anything Tesla will ever do with cars and it could happen very rapidly! the presentation tonight missed one of the main things that batteries have to offer the grid. electricity production is made to match consumption but capacity to generate or baseload is essentially constant, meaning the amount of water going through a dam or steam being released from a power plant is remarkably constant because turning up and down the flow is not easy, instead, water/steam bypass turbines during off peak, resulting in tremendous waste. if a utility was able to run all the steam through the turbine, for the same cost in energy consumption, producing constant peak generation potential, now able to store the excess in batteries overnight, the potential in generation capacity is exponential, making it possible to meet growing energy demands without new power plants (renewables aside for the moment) and dramatically cutting the cost per kW of electricity production. this should lead to a glut of electricity in the market. the cost of driving electric among a whole lot of other things, would likely plummet. how many folks go off grid is not the big fish here in the short term, it's how it's suddenly cost effective to capture off peak excess waste!

If the market gets this, the stock price could launch like a space X rocket tomorrow or soon thereafter!

Yes, they leave that part to the system integrators to solve by offering an inverter that matches the specific customer application.

I noticed that a PowerWall module has a DC voltage range of 350-450 V. Same as our model-S battery. To me this looks a setup to allow direct DC fast charge and (much more important) to prepare the setup for our Model-S to also connect into the inverter for Vehicle to (micro-) grid power back-up. Would be the true last missing piece !
 
the presentation tonight missed one of the main things that batteries have to offer

I actually feel Elon gave us a hint towards this. In his mention of 2 billion 100 kW storage systems being what is required for the worldwide grid to become renewable, he refered to cars as an example that we can do it. My guess Elon already has the scenario where a good percentage of these 2 billion grid storage boxes are actually on wheels in his 'even-a-bit-more-secret masterplan. However the vision he shared tonight was already more than enough for this evening.

It will be rewarding in more than one way for me to have a "share" in this vision becomming reality.
 
Powerwall is a compelling product! I've reserved already. I'm tired of going black at my house when the grid goes down, even with a slew of PVs on my roof. At this price point, we have a very attractive product to sell.

Even more importantly, this expansion of demand for batteries will get the fence-sitting Japanese battery subcontractors to finally see the light and join the gigafactory effort.

PS: I also picked up on Elon's "Gigafactory Number One" quote. Yes, there's a reason he used those exact words.
 
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Bingo! and overall it's hard not to feel like this is a historic night, possibly Tesla's biggest game changing development to date! electric cars/the auto industry, yeah big potential there over the long run, but given the price and sophistication of what was unveiled tonight with energy storage and the potential scale of applications, the business potential could easily dwarf anything Tesla will ever do with cars and it could happen very rapidly! the presentation tonight missed one of the main things that batteries have to offer the grid. electricity production is made to match consumption but capacity to generate or baseload is essentially constant, meaning the amount of water going through a dam or steam being released from a power plant is remarkably constant because turning up and down the flow is not easy, instead, water/steam bypass turbines during off peak, resulting in tremendous waste. if a utility was able to run all the steam through the turbine, for the same cost in energy consumption, producing constant peak generation potential, now able to store the excess in batteries overnight, the potential in generation capacity is exponential, making it possible to meet growing energy demands without new power plants (renewables aside for the moment) and dramatically cutting the cost per kW of electricity production. this should lead to a glut of electricity in the market. the cost of driving electric among a whole lot of other things, would likely plummet. how many folks go off grid is not the big fish here in the short term, it's how it's suddenly cost effective to capture off peak excess waste!

If the market gets this, the stock price could launch like a space X rocket tomorrow or soon thereafter!

anyone think this announcement had anything to do with Tesla offering free supercharging? I'll let you guys do the math.
 
My takeaways:

Tesla Energy is a commodity business. As such it is competitive on price only. Some investors do not consider commodity businesses to be attractive investments. The exception to this is when a commodity producer has a low-cost basis and is likely to hold on to this cost distinction (think Dell). The cost structure is the key to the investment attractiveness. It seems that Tesla has achieved low-cost structure for its storage products and it is likely to hold on to this distinction.

Sometimes commodity products can beat their competition due to high-value brand (think Starbucks and, of course, our favourite brand, Tesla)

Tesla Energy is a great diversification. Two different markets, cars and energy storage, have a low correlation, thus allowing Tesla to manage its revenue far better in case of a market downturn in one of the sectors. This de-risks Tesla business and our investments in TSLA.
 
Not Really....A simple math: $500 for 3kwh incremental doesn't mean the average unit price /kwh is $167. Otherwise you can get price for 10kwh is $1670.

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$500 for 3kWh (10kWh - 7kWh). That's $167/kWh. #justsayin
 
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Uncertain.

The other thread specifically devoted to the Missing Piece event seemed to have mixed reaction. The significance of Tesla's new products may take time to realize.

On the other hand, having big name customers like Amazon and Target already lined up sends a big message.

If that's the case it would be the biggest gift to us investors as it would give us time to place more bets. I'm doubling down today even if the stock opens up with a big gap as I think this has a great potential to be a three stage rocket. April 30 event, May 6 ER and a squuuueeeeeze for the big finale.
 
Hello everyone. Sorry to do this, especially if a few others have too. I've just woken up from last night's festivities and would absolutely love to watch the announcement in full. Is there a full video anywhere that's been posted of it? Came straight here to ask without checking anywhere else since I wanted to avoid spoilers. Thanks!
 
Not a bad call...

I'm very excited about tomorrows announcement. For as long as I've been a shareholder (from Sept 14) apart from this month, I've seen only meanderings downwards with slight rises due to 'D' and software upgrades etc.
It took me 24 hours back then to comprehend Tesla's ambition, vision and therefore their quite astonishing potential. I feel this is a fascinating moment - possibly even historic. It is one of EM's goals coming to life; the start of the process of weaning the world off burning the black stuff (which is seriously compelling to most of us who live on this rock) - offering us all the option of saving todays energy for tonight - (I'm not sure exactly how to classify this).
Will the value of Tesla (Motors?) have to be almost completely reassessed on the back of tomorrows announcement? It is a massive unknown, a step into another place. Could this even double the value of the company? (X,3 & gigafactory already priced in, but not this?)
In my opinion the game changer has arrived, even if the fruits are not abundantly with us at this early point. So I'd expect TSLA to potter around the 130-5 mark until Friday lunch time or so and then for the share voltage to go up on one of Elon's rockets when the penny drops and to continue when the (media) news has been fully absorbed over the weekend.

But then messed up my trading strategy with the 2 day delay stock clearing process harking back to the personal delivery of stock certificates and cash and horses leaving me cashless until it clears - aaaahhh gutted - I've been waiting for this for months!
Is there a link to the event when I get back from my long walk? These events are far more important to ponder than my own stupidity.
Thanks Theshadows - got it!
 
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