Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Jayjs20]

I don't think you can be the only person in history to own 2 billion dollar companies if you have poor execution.

 

[sdtslafan]

I don't think you can be the only person in history to own 2 billion dollar companies if you have poor execution.

Mistakes aren't always evident early on. The Model X over-engineering, for instance, is an example of poor execution that will become more and more evident with time. So will this Solar City deal if it goes through. So will speeding up the ramp of the Model 3.

And is it still a record if they both go belly up?

 

[dakh]

Musk Touts SolarCity Deal Synergy, But It May Be About Debt

One of many articles on the web. Do we really want Tesla purchase such a financially precarious company?
From my perspective, Tesla is the best shot we have for a sustainable future. Why take such a huge risk? Especially at a time when Brexit sets up to potential for further economic unrest in Europe which could destabilize the world economy...What happens to demand for $100,000 Tesla's when Europe's economy collapses? Does Tesla want to bear the burden for paying over a billion dollars in debt payments in the next 2 years in a recession while simultaneously building out the gigafactory, tooling for Model 3, and growing the service center base. Elon's last 2 raises at 242 and 215 are in the RED. Forget about going back to the markets for money.

In my view, Elons rash decisions are destroying the company while we shareholders watch it happen in slow motion. Maybe I'll sell my TSLA shares so I can watch this Greek tragedy unfold without such a heavy heart.

So you don't have an original opinion/knowledge, and simply parroting off what others say without applying any critical thinking. There have been other threads on this topic. From what I can tell the SCTY's "debt" we keep hearing about is senior convertible notes. Maybe you can explain better how exactly does this work? Doesn't look like debt to me at all, in fact it looks like depressed SCTY valuation makes this quite a deal for SCTY.

The initial conversion rate for the notes is 11.9720 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes (which is equivalent to an initial conversion price of approximately $83.53 per share). The notes will be convertible at the option of the note holders until the close of business on the second scheduled trading day preceding the maturity date. Conversions of the notes will be settled in shares of the Company's common stock. The last reported sale price of the Company's common stock on September 24, 2014 was $63.04 per share.

In connection with the pricing of the notes, the Company entered into privately negotiated capped call transactions with the initial purchasers and their affiliates (the "counterparties"). Unless the Company elects to settle the capped call transactions in cash, the capped call transactions are expected to offset potential dilution to the Company's common stock upon any conversion of notes. If the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional notes, the Company intends to enter into additional capped call transactions with the counterparties.

I'm not going to respond to the rest of the drivel since it's just as unsubstantiated.

 

[sdtslafan]

So you don't have an original opinion/knowledge, and simply parroting off what others say without applying any critical thinking. There have been other threads on this topic. From what I can tell the SCTY's "debt" we keep hearing about is senior convertible notes. Maybe you can explain better how exactly does this work? Doesn't look like debt to me at all, in fact it looks like depressed SCTY valuation makes this quite a deal for SCTY.



I'm not going to respond to the rest of the drivel since it's just as unsubstantiated.

You're absolutely right. Its not debt, just free money.

Bottom line, a truly great CEO attempts to make their companies great while balancing risk...Elon is a failure in this regard.

 

[dakh]

You're absolutely right. Its not debt, just free money. Were you a Sun Edison investor?

Can we talk about subject matter please? I'm absolutely not the right guy to talk about this but since nobody else here seems to bother here's my interpretation: they issued capped convertible options at $84/share valuation. That would mean single digit percent stock delusion. Now provide your own interpretation or find better analysis or stop spewing nonsense unsupported by facts.

 

[dc_h]

You're absolutely right. Its not debt, just free money.

Bottom line, a truly great CEO attempts to make their companies great while balancing risk...Elon is a failure in this regard.

Why free money? If conversion is $83, no one will exercise post merger until TSLA is $800. I don't think I'll complain if $21 scty is worth over $83 before the bonds expire.

If I missed the point, sorry.

Ps. Let the process take over and keep the scty discussion in one of the many scty threads. Many valid points have been made. No more minds will be changed here until more data is available.

 

[Foghat]

Why free money? If conversion is $83, no one will exercise post merger until TSLA is $800. I don't think I'll complain if $21 scty is worth over $83 before the bonds expire.

If I missed the point, sorry.

Ps. Let the process take over and keep the scty discussion in one of the many scty threads. Many valid points have been made. No more minds will be changed here until more data is available.

Unfortunately, it will continue to rear its ugly head here because the deal's probability directly affects daily tsla trading.

 

[neroden]

So you don't have an original opinion/knowledge, and simply parroting off what others say without applying any critical thinking. There have been other threads on this topic. From what I can tell the SCTY's "debt" we keep hearing about is senior convertible notes.

The notes will be convertible at the option of the note holders

They're convertible at the option of the noteholders. Which also means that the noteholders can choose NOT to convert and demand their money back at maturity. Which they will do unless the stock price goes high.


Convertibles are best considered to be a bond + an option. At the moment the option is out of the money, so they act like a bond.

 

[kelly]

Whenever a deal is not easy to comprehend , walk away.

Maybe two people in the world comprehend what's going on
With this one.

Yeah, but if one of the two is Elon, then I'm voting for it.

 

[geneclean55]

Futures are looking great right now

 

[Runarbt]

How come? Is solar panel practical in Norway where has more than 6 months snowing? Is solar panel practical in China where the rooftop/per family is very limited in apartment buildings. I just want to give two counter examples which turns out to be the #2 and #3 market of Tesla.

Yes, Cold doesnt matter in solar energy. Cold panels produce more than hot panels. As long as they aint covered in snow, they produce very well.

I Guess you need to have a roof, but then same goes to a parking if you are to have a car.

 

[maoing]

Yes, Cold doesnt matter in solar energy. Cold panels produce more than hot panels. As long as they aint covered in snow, they produce very well.

I Guess you need to have a roof, but then same goes to a parking if you are to have a car.

Have you ever installed solar panel on your roof? Do you clean your roof for snow in the winter? How many hours of sunshine in winter of Norway?

 

[Runarbt]

Have you ever installed solar panel on your roof? Do you clean your roof for snow in the winter? How many hours of sunshine in winter of Norway?

Me? Not yet, waiting for Tesla. others have

Google Translate

Wintertime, southern norway lots of sun. Nothern part, little sun but more during summer, up to 24hours sun. it all evens out

The growth is exponential for solar in Norway,

Google Translate

"- It is a myth that we do not have enough sun in Norway to utilize solar energy.Several are now starting to become aware of all the advantages of utilizing this: energy form is reliable, require minimal maintenance, are flexible and have a long life, to name a few, says Holm."

 

[dakh]

They're convertible at the option of the noteholders. Which also means that the noteholders can choose NOT to convert and demand their money back at maturity. Which they will do unless the stock price goes high.


Convertibles are best considered to be a bond + an option. At the moment the option is out of the money, so they act like a bond.

Yes, but you can't have it both ways. Either acquire SCTY for under 3B and potentially have to repay the loans, which would also mean using all this cash for cool 1.6% interest all this time. Or if SCTY was near the money on those options acquisition cost would be over 10B. I think the former is a much, much better deal and repayment isn't anything out of ordinary or something the company won't be able to handle if it actually happens.

 

[MitchJi]

EU commissioner: VW's pay to US owners should apply in Europe, too

As she's done before, European Commission commissioner Elzbieta Bienkowska is saying she wants Volkswagen to treat all of its scandalized diesel customers in the same way. Bienkowska (pictured) said this weekend that whatever VW pays out to US diesel owners is what it should pay to diesel buyers in Europe. A report last week said that VW might pay between $1,000 and $7,000 per car to owners in the US, an amount that could add up to over $10 billion for the half-million affected diesels that were sold here. Affected, of course, means a diesel vehicle into which VW installed illegal software that was designed to trick emissions tests around the world.

VW admitted last year that up to 11 million vehicles could be affected. At even $5,000 per vehicle, that's an awful lot of payout money. $55,000,000,000, in fact. VW has said that it will fix the diesels in Europe but not pay compensation. Bienkowska disagrees.

"Volkswagen should voluntarily pay European car owners compensation that is comparable with that which they will pay US consumers," she said. "Treating consumers in Europe differently than US consumers is no way to win back trust."

 

[Yggdrasill]

Me? Not yet, waiting for Tesla. others have

Google Translate

Wintertime, southern norway lots of sun. Nothern part, little sun but more during summer, up to 24hours sun. it all evens out

The growth is exponential for solar in Norway,

Google Translate

"- It is a myth that we do not have enough sun in Norway to utilize solar energy.Several are now starting to become aware of all the advantages of utilizing this: energy form is reliable, require minimal maintenance, are flexible and have a long life, to name a few, says Holm."

Solar may almost break even in Norway over 30 years or so, if you get very cheap panels from China and do all the work yourself, but that's a far cry from making sense, I'm sad to say.

The challenges in Norway is approximately zero production in December and January, when electricity is at it's most expensive. And then in summer, not only is electricity almost free because the hydro-dams are overflowing, but the sun is also low in the sky and moves across a 270-360 degree portion of the sky, which means that unless you have suntracking panels, the panels are for the most part pointing in the wrong direction.

Solar for the most part really only makes sense for people living between 55 degrees north and 55 degrees south. That's something like 95% of the worlds population, but Norway is not included.

(Although, solar is becoming more popular in Antarctica. Apparently shipping in diesel for diesel generators is extremely expensive.)

 

[TSLADream]

My goodness, I've been following Bloomberg coverage of both Solarcity and tesla for years and they are completely in the tank against both. Cory John is senior editor, thst name ring a bell for anyone out there?

I remember a quarterly earnings came out on Solarcity a year or so back, and Bloomberg did a breaking news bulletin, Solarcity had a loss/share! Solarcity had a loss per share! Big red letters humming on the screen behind the reporter and Cory johnson breaks into soliloquy about the failings of elonnmusk and family. Their coverage is nothing short of short hedge fund propaganda. Again the echo chamber is alive and well with the media on tesla and Solarcity.

Remember too, when warren buffet, a competitor to Solarcity disparages Solarcity by name in an exclusive media interview, you know someone's nipping at their toes. Same goes for fosill fuel centric hedge funds, companies (like the Kochs in Arizona) with regard to Solarcity and tesla in the media.

Again, it is best not to run with Bloomberg news as primary source for due dilligence.

Go to primary sources and reason from there.

Cory Johnson is a big bear on Tesla and Solar City. He is very pessimistic about the market in general. I listen to Bloomberg Advantage on the radio every day. I think he has a personal grudge against Elon. He talks personal when it comes to Tesla. As a reporter, he should keep his personal opinions with himself and get experts opinions. I'm sure these bears will be worried about their short position this year. We may see a short squeeze if Tesla has delivered more than 17K and the earning is break even. Let's wait and see.

 

[Foghat]

Cory Johnson is a big bear on Tesla and Solar City. He is very pessimistic about the market in general. I listen to Bloomberg Advantage on the radio every day. I think he has a personal grudge against Elon. He talks personal when it comes to Tesla. As a reporter, he should keep his personal opinions with himself and get experts opinions. I'm sure these bears will be worried about their short position this year. We may see a short squeeze if Tesla has delivered more than 17K and the earning is break even. Let's wait and see.

This is what tesla is buying in Solarcity and it's very scary to guys like Cory.

The DER pivot: Grid Edge Forum illustrates utility shift toward a distributed grid

We're talking about a complete transformation of our energy system happening right underneath their noses.

DERs = rooftop solar, batteries, and other *customer sided* products like electric cars... Sound familiar to tesla and Solarcity?

When people start to get it, it's already happened...

 

[Foghat]

Solar may almost break even in Norway over 30 years or so, if you get very cheap panels from China and do all the work yourself, but that's a far cry from making sense, I'm sad to say.

The challenges in Norway is approximately zero production in December and January, when electricity is at it's most expensive. And then in summer, not only is electricity almost free because the hydro-dams are overflowing, but the sun is also low in the sky and moves across a 270-360 degree portion of the sky, which means that unless you have suntracking panels, the panels are for the most part pointing in the wrong direction.

Solar for the most part really only makes sense for people living between 55 degrees north and 55 degrees south. That's something like 95% of the worlds population, but Norway is not included.

(Although, solar is becoming more popular in Antarctica. Apparently shipping in diesel for diesel generators is extremely expensive.)

As things iterate and innovate with this tech, solar is just a wavelength of many along the electromagnetic spectrum...

Tesla poached a team of chip architects and execs from AMD to develop the next gen Autopilot

Gallium nitride (gan) substrates market worth over USD 4 billion by 2020 according to new research report - WhaTech

Here today, GaN tomorrow: Military chip tech grants Moore’s law a reprieve

APEC Speaker Highlights: JB Straubel, CTO, Tesla Motors, Inc.

Is SolarCity’s New PV Module the ‘World’s Most Efficient Rooftop Solar Panel’?

Synergies around a GaN substrate... Buying in bulk anyone? Maybe SpaceX satellite internet?

 

[sundaymorning]

European trading shows Tesla at $199.xx. Get ready for a retake of $200. And oh look, another X on the road.