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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Now that production rate has increased, the historical wait times you quoted don't have much relevance. It takes only about 2 weeks for the sea transit from US west coast to China, and add 2 more weeks for customs and other delay. I am leaning towards higher order and delivery rate for China.

Moreover, this disproves the theory that Tesla is making cars just to sell as inventory in stores. They have enough order flow to fill in production.

The inventory sale that you see now are comprised of showroom display, test drive, and some for whom loan approval didn't go through.
Takes more than 2 weeks for sea transit, closer to 4 weeks. Clearing custom and prep for delivery also usually takes longer, like 3 weeks.

BTW I heard from a friend of a friend in China who ordered a XP90D and heard his DS said that this model is currently not being produced due to some parts are being upgraded and Tesla doesn't want him to have a car that was paid top of the line but not top of the line in a few weeks. The DS doesn't know when production of XP90D will resume though. Are XP90D being produced in US now?
 
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I should point out that we can assume that anyone recalling their stock for the vote will make it available to lend again *the day after the vote*. This should cause borrowing rates for shorts to drop quite suddenly as a large amount of stock is put back on the lending market, and that will probably cause a lot of shorts to open new short positions. So I think we are likely to see a post-vote drop in the stock price.

I'm just riding it all out; to a long-term investor it's mostly noise.

Yeh, doing the same, but it sure fun to watch em sweat even if it's only for 24 hours:D
If you guys see a vote triggered squeeze happening, and you are highly confident that the SP will fall after the vote it might make sense to rethink that strategy. If the "squeeze" consists of the SP gradually easing up by $5 or $10 per share then "just riding it all out" probably makes sense.

OTOH if you see a rapid increase after the voting date is announced of (pick a number) $30-$150 , or more :D "just riding it all out" because " I'm a long-term investor" is probably a very foolish decision. Why not sell your shares near the peak and repurchase them when it dips or at least buy some puts?!

I'm not positive if the vote recall will trigger a substantial squeeze will happen, or if it does the magnitude of the squeeze, but if it does happen, and because we know the date in advance it, seems foolish to just sit on our hands and watch while a possibly epic opportunity happens under our noses.

I'm not recommending anyone do any trading around this event. I am recommending educating yourselves, and mentally preparing (by being at least open to the possibility) to take advantage of this if it turns out to be a big opportunity.
 
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When will journalists finally acknowledge that there is no investigation into Tesa vehicles or AutoPilot. An inquiry is not the same thing as an investigation!

Accident 1 happened because a truck made an illegal turn. Also, there is reason to believe the driver was watching a movie instead of watching the road.

Accident 2 happened because a vehicle was illegally semi-parked on the left side of a highway. The driver admits his hands were not on the wheel and that he was not paying attention to the road.

In neither case is there any reason to believe AutoPilot didn't act as designed. Also, there is no reason to believe both accidents would not have happened if AutoPilot was not active.

This is almost a complete repeat of the BS that happened when a Model S drove over a 3 pronged trailer hitch.
 
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When will journalists finally acknowledge that there is no investigation into Tesa vehicles or AutoPilot. An inquiry is not the same thing as an investigation!
Seconds before they realise the meaning of terms like inquiry, investigation, research etc. Which will occur the day after Satan skates across Hell. (OK, exaggerating a tiny bit there. IANAJ ;) )
 
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If you guys see a vote triggered squeeze happening, and you are highly confident that the SP will fall after the vote it might make sense to rethink that strategy. If the "squeeze" consists of the SP gradually easing up by $5 or $10 per share then "just riding it all out" probably makes sense.

OTOH if you see a rapid increase after the voting date is announced of (pick a number) $30-$150 , or more :D "just riding it all out" because " I'm a long-term investor" is probably a very foolish decision. Why not sell your shares near the peak and repurchase them when it dips or at least buy some puts?!

I'm not positive if the vote recall will trigger a substantial squeeze will happen, or if it does the magnitude of the squeeze, but if it does happen, and because we know the date in advance it, seems foolish to just sit on our hands and watch while a possibly epic opportunity happens under our noses.

I'm not recommending anyone do any trading around this event. I am recommending educating yourselves, and mentally preparing (by being at least open to the possibility) to take advantage of this if it turns out to be a big opportunity.

This is why a (sudden) squeeze won't happen. Even the faithful have itchy sell fingers.
 
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Takes more than 2 weeks for sea transit, closer to 4 weeks. Clearing custom and prep for delivery also usually takes longer, like 3 weeks.

BTW I heard from a friend of a friend who ordered a XP90D and heard his DS said that this model is currently not being produced due to some parts are being upgraded and Tesla doesn't want him to have a car that was paid top of the line but not top of the line in a few weeks. The DS doesn't know when production of XP90D will resume though. Are XP90D being produced in US now?

Let us take this delay in your friends 'top end' X and combine it with the electrek article by Fred L:

***** The delay is because TM wants to put the new AP 2.0 hardware into their 'top end' X. They do not want someone paying north of $140K to turn around and two weeks later have last year's AP 1.0.

Fire away;)
 
Let us take this delay in your friends 'top end' X and combine it with the electrek article by Fred L:

***** The delay is because TM wants to put the new AP 2.0 hardware into their 'top end' X. They do not want someone paying north of $140K to turn around and two weeks later have last year's AP 1.0.

Fire away;)
I actually agree with this reasoning. I think non-US buyers have the most to lose with major hardware upgrades since the gap between order and receipt is so long. Wouldn't be much fun to receive an "old" car 5 weeks after everyone has been enjoying the "new" version. I'm guessing Tesla is willing to drop strong hints to such buyers (esp. PDL buyers).

I'll stick with my guess of new hardware coming in about 3 weeks (unannounced) followed by a late Sept reveal.
 
Let us take this delay in your friends 'top end' X and combine it with the electrek article by Fred L:

***** The delay is because TM wants to put the new AP 2.0 hardware into their 'top end' X. They do not want someone paying north of $140K to turn around and two weeks later have last year's AP 1.0.

Fire away;)
It could be. But my friend also said Chinese SP90D buyers haven't experienced this kinda stuff. So it might be X specific parts. Or Tesla had an easier time to upgrade the S than the X, which is also very likely.
 
TM and SpaceX staff get their '3s' first....So, they are beta testing them for the rest of us
And a car that's designed from the ground up to be easy to build should be much easier to build without a lot of problems.
I certainly hope the mind-blowing stuff comes sooner rather than later! I'm wondering what exactly the next steps are for AP - as in, what can be enhanced right now, before moving up a level in autonomy (which will require regulator input, etc.)?

- 8.0 is supposed to have cross-traffic monitoring and off-ramp capabilities
- red light and stop sign capabilities?
- enhanced summon, e.g., ability to exit garage, turn, etc. and meet you in the driveway as Elon suggested?
- ability to "learn" a sequence, e.g., parking a certain way in a garage

What else can be done prior to full autonomy?
I believe that Tesla intends to:
1. Roll out full autonomy, as a massively improved AP, probably with the redundant HW on board.

2. Continue to collect the data and improve the SW as they are currently doing via OTA updates. IMO the capacity to use OTA to make updates will be a key advantage.

3. When they are satisfied with the quality and have the data to back it up they will apply for regulatory approval.

In other words the only limitations I see in terms of "what can be enhanced right now" are the HW in the cars and the quality of their current SW. So as soon as the "mind-blowing" SW is ready we might see it, but I think they will upgrade the HW first.
 
Wow, only 1.7 million shares traded today. That is a very, very big deal. I just checked and this is the lowest volume in over a year except for Christmas week. The snake is coiling in a major way right now and getting ready for a significant move. Which direction will it strike?

The moment the merger is finalized Tesla will be a huge move. Too many people have bought into the BS story that SolarCity is being bailed out, and fail to recognize the value SolarCity will add to Tesla when they merge.

Why have the Mods allowed there to be 2 or 3 threads on here that explicitly incorrectly state SolarCity is being bailed out?
 
The moment the merger is finalized Tesla will be a huge move. Too many people have bought into the BS story that SolarCity is being bailed out, and fail to recognize the value SolarCity will add to Tesla when they merge.

Why have the Mods allowed there to be 2 or 3 threads on here that explicitly incorrectly state SolarCity is being bailed out?
1. Will that day fall in q3? I doubt it.

2. Good question. I hadn't noticed, but then again, I'm not a Mod.
 
Death of the BMW 3 Series. 2016 is on track to be worse than 1999

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AkAB_St8j6-LY8EGmelXeUjc2TBxD-RMkGhgbImb308UNwx7cbY2rWiRzOoYKwMhpZHQyyKCbmhlK2b3AZjSfhDSdT3K6lvInAuBQCjuEm4PaggI_9twog6T1chBJOoG6FRWCy7r


http://seekingalpha.com/article/3998904-anti-tesla-bmw-commercials-explained-one-chart (Self Promotion)
 
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