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No, it's a different one. The one in your link the customer is still paying money for the upgrade, just less than what the official website advertises, and the car they bought are still custom build. The one I'm talking about is for pre-built Model S75 selling at 60 price. Customer gets totally free upgrade to 75.
yesterday my friend was just came back from Beijing said he saw many Tesla cars in Beijing everyday.
I see more of them in the region where I live in Beijing than I do in Santa Barbara area.
I would expect sales scenarios like this in N. America during Q4 as well.
I should clarify that I have been continuing to add shares fairly aggressively to my long-term holdings. I strongly believe Tesla's shares are significantly undervalued and the long-term trend is going to be sharply upward. Just hard to predict exactly when that will happen.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
This sounds inconsistent with Tesla's direct-sales model where cars are ordered online and there is none of the haggling and other unpleasantness associated with dealerships.
Unless Tesla is doing things differently in China, I would not expect them to be running promotions that sound like the Honda Summer Clearance Event (the Honda dealer I bought my Civic from says they can put me in a NEW Accord or CR-V for less than I pay monthly for my Civic, an offer at which I LOL, given that my monthly payment is $0 and has been for several years).
COGS matters less than trying to meet the published guidance numbers. Q3 is going to be a record but Q4 has to be the same record sales plus 50% (ie. 20k-30k or maybe 21k-29k).
In the US people have been able to buy showroom cars at a discount long before Tesla officially launched their own CPO program and then inventory sales program. Tesla US is also waiving the destination fee if you ask them but this promotion is not publicized on the website.
And Tesla China has been doing things a bit differently since 2014. They tried to sell custom built but canceled cars (mainly due to scalpers) on Taobao, but shortly ended it and the head of Tesla China at that time left soon. They run a publicized promotion on trade-in with ICE that gives a discount up to $1500 last year and recently started this again.
Tesla runs direct-sales model, yes. But that doesn't mean they don't wiggle every now and then, here and there.
Oh yes I definitely agree on the delivery number weights more. I'm just saying, if the GM is significantly lower, it won't end up good. Gladly these heavily discounted inventory should not take up a large portion of the total, and we also have the P100D to help on overall GM.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Talk here will have zero or close to zero effect on the stock price. Although there are some very wealthy people here, I would say that in aggregate, the shares held and traded by members at TMC are insignificant compared to the power of the Force.
Many of us are just being realistic. Tesla has given fantastic guidance for several years and either failed to deliver on that guidance or been very late on delivery. Market participants are not going to get excited over big talk because many don't believe it anymore.
If Tesla does succeed at some point and Model 3 and Tesla Energy start raking in the cash, the stock price will likely blast upwards at a very rapid pace, as Apple did between the launch of iPhone 4 and iPhone 5 (roughly 2010-2012). By then, people will be scrambling to get on board an accelerating train and most will be left behind. I don't expect much movement outside the present range (180-280, with a center around 230) in the next year unless car deliveries and Tesla Energy somehow result in a very good financial report within the next 6 months.
Not a new idea on my part:
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
I am painfully long. As I said in this post since I don't know when the price will adjust upward I am positioned to hold throughout.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Yeah, I knew that people could get showroom cars at a discount, but that's to be expected. It's not really a new car if a lot of people have either test driven it, or put their grubby paws on the touch screen, or opened and closed the doors an uncountable number of times.
It would not surprise me though if Tesla did things differently in China than it does in the U.S. though. Different country, different expectations. I am skeptical of rumors though. I see many Apple rumors over the course of the year, a significant percentage of which turn out to be untrue.
There is a lot of angst here and SP today, and many days. Many of the reasons suggested, and some invented by people for whatever reason who hate Tesla and everything about it, mirror a truly hilarious post today on National Geographic about why Florida is weird. Substitute the stock market for Florida while reading the following for a laugh when you are sad today.
Florida Man Explains His State's Weirdness
Of course the same could be said of my beloved home state California.
Panic at LA airport came after police detained man dressed as Zorro - The Boston Globe
Florida Man Explains His State's Weirdness
Of course the same could be said of my beloved home state California.
Panic at LA airport came after police detained man dressed as Zorro - The Boston Globe
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Today's trading reveals strong clues on what's going on. The deep dips followed by near recoveries are indicative of shorts selling in. Their likely goal is pushing TSLA below the 220 support level and 50dma and seeing if longs start selling, seeing if they can get a cascade of stop-loss sales triggered. What we're seeing instead is that some longs are acquiring today, with a view that TSLA is a good long-term bet, and the deep dips aren't getting much traction. Once the SP rose to 217, you've seen some short-selling to keep the SP slightly below 217, and thus the relatively-flat trading near 217 for the moment. I would say shorts are sharing the frustration of today's trading because they aren't so far getting the desired effect of breaching 220.
When you have nearly 400k model 3 reservations on hand, constant monitoring of minor demand fluctuations for higher priced SX is almost comical.
The real short term concern, that we should care about is how is production ramping. 2k/week is good. 2.2k/week or better is fantastic, which I think is what is happening right now.
The real short term concern, that we should care about is how is production ramping. 2k/week is good. 2.2k/week or better is fantastic, which I think is what is happening right now.
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