-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Some of those birds COULD be the 2018 note holders who noticed early conversion for $411 million in face value. The notices had to be between 7/1 and 8/5. If it were towards the end of that window, it might mean the hedges (if any) related to the 20 trading day VWAP valuation period are coming off. The last possible day for the VWAP is this Friday. Holders who gave notice would probably sell the shares (up to 1.5 million) they receive in exchange for their notes. (If they were interested in staying invested in TSLA common shares, they would not have given conversion notices.)
Other chirping birds COULD be equity holders who were displeased by the Musk/Rive purchase of $100 million of the $124 million in SCTY 18 month notes.
IF either were part of the reason for today's decline it may take the market several days to sort out.
Screw it, I'm buying. If you're long, and you believe in what they're doing, then it's going to go up again and this will look like a fire sale of a deal.
a 0.2k/week production increase is only 2% of what is needed for the 500k/year production goal next year. But 0.2k/week lack of natural demand represents 10% of the current situation. I would say it carries a lot more weight in the short term.
The latest secondary offering was at around $215, was oversubscribed and according to Ron Baron institutions offered more than Musk was willing to take. The price level at which it might take Market to sort out the above could be the $215.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Not yet. Wait for RSI below 30, which is safer entry point.
Well, in the course of today shares available to borrow for shorting at Fidelity went down from 224,313 at 10:00am to 181,416 now, a 42,897 drop. Looks like there was significant shorting activity today.
SunCatcher
Member
Well, you could try the old "Buy high, and sell low" routine. Or, you could do like some of the rest of us, and just hang on for the ride. Or, like others have said, maybe consider it as an opportunity to add to your position. Today's action is nothing new; like the rise and fall of the tides.
Shares available to short went down further by an additional 8K (for a total drop of 50,897 shares), to 173,416 shares available in the last half hour of trading.
Already technically more oversold than its been in a very long time. Today looks like a DOJI and a test of long term support. There was zero news today to cause today's move.
NO, historically RSI < 30 is the safe entry point which almost guarantee you make profit in next a couple of months or so. The scary part of today is big drop without news, you never know sth. bad could have happened.
Your comment is wrong, misleading, and doesn't actually mean anything. You may as well have posted the following:
"I think the stock could go down tomorrow. Or maybe it could go up? Maybe something happened today we don't know about? Or maybe not. Best act on the side of caution and wait until everything is obvious and clear before buying. The stock could be oversold. Or maybe it isn't?
I get your negative viewpoint. However, do you agree that there is a finite possibility that production has grown by leaps and bounds, and as a result you get to hear the rumors about promotions?
A major piece of information that you should consider is that people are getting their cars about a week earlier than promised. We know that Tesla is quite aggressive with their deadlines, so I don't think it is sandbagging of delivery dates. My guess is that production has picked up significantly, with no let up or stoppage.
I am all ears to know about current production run rate, if anybody here knows or have an estimate on it.
Last edited:
The very clear decline in short shares available at Fidelity, as reported by vgrinshpun, tells the big story today. Shorts re-entered TSLA in a big way to try and get some traction because TSLA dipped below the 220 support level. One need not dream up fears of unknown events, the short attack was the event that spurred other shorts to join in.
Last edited:
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Could have. But how likely is it that something has been detected by the general market, but apparently undetected by anyone on TMC.
Oh yes most def. Production capacity certainly increased a lot this year compared to last year. Just like last year compared to the year before last year. I also think their COGS decreased as a result and they can bear with some unprecedented promotions/discounts they are running without hurting GM that much. Nevertheless, I do think natural demand didn't increase enough, or relatively capped, before the increase in production capacity. So they need to run the promotion/discount to turn the excess production capacity into revenue. Not as lucrative as without the discounts, but additional revenue.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
