Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[brian45011]

I did not see any fixed date mentioned anyway,

There will likely be several iterations of the S-4 (because of inter-actions with the SEC) before the blanks are filled in.

Contact your Dutch broker about voting; there is likely a month or more before the record date is known and the meeting (voting) will likely be weeks after the record date.

 

[Lessmog]

I feel kind of left out in the dark here. Have you guys gotten an email about the merger vote? From whom? How, did you ask for specific merger information somehow? Is it available through other channels?

I've been reloading my maibox for half an hour -- nothing yet!

 

[schonelucht]

But at some point the system crashes if the number of Model S and Model X taxis using unlimited pre-paid Supercharging becomes too big.

This was an issue in Amsterdam where a supercharger site was quite close to the airport out of which 200 Tesla taxis operate. The taxis crowded out regular users, especially around shift change (the drivers had to return the taxis fully charged for the next driver)

 

[vgrinshpun]

There will likely be several iterations of the S-4 (because of inter-actions with the SEC) before the blanks are filled in.

Contact your Dutch broker about voting; there is likely a month or more before the record date is known and the meeting (voting) will likely be weeks after the record date.

What do you think triggered timing of S-4 filing? Is there any significance to the timing?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Doesn't the fact that both parties agreed on a Merger (as of Aug 31) means that go shop provision was terminated early, i.e. before the Sep 15 date set originally?

There are too many portions of the document to cite. However, the overall filing very clearly states that a number of factors, including a superior offer, regulatory approval by the DOJ and FTC, and a number of other factors could theoretically prevent the merger from happening. Also, unless I'm reading this wrong, it also states SolarCity is still able to "shop around" but would have to pay Tesla a penalty If another offer is accepted. Too many pages to read this early in the morning.

I suspect the deal was guaranteed to happen from the beginning, but both companies had to go through the proper procedures to avoid any complaints by shareholders, or outside parties, and to explain the DD that took place prior to the vote.

 

[vgrinshpun]

There are too many portions of the document to cite. However, the overall filing very clearly states that a number of factors, including a superior offer, regulatory approval by the DOJ and FTC, and a number of other factors could theoretically prevent the merger from happening. Also, unless I'm reading this wrong, it also states SolarCity is still able to "shop around" but would have to pay Tesla a penalty If another offer is accepted. Too many pages to read this early in the morning.

Ok, I missed the part about superior offer.
Incidentally, why the "Dislike" for a good faith question?

EDIT: Here is specific wording about the Go-Shop indicating that it is still active until Sep 14:


SolarCity Go-Shop (Page 123)　


At any time prior to September 14, 2016 (the " Go-Shop Period "), SolarCity may initiate, solicit and encourage any inquiry or the making of any proposal or offer that constitutes an Acquisition Proposal (as defined in page 124), including by making available information (including non-public information and data) and other access to the person making such Acquisition Proposal pursuant to a customary confidentiality agreement and participate in discussions with respect to any Acquisition Proposals and and a written summary of the material terms of any Acquisition Proposal not made in writing.cooperate with any such discussions or any attempt to make any Acquisition Proposals.　


No later than two business days after the conclusion of the Go-Shop Period, SolarCity must notify Tesla in writing of the identity of any person from whom it has received an Acquisition Proposal prior to the conclusion of the Go-Shop Period, and provide a copy of any Acquisition Proposal made in writing


and a written summary of the material terms of any Acquisition Proposal not made in writing.

 

[anon]

The SEC filing says that Tesla will need to raise financing again by the end of the year.

Tesla (TSLA) says it’s currently planning another round of financing for Model 3 and Gigafactory

 

[AlMc]

There will likely be several iterations of the S-4 (because of inter-actions with the SEC) before the blanks are filled in.

Contact your Dutch broker about voting; there is likely a month or more before the record date is known and the meeting (voting) will likely be weeks after the record date.

Brian: I apologize if I missed your thoughts on the short squeeze hypothesis......What are your thoughts on the probability of such an occurrence? Thanks Al

edit: Not only the probability but the timing.......Thanks

 

[davecolene0606]

Go shop ends Sept 14, so,the 20 day notification fits that.

No notification of the vote by email here either. Usually I been notified by mail with proxy notices and such.

My hope is that this will extend Solarcity to states with no current offering e.g. Florida, where in the past lack of state incentives/laws prevented Solarcity from doing business.

I want my damn power wall already!

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I feel kind of left out in the dark here. Have you guys gotten an email about the merger vote? From whom? How, did you ask for specific merger information somehow? Is it available through other channels?

I've been reloading my maibox for half an hour -- nothing yet!

Who were you expecting an email from? Also, it's ~2 hours before the market opens. Most brokers are probably just waking up or are heading to work now.

 

[brian45011]

I feel kind of left out in the dark here. Have you guys gotten an email about the merger vote? From whom? How, did you ask for specific merger information somehow? Is it available through other channels?

I've been reloading my maibox for half an hour -- nothing yet!

Try the link in message 29998 above.

 

[brian45011]

Can someone please give an ouline. What is important?.

If you want to try doing a little of your own assessment of whether the merger is beneficial to TSLA-only shareholders, start with the Evercore Analysis on beginning on p78. (it's rife with exculpatory disclaimers)

 

[Lessmog]

Try the link in message 29998 above.

Thanks, I thought I already did. But people mentioned unspecified emails "Yup, it's up" and "300 pages" so I jumped to the conclusion it was something other than the 10-Q from 5 Aug.

Apparently it was something else.

Sorry for any contribution to the confusion! Helpful is better...

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

The SEC filing says that Tesla will need to raise financing again by the end of the year.

Tesla (TSLA) says it’s currently planning another round of financing for Model 3 and Gigafactory

In other words, Tesla need to raise capital before the end of the year to accelerate production to meet HIGH DEMAND. Furthermore, one of the main reasons the stock has fallen over the past few weeks was probably due to the convertible senior notes.

Panasonic has explicitly stated it will make as much capital available to Tesla as Tesla needs. I'm positive Tesla also has other partners who are prepared to make cash available to Tesla if/when it is needed, and likely with very favorable terms.

Also, Tesla probably has to say it might not get favors terms to comply with disclosure rules since it is a potential risk.

 

[winfield100]

If Tesla is capable of increasing its production rate beyond current demand, then I suggest local advertising in metropolitan areas outside of California, rather than some of the promotional methods being mentioned here.

respectfully disagree. I am fairly sure there are presently more folks aware than you realize. even Tesla was surprised by the number of reservations for the model 3, and this was folks willing to put down $1,000 in the US. I was startled at my retirement dinner by someone extremely enthusiastic to buy, but no reservation, (washington DC, usa area) and about 60-70 folks at 2 different presentations in Kansas City Missouri, USA who just wanted to know. there is a lot of 'hidden' aspirational desire. I also suspect changes in the supercharger model may be a "commons" problem. It is presently a free for all, with 'rules' ignored written or unwritten and as they are abused, the unwritten rules will be made more formal and minor sanctions enforced (pay) so the "commons" can continue to be sustainable

 

[brian45011]

Brian: I apologize if I missed your thoughts on the short squeeze hypothesis......What are your thoughts on the probability of such an occurrence? Not only the probability but the timing.......Thanks

No se. Perception could become reality, but if it occurs it will have a very short half-life and the options market will be the place to gamble.
My guess is the record date is likely within several weeks on either side of Halloween. Interestingly, SCTY and TSLA are on different CBOE cycles for monthlies.

 

[Lessmog]

Who were you expecting an email from? Also, it's ~2 hours before the market opens. Most brokers are probably just waking up or are heading to work now.

Well, as I explained later, I got the impression some people had gotten something in their MAILBOX ...

And since it seems we are both based in Europe, our brokers might have been up and bright before lunch?

Let's leave it at that and see what happens.

 

[Drax7]

The SEC filing says that Tesla will need to raise financing again by the end of the year.

Tesla (TSLA) says it’s currently planning another round of financing for Model 3 and Gigafactory

For Tesla to dare ask for more financing , would imply that they are doing well.
Especially after missing q1 and q2 and then force feeding us with this merger.

It should signify that production is settled and demand is there.
This is a straw in the wind , Just a hunch , that this quarter
Will not disappoint again.

 

[Lessmog]

For Tesla to dare ask for more financing , would imply that they are doing well.
Especially after missing q1 and q2 and then force feeding us with this merger.

It should signify that production is settled and demand is there.
This is a straw in the wind , Just a hunch , that this quarter
Will not disappoint again.

Hey, Drax, be careful -- that last paragraph reads almost like a haiku

 

[winfield100]

The pay-as-you-go supercharging makes sense for a lot of customers, but "free long distance travel" is also a powerful marketing message for Tesla. To have both, I suspect Tesla is going to go to three tiered system such as:

1) Pay As You Go
2) Free Supercharging* (*up to a limit)
3) Free Supercharging Max* (up to a really high limit)

Pay as you go will have the highest rate (e.g. $0.20/kWh) but you won't be paying for power you don't use. There won't be tacky credit card machines at the chargers, but rather if you show up without credits you can use the App to buy some.

Regular "free supercharging" will cost less than $2000 because it excludes heavy users. It might be $1000 for up to 1000 kWh/year. So it's a good deal for moderate users and will be subsidized by light users that still like the simplicity of having charging for the life of the car.

Even the upper tier will have a limit because folks that supercharge regularly still don't want to pay sky high prices because of daily charging taxi's. Tesla likely has little desire to cater to the upper 1% of Supercharger users, so they'll set a cap of about 5000 kWh/year. As both the "light" and "max" packages won't truly be unlimited, beyond the cap it'll be pay-as-you-go at a rate a bit less than option #1.

All of this will only apply for new cars. Base S will drop $2000 and won't have included supercharging. Mid and upper range cars will have the medium package as standard.

a few years back, there was a published study of charging at work, free vs pay (6 year study, links presently lost) they determined that about 20% greater cost than home cost took care of the freeloaders/abusers (i think cleantechnica had a copy).