Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[davecolene0606]

Fine by me, keep poking the bear Chanos. Elon isn't afraid to respond in kind.

Thats one of Elon's many admirable traits and it sure does add to the entertainment value eh?

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I'll try one more time to explain a different way:

1) There's no point for GM to build a network of thousands of DC fast charge stations until their EV fleet grows. They are just starting to sell Bolt this year

Agree?

Agree?

Potentially going in circles. Not enough cars to build a network leads to lower demand. Lower demand leaves to lack of charging network.
If this is what GM is thinking its very short sighted.

 

[esk8mw]

Thats one of Elon's many admirable traits and it sure does add to the entertainment value eh?

Let's just say I look forward to the day where Elon causes Chanos to write a letter to his investors trying to explain away a -20% quarterly performance as a blip caused by irrational Tesla investors and that the long-term strategy is sound.

 

[neroden]

Just issued from Schwab this evening. Trust me, you don't see percentage changes like this very often in these emails:

The consensus earnings estimate for this quarter Increased by 945.71% from $0.0035 to $0.04 and the annual decreased by 33.69% from $-0.56 to $-0.75.

I tend to think of "consensus earnings estimates" as like the Emperor of China's Nose fallacy, as described by Feynman.

This question of trying to figure out whether a book is good or bad by looking at it carefully or by taking the reports of a lot of people who looked at it carelessly is like this famous old problem: Nobody was permitted to see the Emperor of China, and the question was, What is the length of the Emperor of China’s nose? To find out, you go all over the country asking people what they think the length of the Emperor of China’s nose is, and you average it. And that would be very “accurate” because you averaged so many people. But it’s no way to find anything out; when you have a very wide range of people who contribute without looking carefully at it, you don’t improve your knowledge of the situation by averaging.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Let's just say I look forward to the day where Elon causes Chanos to write a letter to his investors trying to explain away a -20% quarterly performance as a blip caused by irrational Tesla investors and that the long-term strategy is sound.

IF Knowing to be true that SCTY would be such a terrible acquisition for TSLA wouldn't one think Chanos, huge short seller, would champion this fatal move. Why is he warning anyone, especially Tesla investors, to this end game? I feel bad for the weak TSLA investor out there that haven't dived into TSLA in great depth. Understandable people have freedom of speech and press etc. but the lack of responsibility is awful in the Internet world where everyone and their mother blogs/writes a clickbate article.

 

[DaveT]

Leaving the macro environment aside, today's major news in the EV world is GM's announcement that the Bolt will have an EPA rating of 238 miles. While pricing hasn't been finalized, Electrek.co reports that the price is expected to be under $37,500. However, we don't know what the various options (like active safety features) will cost.

As far as impact on Tesla, I expect the Bolt as presently configured to be minimal competition.

The Bolt is a different class of vehicle than Tesla's Model 3. The Bolt is essentially a Subcompact Crossover, with overall dimensions similar to the Chevy Trax and Honda HR-V. It has plenty of room inside, as one would expect from a crossover, but it is a car heavily weighted more towards utility than looks and performance. People have noted that the Bolt looks very similar to a Honda Fit. The Bolt, like the Fit, is a car that people buy for utility, not looks.

Second, the performance envelopes of the Bolt and Model 3 are likely to be very different. While the Bolt has good 0-60 acceleration of roughly 6.9 seconds (comparable to a Honda Civic EX-T), its top speed is 91 MPH. This is more than good enough for everyday driving, but not enough for performance minded buyers, even if top speed is somewhat meaningless in the real world North American market.

The range/charging situation for the Bolt is different as well. GM's website states that the 240V charger charges at 25 miles per hour, with a full charge taking 9.5 hours. DC fast charging is rated up to 90 miles in 30 minutes. For long-distance trips, this is obviously much less convenient than the Tesla Supercharger network, and that assumes availability of DC fast charging for the Bolt along similar routes. The network matters a lot here. Bolt's tall Crossover form will make highway efficiency drop quickly at higher speeds.

So what is the Bolt? Basically a Super LEAF. It will likely be a superb practical commuter car for transporting people and cargo, and provide a nice driving experience. However, despite its 238 mile range, its low charging rate and charging network quality are going to be issues.

I would expect that some market participants might view the Bolt as a threat to Tesla, but looking at the overall car market, the Bolt occupies a very different space than Model 3. Any comparison between the Bolt and Model 3 would be roughly analogous to a comparison between the Honda HR-V and a BMW 3-series.

All this is true... the Model 3 will be a much better car than the Bolt.

However, the Bolt is big news because of what it signifies. Tesla is no longer the sole manufacturer of long-range EVs. GM has made a somewhat affordable long-range EV, which means basically now anyone can do it. This signifies a lot of manufacturers will be getting into the long-range EV market... sure it might take a few years, but they'll come.

Also, the Bolt is significant because GM (w/help of LG) has packed a 60kWh battery at a cell cost of ONLY $8700 ($145/kWh x 60kWh). And this cost is projected to go done significantly in several years. Note: LG, Samsung, and BYD are and will be making their own large gigafactories to also bring down costs further.

Some have noted that LG is providing some tech, and I think that only even more good news for other manufacturers. Since LG probably won't want to charge a premium because they're more interested in growing the overall EV market. So, I imagine LG is selling their other tech (ie., pack-related) at a very, very low cost so that it can attract auto makers and grow their battery business.

As a TSLA investor, I think it's wise not to discount the Bolt and its significance. The Bolt will likely only get better and maybe cheaper over time. And GM and other car makers will be releasing new and better models in the future as well.

Yes, the Bolt won't sell hundreds of thousands of cars right away. That's not the point. For GM, they don't NEED the Bolt to succeed right now. They're planting the seed. It's actually probably smarter to start out selling a smaller number of units to make sure quality is good and to grow demand from there. I'd expect 30-50k cars/year for the first year and then for demand to grow from there if two things happen: 1) if GM can continue to improve the Bolt, 2) they can incrementally lower cost, 3) more long distance charging becomes available.

What does this all mean for Tesla? Well, the Model 3 will do well if it's a great car. Also, the Bolt is in a different market segment than the Model 3. But what it does mean for Tesla is that the competition is coming. It's only a matter of time before we get some great luxury EVs that compete w/Tesla. The days of Tesla having the monopoly on long-range EVs is over. Now Tesla needs to compete more fiercely on performance, value, and other factors.

Congrats, GM. I look forward to test driving the Bolt soon.

Tesla, let's up your game. No more execution mistakes, delays and misses.

 

[brantse]

I kind of disagree with point 1. It worked for Tesla because there was no long range alternative. For GM, they are competing with someone who has a SC network. As an EV buyer, I have to be convinced by GM to overlook Tesla's advantage here. On that basis alone I'd never buy a Bolt so they never have the opportunity to capture me as a buyer who will patiently wait for the chance to drive it more than 100 miles in one direction without sweating profusely or slow charging.

Although most of us will agree, we're much more aware and informed about what long distance EV trips require. Unfortunately, I think many Bolt buyers will remain ignorant of this fact until they later learn how much of a PITA taking a road trip really ends up being. Regardless, the number of Bolts GM anticipates building (25-50k) will sell easily and remain unnoticeable to Tesla.

 

[TMSE]

Is it any surprise that Jim Chanos is talking his books? If he is sure of further downside to TSLA, he would keep quiet and short more. It looks like he wants to exit his position before the delivery numbers are released in a couple of weeks.

 

[luca]

BOLT is only 164inch long!!!!!!!!

Which is only 2inch longer than TOYOTA　ＹＡＲＩＳ

Who will spend 37.5K to buy base yaris even without long distance ability!!!!!!!!!

 

[esk8mw]

BOLT is only 164inch!!!!!!!!

Which is only 2inch longer than TOYOTA　ＹＡＲＩＳ

Who will spend 37.5K to buy base yaris even without long distance ability!!!!!!!!!

Seriously?? That's a tiny car. Very very tiny. I thought all the focus was on utility and that's why they had to make it look like...that. People expect to pay $15k for cars of that size.

 

[racer26]

A The days of Tesla having the monopoly on long-range EVs is over. Now Tesla needs to compete more fiercely on performance, value, and other factors.

So... All the things that Tesla is already thrashing the competition that doesn't even exist yet on.

MS P100D is already outperforming the rumored specs of the 2018 Porsche offering.

I'd be willing to bet that a TM3 Pxx(x?)D will outperform a BMW M3 on every metric.

I'm all for tempering expectations, and lauding the arrival of another >200mi EV offering. But I don't think very much of the demand for Tesla products is purely because they had a de facto monopoly on 200mi EVs. Elon's entire ethos and plan for Tesla's success recognized that people don't buy EVs just because they're EVs, but rather, because they're practical and present a good value proposition.

Compared to MS, Bolt looks like a decent value, but compared to M3, it looks like amateur hour. Never mind that even if the demand existed (which GM and LG are proving that they are wholly unconvinced of), they couldn't produce them in high enough volume to compete with M3.

 

[luca]

Seriously?? That's a tiny car. Very very tiny. I thought all the focus was on utility and that's why they had to make it look like...that. People expect to pay $15k for cars of that size.

YES toyota corolla is 183inch long

Who is stupid enough to spend 37.5k buy this crap at base trim?

37.5k you can buy top trim 7 seats ICE SUV

 

[cziegler]

From the Borowitz Report (link tweeted by Elon today):

The research, conducted by the University of Minnesota, identifies a virulent strain of humans who are virtually immune to any form of verifiable knowledge, leaving scientists at a loss as to how to combat them.

“These humans appear to have all the faculties necessary to receive and process information,” Davis Logsdon, one of the scientists who contributed to the study, said. “And yet, somehow, they have developed defenses that, for all intents and purposes, have rendered those faculties totally inactive.”

More worryingly, Logsdon said, “As facts have multiplied, their defenses against those facts have only grown more powerful.”

While scientists have no clear understanding of the mechanisms that prevent the fact-resistant humans from absorbing data, they theorize that the strain may have developed the ability to intercept and discard information en route from the auditory nerve to the brain. “The normal functions of human consciousness have been completely nullified,” Logsdon said.

I'm not sure if I should laugh or cry at the quoted material, for example: In my neck of the woods, roughly 50% of the populace rent their home, of which, the rate of level II charging in these dwellings is darn near zero! At some point, if this does not change, this will constrain EV adoption. Furthermore, the elected and or government officials I've been working with to address this issue are predominantly afflicted by the fact-resistant phenomena. If you look at just about every expensive macro-level issue to our nation, you typically see considerable amount of analysis by entities, (obesity/CDC, energy sustainability/NREL/DOE etc.) and corresponding published best practices, most of the BMP's are stopped dead locally - city councils are often dominated by local small business people that simply do not have an education appropriate for the job. I'd feel much better if the EV interests had something akin to the API, that pursued goals such as mandated EV charging infrastructure in building/development guidelines.

Side note: CA law empowers a renter to install EV charging but at the tenants cost....how many renters are going to gift a charging station to their landlord?

Sorry for the OT post; I will now punch myself twice in the face as penance.

 

[esk8mw]

Although most of us will agree, we're much more aware and informed about what long distance EV trips require. Unfortunately, I think many Bolt buyers will remain ignorant of this fact until they later learn how much of a PITA taking a road trip really ends up being. Regardless, the number of Bolts GM anticipates building (25-50k) will sell easily and remain unnoticeable to Tesla.

I know the number 1 question I get asked about my Model S is how far can it go on a charge followed by how do you take it on road trips. The EV-ignorant around me are generally quite skeptical until you give great answers (280+ miles, I can refill for free in 45 minutes when my nav tells me I need to). If these EV skeptical folks are asking GM dealers (who don't like/aren't knowledgeable about EVs) about the Bolt they are not likely to get satisfactory answers and will continue to be skeptical. I can't imagine people being new to EVs and buying them without fully understanding the charging situation. Especially since a virtually identical car (Sonic) is like $15k. They won't pay a 2x+ premium without knowing the full details.

I suppose GM dealers could try to make the situation sound much rosier than it is re: long-distance travel, but I'd expect buyers to do quite a bit of research before jumping in the EV pool. I know I did (and now will never reenter the ICE pool).

 

[joseph7h]

Tesla Motors, SolarCity Merger Called 'Crazy' as Short-Seller Chanos Says Will Burn $1 Bln/Qtr
BY Midnight Trader
— 1:36 PM ET 09/13/2016

01:36 PM EDT, 09/13/2016 (MT Newswires) -- proposed merger with SolarCity was termed "crazy" by hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, according to a CNBC report.

Shares of Tesla declined 1.6%, while the Solar City stock slumped 4.4% to $17.05 in intraday trading, remaining near the bottom end of its 52-week price range of $16.31 - $58.87.

The short-seller from Kynikos Associates was cited as saying the combined company would burn through $1 billion per quarter and "constantly need access to capital markets."

The fund manager was said to have described SolarCity's business model as "just plain uneconomic."

 

[joseph7h]

The price move today invites more downward actions. Holding onto Tesla shares is not investing, but like waiting to win EM lottery.

 

[davecolene0606]

All this is true... the Model 3 will be a much better car than the Bolt.

However, the Bolt is big news because of what it signifies. Tesla is no longer the sole manufacturer of long-range EVs. GM has made a somewhat affordable long-range EV, which means basically now anyone can do it. This signifies a lot of manufacturers will be getting into the long-range EV market... sure it might take a few years, but they'll come.

Also, the Bolt is significant because GM (w/help of LG) has packed a 60kWh battery at a cell cost of ONLY $8700 ($145/kWh x 60kWh). And this cost is projected to go done significantly in several years. Note: LG, Samsung, and BYD are and will be making their own large gigafactories to also bring down costs further.

Some have noted that LG is providing some tech, and I think that only even more good news for other manufacturers. Since LG probably won't want to charge a premium because they're more interested in growing the overall EV market. So, I imagine LG is selling their other tech (ie., pack-related) at a very, very low cost so that it can attract auto makers and grow their battery business.

As a TSLA investor, I think it's wise not to discount the Bolt and its significance. The Bolt will likely only get better and maybe cheaper over time. And GM and other car makers will be releasing new and better models in the future as well.

Yes, the Bolt won't sell hundreds of thousands of cars right away. That's not the point. For GM, they don't NEED the Bolt to succeed right now. They're planting the seed. It's actually probably smarter to start out selling a smaller number of units to make sure quality is good and to grow demand from there. I'd expect 30-50k cars/year for the first year and then for demand to grow from there if two things happen: 1) if GM can continue to improve the Bolt, 2) they can incrementally lower cost, 3) more long distance charging becomes available.

What does this all mean for Tesla? Well, the Model 3 will do well if it's a great car. Also, the Bolt is in a different market segment than the Model 3. But what it does mean for Tesla is that the competition is coming. It's only a matter of time before we get some great luxury EVs that compete w/Tesla. The days of Tesla having the monopoly on long-range EVs is over. Now Tesla needs to compete more fiercely on performance, value, and other factors.

Congrats, GM. I look forward to test driving the Bolt soon.

Tesla, let's up your game. No more execution mistakes, delays and misses.

Hey Dave, I concur on "No more execution mistakes, delays and misses". I also think Bolt is more than a compliance car. I think GM and others still have the dealer anchor round their necks and lack of volume battery production also remains a drag. I've been lookin for info on others building capacity and if you have some specifics, please share... very important stuff.

As I said earlier Bolt and others still missing the fast charge solution and the fact that the tech for battery and power electronics has been farmed out still gives me pause as to commitment from GM. To be sure, I think they'll sell every Bolt they can build (after bribing the dealers) and from what the Woz sez, they have a kewl interface.

All in all I think it will add to Tesla's market as awareness of long distance/fast charge solutions become more well understood by the EV buying public, which, will buy a little more time for limited competition. But, as you noted this should be notice to Tesla that there ain't no more room for mistakes.

Fire Away!

 

[Vitold]

Love to see Elon tweet a congrats to GM on Bolt (and remind everyone that M3 will have battery size options)

Accelerating the advent of sustainable transportation...

I think this would be a little premature. Once Bolt has sold 30000 copies - congratulations will be in order. Same goes for Model 3. After all sustainable transportation will not happen on good intentions. But we are moving in the right direction and, it appears, GM is not compromising in one area most EVs were lacking (note to GM: I mean range - not looks).

 

[davecolene0606]

The price move today invites more downward actions. Holding onto Tesla shares is not investing, but like waiting to win EM lottery.

UM, way better odds here then the stupid tax.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Holding onto Tesla shares is not investing

And selling for no reason would be what?