Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[GBleck]

Macro is bleh. Looks like oil is week on demand and production is going to create more surpluses maybe? Not great news for stocks competing against the price of oil.

 

[FredTMC]

Model 3 design is final since late June and foundational decisions/components like battery size/configuration/layout long before that. Whatever the Model 3's range is going to be, it's going to be what it is. Unless Tesla re-opens the design phase.

Hold on there, Partner. Have you seen what happened over the last 3 years to Model S battery size options?

Dude, it's the same sized battery casing with various sized kWh options (60, 70, 75, 85, 90, 100)

Same battery compartment.

 

[madodel]

Where can one Super Charge their Bolt when traveling more than 100-150 miles?

 

[Yggdrasill]

Model 3 design is final since late June and foundational decisions/components like battery size/configuration/layout long before that. Whatever the Model 3's range is going to be, it's going to be what it is. Unless Tesla re-opens the design phase.

The design phase is over, but there is still room for tweaks. The Model 3 will likely have a battery pack with room for around 4500-5500 cells. With 17 Wh/cell, you need about 3235 cells for 55 kWh, which is what I think Tesla was planning. This means that there would be 1265-2265 empty cell spaces in the base Model 3.

Tesla could bump the battery pack up to 60 kWh and 3530 cells at fairly minimal cost. Assuming 75 USD/kWh for cells only, 375 USD would be pretty much the entirety of the cost.

 

[Vitold]

Yeah, it's possible tesla bumps the "base model" range up for Model3.

But, the most important thing for public to understand that I haven't read anywhere is that Model3 has BATTERY SIZE OPTIONS (~215 miles is the smallest)

I'm pretty sure that Tesla has not finalized battery size yet. In any case, Tesla has to optimize range to it's supercharger network. Adding more range than necessary only increases cost and weight w/o adding much to utility.

I think the sweet spot is about $250. More range is still appealing but it will not be worth added expense to many people. Correspondingly, lower range, cheaper options will also be attractive but not mainstream for something more than all around town car.

EDIT: lets keep in mind that Bolt's highway miles are a lot less than combined EPA everyone is talking about. Bolt's highway range is below Model 3 minimum 215 mile range AND that at average 55mph speed of EPA cycle.

 

[stealthology]

Elon just tweeted "Newyorker fact" and deleted it right away.. hmm

 

[luca]

Bolt partial preliminary configurator 2017 Bolt EV: All-Electric Vehicle | Chevrolet

Looks like some of theextra cost options will be:
Rear camera/surround vision
CCS DC fast charging
4GLTE
Safety package with Front pedestrian braking, Forward collision alert, Side blind spot alert and Rear cross traffic alert.

I see no reason why the Bolt will not sell well. It should meet many peoples needs and bring many more people to EV awareness. IMHO It does not threaten Tesla. It will help all EVs

why don't you directly buy a chevy sonic at 15K? Exactly same spec

 

[vgrinshpun]

Elon just tweeted "Newyorker fact" and deleted it right away.. hmm

 

[FredTMC]

Elon just tweeted "Newyorker fact" and deleted it right away.. hmm

I still see it. It's an article from May'15.

 

[schonelucht]

Dude, it's the same sized battery casing with various sized kWh options (60, 70, 75, 85, 90, 100)

Design does not stop at the size of the battery casing.

 

[racer26]

Nope, GM,Nissan, and LG Chem have been burned before on rosy plug-in sales projections leading to idle workers and factories. Meaning heavy losses.

Tesla is jumping out of the plane with silk fabric and nylon thread confident they can figure out making a parachute before a hard landing.

I don't really think that ~400k reservations is silk fabric and nylon thread. You're right, the others have been burned before, but now their fear is what will kill them.

Does anybody have access to Bolt specs such as frontal area, mass, perhaps even Cd? Alternatively any educated guesses?

I don't remember the sources, but:
Cd = 0.32
Curb Weight = 3580lb

I assumed frontal area = Chevy Sonic, the car its derived from @ 25.8 sqft.

Do you know the exact size of Bolt's battery? Please remember, that at least Tesla has rounded is battery spec's.

Again, don't have a source offhand for you, but its been reported many times as 60kWh.

Model 3 design is final since late June and foundational decisions/components like battery size/configuration/layout long before that. Whatever the Model 3's range is going to be, it's going to be what it is. Unless Tesla re-opens the design phase.

Model 3 will have multiple battery size options. I would be shocked if it wasn't possible to change the design to add a few extra kWh at this point, still most of a year out from the start of serial production if it was necessary. Remember, they still have to build the beta cars and make the tweaks to the design that they learn from them. All along, though, Elon said "at least 215mi, and we hope a lot more" in the base model, so its entirely possible the base model was already targeting 250.

Where can one Super Charge their Bolt when traveling more than 100-150 miles?

CCS DCFC stations. Which are few and far between. And you need the DCFC option, which will probably bump the price by at least $2k. Otherwise you get to wait 9.5 hours to recharge your Bolt at a 240V station. Should be more like 5h on a Model 3.

 

[FredTMC]

Where can one Super Charge their Bolt when traveling more than 100-150 miles?

You mean "DC Fast charge"?

At a DC fast charge station...

Honestly, as I've mentioned before a "supercharging" network of a couple hundred locations across the US is NOT difficult or expensive to build.

I never thought of supercharging as a competition barrier (moat)

Once a manufacturer is selling 200+ mile EVs it makes sense to add DC fast charging (thru partnerships at a min and/or their own)

 

[FredTMC]

Design does not stop at the size of the battery casing.

Exactly. And no one at tesla meant "pencils down" on battery sizing

 

[GBleck]

Forgot about energy departments declaration that off shore wind is nifty this morning.

 

[racer26]

I never thought of supercharging as a competition barrier (moat)

Once a manufacturer is selling 200+ mile EVs it makes sense to add DC fast charging (thru partnerships at a min and/or their own)

Makes sense to, yes. But the major manufacturers have shown no interest, with some of them explicitly stating that they have no intention of building out a charging network, just as they didn't build out the gas pump network.

 

[Vitold]

You mean "DC Fast charge"?

At a DC fast charge station...

Honestly, as I've mentioned before a "supercharging" network of a couple hundred locations across the US is NOT difficult or expensive to build.

I never thought of supercharging as a competition barrier (moat)

Once a manufacturer is selling 200+ mile EVs it makes sense to add DC fast charging (thru partnerships at a min and/or their own)

I don't think anyone claims that charging network it's an impossible endeavor. However, you cannot dismiss added cost and time needed that increases costs and makes current Bolt versions unattractive for long distance travel.

 

[FredTMC]

Chanos... Shut your pie hole

 

[sunhelm]

May I ask what the prize would be ?

The prize is the reason why you're here in the short term thread. The prize is the fruition or validation of why you invested in Tsla in the first place. The prize, is a little green in my investment portfolio gosh darn it!

 

[FredTMC]

I don't think anyone claims that charging network it's an impossible endeavor. However, you cannot dismiss added cost and time needed that increases costs and makes current Bolt versions unattractive for long distance travel.

Lots on folks think Superchargers are a competive barrier

It's a $20m investment for US network. Not a 1B investment.

Gigafactory? That's a big investment and competitive advantage by Tesla, BYD, etc

 

[FluxCap]

Been a long time, but I just broke the seal on reserve cash and bought calls in the main fund. The negativity meter is in overload.