-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
I just hope it's over with this exchange. I don't think this public spat is a good look for either one of them (TSLA, MBLY) at the moment.
Time will tell who was right.
Sorry; I'm not savvy with marking up and posting charts so I'll describe as best I can. I'm looking at the 5 minute chart for today. If you check the first 5 candles (i.e. first 25 mins of trading) we see the price trying to push below 199, but each candle closed above this level, creating long lines beneath the candles called shadows. This indicates buying pressure - every drop in price was being met by immediate buy up. It's not a bulletproof way of knowing the SP will increase in the short term, but when there's no shares left to short there's a good chance the buying pressure will prevail and the SP will shoot up (as it has right now).
I agree that this back and forth is not helpful, but MBLY has MUCH more to loose if it continues.
larmor
Active Member
I think it was great it came out. It was an indirect way of saying Tesla is never satisfied with the status quo, and they take time and effort to develop products, not just release...
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Just sold SCTY for a loss. Too much uncertainty.....feels too much like gambling, and I suck at gambling.
Holt's company is also backed by one of the largest/smartest VC firms in Silicon Valley (Andreesen Horowitz).
I am wondering if there is below the counter market for TSLA share lending. With all the mm of recalled shares we should have seen much more buying pressure and higher volumes, unless recalled shares are replaced with new borrows that are directly negotiated and therefore not visible by observing the shares available for shorting at various Brokerages.
I think the shorts are just not responding yet to the recall pressure -- they believe TSLA will continue to fall and the buy-in won't hurt them. Many shorts may be so far in the money that it's a worthwhile gamble.
There is always below-the-counter borrowing, but there shouldn't be that many shares available to borrow. Most institutions -- even if they haven't recalled quite yet -- should at least have turned off lending on TSLA. I think we're seeing that in public shares available and recently rising rebate rates.
Most retail customers likely aren't holding these securities in margin accounts -- though that's unclear (e.g., I have a margin account and at least some of TSLA shares are likely still on loan). So retail's approximately 25 million shares aren't available.
What do we actually know as fact? There are few to no shares available to borrow, rebate rates have recently risen and there's very low volume.
Occam's razor time: the simplest explanation is that lenders have stopped lending, shorts aren't covering because they don't want to bid up the price and sellers aren't selling at this level.
I think we will see some very interesting price action (despite macro market activity) through the course of today and Monday.
EDIT: I didn't realize the price action was happening as I was writing this post. That's a pretty big jump on very low volume -- maybe the weaker (less in-the-money) shorts are starting to cover.
If anyone cares about individual trading decisions, I sold all my mbly yesterday to load up on more scty/tsla. 75% weight tesla.
I feel like long scty is very high risk right now but the risk premium seems worth it. (For my risk profile).
I feel like long scty is very high risk right now but the risk premium seems worth it. (For my risk profile).
On this quadruple witching day, and on low volume, it seems perfect environment for market makers to move price up towards maximum pain by end of day
Yea, to your edit - looks like the game is up - TSLA is not tied to market so far today and perhaps forced covering pressure is mounting. Volume is up significantly in the last 15 mins.
Interestingly enough, max pain still sits at $207.5. I take it as it is MM best agregate guess of where we are likely to end up by the end of today.
This is my feel too. For ELON it is a "no brainer". Sufficient reasons to support the merger:
1) The products and staff are complementary for TE business which could be more profitable than cars. Think of Tesla 2017 as a battery manufacturer with a retail front end: cars or grid storage.
2) SCTY's management slowly fouled everything up by dribs and drabs. Elon is chairman but surely he believed the sunshine that his cousins gave him. Maybe this year he realized there was a problem and realized the easiest path to solving it was sweeping it under the TSLA umbrella and fixing/redeploying things.
I have said it before, TSLA would probably lose more market share due to a SCTY BK than SCTY actually costs. TSLA saves money by buying it just to shutter it if that is what it takes. Of course you could argue they lost that market share anyway.
Disclosure: long SCTY/TSLA, 20/80
Here is how I think about the odds of the merger passing: If you are investing in SCTY and/or TSLA you have to understand that a lot of the valuation is goodwill associated with future plans and Elon Halo. Like it or not, Elon's mere presence is providing the confidence for very high multiples. So the same logic that as you investing in these companies means you are in part investing in Elon. He wants the merger. He says it's smart and necessary. So what is your logic in holding these companies and voting down the merger? You are saying we believe in your sweeping vision, but at the same time we don't like your sweeping vision. Keep doing what you were doing but we are going to stymie your big policy initiative. I don't buy it.
This Electrek article is old but it has the straw poll numbers too:
Elon Musk now convinced Tesla-SolarCity merger will pass after talking to major investors
This Electrek article is old but it has the straw poll numbers too:
Elon Musk now convinced Tesla-SolarCity merger will pass after talking to major investors
Mobileye responds to the Tesla Autopilot drama again, only partly refutes claims – no takebacks no erasees Electrek.Co on Twitter
Last edited:
Here's Mobileye, in a video they posted April 2016, showing Tesla AP as the sole example of hands-free driving using their tech. How unsafe it must be!
And then a few weeks later they suddenly change their minds...
And then a few weeks later they suddenly change their minds...
I know there's plenty of good discussion on Q3 deliveries in other threads, but I want to keep some discussion here since it has the most eyeballs.
Does anyone else get the feeling that Tesla is treating this quarter like 2015 Q4? I now think deliveries of 25k+ are possible/probable.
If you browse the X threads, I'm noticing that basically everyone with a VIN (up through 20,4XX so far) has scheduled September delivery - even to far off places like Miami FL. In past quarters, you'd find plenty of examples of people getting pushed out or planning for delivery weeks after quarter-end....here, not so much. Everyone is getting pushed forward. Orders are definitely getting trucked. New and old inventory is turning over. Elon's letter told them to move heaven and earth to crush it in Q3 and that profitability is close. The 24 month lease option through 9/30 has a ton of interest. Lots of cars in transit at end of Q2. I've been burned with over optimistic projections before, but the writing seems to be on the wall this time.
I get the feeling that production has really ramped up and that it's now almost possible to deliver just about everything produced in a quarter (to US customers of course). If production is 2-3 days and deliveries can be done in another 3-5 days, that makes lightning fast order-production-delivery possible. It feels like demand is growing but production is growing even faster. No need to worry about backlog if orders can be turned around at that speed.
I'm not going to be cautious with my investments coming in to quarter end.
Does anyone else get the feeling that Tesla is treating this quarter like 2015 Q4? I now think deliveries of 25k+ are possible/probable.
If you browse the X threads, I'm noticing that basically everyone with a VIN (up through 20,4XX so far) has scheduled September delivery - even to far off places like Miami FL. In past quarters, you'd find plenty of examples of people getting pushed out or planning for delivery weeks after quarter-end....here, not so much. Everyone is getting pushed forward. Orders are definitely getting trucked. New and old inventory is turning over. Elon's letter told them to move heaven and earth to crush it in Q3 and that profitability is close. The 24 month lease option through 9/30 has a ton of interest. Lots of cars in transit at end of Q2. I've been burned with over optimistic projections before, but the writing seems to be on the wall this time.
I get the feeling that production has really ramped up and that it's now almost possible to deliver just about everything produced in a quarter (to US customers of course). If production is 2-3 days and deliveries can be done in another 3-5 days, that makes lightning fast order-production-delivery possible. It feels like demand is growing but production is growing even faster. No need to worry about backlog if orders can be turned around at that speed.
I'm not going to be cautious with my investments coming in to quarter end.
I wouldn't be surprised if there's a growing sentiment among institutional investors (many of whom are invested in TSLA) that TSLA would be better off with someone else at the CEO helm and Elon doing more product/vision stuff. The Elon Halo has evolved... it's no longer that Elon is infallible... it's more like Elon is great in many ways but not all.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
