Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[GoTslaGo]

there's a happy medium to everything in life... being one or the other of either of these "types" of investors is most likely going to end badly... but recognizing both approaches exist and exploring each of them will probably end well... if what you're suggesting is questioning the upside possibility is futile... then I am in complete disagreement with you... this should always be the question. and that's all I was asking.

Agree there is always a happy medium. Just found the statement/query a complete match to his statement!

 

[GoTslaGo]

The simple argument is that they're trying to beat Q3 numbers by a lot so that'll raise the stock price and they can raise another round. But if it was that obvious wouldn't the stock price already start going up? Or is it another "we don't believe you Tesla/Elon" moment where if proven wrong can lead to a massive jump in stock price?

I believe it's the latter.

 

[schonelucht]

Looks like the dam of inventory cars just broke.
$9,300 off inventory Model S 75D - end of Q3 firesale

Ouch. I am much more a skeptic than anyone but even I had already counted on there not be any inventory left anymore in those lower ranges (154k etc). Well if it does turn out they miss and we have to ask ourselves once again after the facts why did we get it so wrong, then at least we know the answer.

 

[dandurston]

I noticed that the facility was swamped, loaded with S and X ready for delivery/pickup. Virtually every parking lot on the front and sides were taken, all the way to the back.

Anyone else worried they might be a bit late with the end of quarter surge? It sounds like all the SCs are packed with cars right now and there's only 7 business days left in the month. Obviously they'll get lots of them delivered but I wouldn't be surprised if 20% of the surge falls into October.

I've also been mildly worried about the discounts of the 75's. On one hand these cars have the same COG as the 60's, so selling them for a ~$6g discount is a win for Tesla and the owner compared to that owner not buying, or buying a 60. The flip side though is that it makes stepping up the 90 a lot bigger jump. Instead of $10g, it becomes $16g for those extra 15 kWh. Someone on the fence is going to step down a 75 for that kind of a price difference. If a decent number of would-be 90 buyers opt for discounted 75's then Tesla's losing a lot of margin.

 

[3Victoria]

.... Or is it another "we don't believe you Tesla/Elon" moment where if proven wrong can lead to a massive jump in stock price?

It's "Yeah yeah we've heard the sizzle before, where's the steak?"

It appears the steak is about to be served.

 

[schonelucht]

I know it's bad karma to care about cash flow, liquidity or profits around here. But they are once again throwing out the leases. $511 a month/7k down on a P90D. Tesla can do it! Remember, these cars were meant to pay for Model 3 development... Instead the shareholders will have to foot the bill I guess. Be ready for that capital raise.

 

[3Victoria]

Are those leases not through a third party? And they are still getting paid for the car, not giving it away.

 

[Turing]

I know it's bad karma to care about cash flow, liquidity or profits around here. But they are once again throwing out the leases. $511 a month/7k down on a P90D. Tesla can do it! Remember, these cars were meant to pay for Model 3 development... Instead the shareholders will have to foot the bill I guess. Be ready for that capital raise.

Where can i find a deal for $511 on p90d lease? Best I've seen was in the $700s?

 

[3Victoria]

I am wondering if all this clearing out is get rid of pre-AP2-hardware cars ... Start fresh. A wee assembly line break to reprogram the robots and voila. (Total speculation and wishful thinking)

 

[GoTslaGo]

I know it's bad karma to care about cash flow, liquidity or profits around here. But they are once again throwing out the leases. $511 a month/7k down on a P90D. Tesla can do it! Remember, these cars were meant to pay for Model 3 development... Instead the shareholders will have to foot the bill I guess. Be ready for that capital raise.

Where? @Turing beat me to it...

 

[schonelucht]

Here is the thread to keep you on top of things @GoTslaGo and @Turing

Key is to find a good owner adviser to work with you. The problem is finding one who is available right now is going to be a nightmare unless you have a previous working relationship. That's why everyone in that thread is routing their requests through @SoCal Jimmy

 

[GoTslaGo]

Here is the thread to keep you on top of things @GoTslaGo and @Turing

I think I'm following the wrong thread...

 

[Turing]

Here is the thread to keep you on top of things @GoTslaGo and @Turing

Key is to find a good owner adviser to work with you. The problem is finding one who is available right now is going to be a nightmare unless you have a previous working relationship. That's why everyone in that thread is routing their requests through @SoCal Jimmy

Seems most of the P90D lease deals are $700ish except that one, which "Wasn't a fully optioned P90D and had a significant discount. It was a classic '16." So it probably had a decent number of test drive miles on it as well. Still great deal, I would definitely consider doing that even though i don't drive a ton in current situation and prefer new look vs classic.

 

[mmd]

Ouch. I am much more a skeptic than anyone but even I had already counted on there not be any inventory left anymore in those lower ranges (154k etc). Well if it does turn out they miss and we have to ask ourselves once again after the facts why did we get it so wrong, then at least we know the answer.

If we sort by VIN #s , on page 3 (201-300) , every other car is an inventory build in some regions of the VIN #s. https://ev-cpo.com/

 

[mrdoubleb]

Wait, who thinks they can deliver 20-23k and have a shot at gaap profitability? From what i've seen 24-25k is where gaap profitability comes into view, no?

Too lazy to find them but there were quite a few people doing this math here and some were in that range. I guess it mainly depends how much one calculates for Tesla stepping on the breaks on R&D and new service centers and superchargers. In any case, I have no clue whether those calculations were even realistic. My point was, that even if you take 25k as the thresholds (especially with this firesale on inventory), the Elon memo makes Tesla scrambling to deliver 25-27k than 27-30k more realistic.

Once again, I won't complain if we end up above 27k just let's try not to make that the baseline expectation that will find its way to media articles citing "sources". Sometimes we are our own worst enemy.

 

[TMSE]

I know it's bad karma to care about cash flow, liquidity or profits around here. But they are once again throwing out the leases. $511 a month/7k down on a P90D. Tesla can do it! Remember, these cars were meant to pay for Model 3 development... Instead the shareholders will have to foot the bill I guess. Be ready for that capital raise.

Once again you are resuming the same FUD. We had argued about it few weeks ago. The P90D car with the least lease payment is a 2015 classic model with several thousand miles on it, almost an used car. And, that lowest lease is around $700/mo, not $511.

Right now, even those new P90D on sale are going for about $1200 a month and 7.5k down. please stop this nonsense, we can see thru it.

 

[schonelucht]

Once again you are resuming the same FUD. We had argued about it few weeks ago. The P90D car with the least lease payment is a 2015 classic model with several thousand miles on it, almost an used car. And, that lowest lease is around $700/mo, not $511.

It was a 2016 car, so no, not almost a used car. For financials what matters is that the (nearly) full discount given will be charged to SG&A. Together with the other thousands of cars sold with hefty discounts (as if $700/month on a loaded P90DL does not mean an equally impressive charge to SG&A) Hence my point : these cars are meant to pay for Model 3 development, but they sure won't.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Has anyone read the following Bloomberg article?

Three Brothers Seek to Overtake Tesla With Souped-Up Plug-In Cars

There are some interesting details about their battery pack construction that seem a little hard to believe when compared to Tesla.

"Kreisel’s strategy is threefold. It makes battery packs and electric drive trains for orders as big as 10,000 vehicles. It designs lithium-battery production lines for original-equipment manufacturers. And it creates prototypes for top-tier carmakers"

“We already have two contracts with two companies, one of which is bigger than Tesla and will actually build 100,000 cars over the next two years,” said Markus Kreisel, who declined to be more specific.

Kreisel Electric burst onto the Austrian and German automobile scene with a reworked Porsche Panamera that outperformed Tesla’s flagship Model S on some measures. The Austrian company says its patented laser-welding and thermal-cooling techniques give them an edge over Tesla because the method preserves the full power of the lithium-ion cells"

As orders grow, Kreisel anticipates a steep drop in battery prices, from about $140 a kilowatt hour now to less than $100 a kilowatt-hour.

“The sales price today for large volumes over 100,000 cars would already be under $100,” said Kreisel, who buys cells from vendors including Panasonic Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. “Unfortunately, nobody’s making 100,000 cars today.”

These prices seem too low compared to what is estimated at Tesla, especially considering the difference in the scale on which Tesla works. Is Tesla already getting their cells for less that $100 per KWh?

Also, does anyone know what is being referred to regarding the lack of preservation of full power in Tesla packs?

 

[Fallenone]

wrt discounts, margins, and profits. I made some calculations over the past weekend and posted the summary in another thread. I'll cross post it here

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1736190/

TL;DR: gross margin shouldn't take a hit even with the 60 and the discounts we've been seeing lately. Sure, it won't be as high as no discounts, but compared to past two quarters, it shouldn't take a hit and more likely to rise a tiny bit. All thanks to increased production.

I also got non-GAAP gross profit of $552M from cars, assuming 14.7k Model S and 10.1k Model X. Whether this could cover the spending, I don't know. Q2 non-GAAP SG&A + interests was $503M.

 

[Gerardf]

Has anyone read the following Bloomberg article?
Three Brothers Seek to Overtake Tesla With Souped-Up Plug-In Cars
These prices seem too low compared to what is estimated at Tesla, especially considering the difference in the scale on which Tesla works. Is Tesla already getting their cells for less that $100 per KWh?

Ran into that yesterday as well, and had the same thoughts about the pricing. I found it hard to believe.
Browsed their website as well. Got the impression they had a very good look at how Tesla does things.